The 2020 MLB regular season is less than four weeks old and yet the trade deadline is less than two weeks away. The Aug. 31 deadline is right around the corner and teams don't have much more time to evaluate their roster, determine their trade deadline approach, and pursue upgrades. We've already reached trade deadline crunch time.
This year's trade deadline will be unusual for many reasons. Not only do teams have less time to evaluate their roster (and evaluate trade targets), but so many more teams are in the race thanks to the expanded postseason. You can count on one hand the number of teams more than three games out of a postseason spot right now.
Buyers figure to outnumber sellers at the deadline but who really knows? Money is expected to be tight following the COVID-19 pandemic and rentals may be less desirable given the possibility the season (or an individual team) is shut down at some point in September. No one wants to give up a prospect(s) for a rental only to have the season wiped out.
Here are a few things to know as we head into 2020 trade deadline season:
- The trade deadline is 4 p.m. ET on Monday, Aug. 31. Waiver trades after that date are not allowed.
- Players must be in the organization at 11:59 p.m. ET on Sept. 15 to be eligible for the postseason roster.
- Only players included in a team's 60-man player pool are eligible to be traded this year.
Teams can get around the third point with players to be named later. If a trade partner wants a player not included in your 60-man player pool, you can use a player to be named as a placeholder. Make the trade now, then, once the season ends and everyone is eligible to be traded, that player is named. Richard Bleier was dealt for a player to be named earlier this month.
There is no getting around the first and second points. The Aug. 31 trade deadline is a hard deadline -- MLB eliminated August and September waiver trades last year and they were not brought back this year -- and any player acquired after the trade deadline (via waivers or free agency) must be in the organization by Sept. 15 to be eligible for the postseason. No exceptions.
R.J. Anderson looked at the top 25 trade candidates earlier this week. Now let's take a moment to examine each MLB team and attempt to discern their trade deadline approach. Are they a buyer or seller? Heck, some teams may do both. Here's a look at each club with the trade deadline less than two weeks away.
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Sportsline postseason odds: 52.7 percent The Diamondbacks started the season very poorly and they've done a nice job digging out of that hole, but, as their postseason odds suggest, they still have a ways to go. Their impending free agents include lefties Andrew Chafin and Robbie Ray -- Ray has really struggled this season -- and role players Jon Jay and Jake Lamb. A year ago Ray was a significant trade chip. Now his value is way down and he's unlikely to receive a qualifying offer after the season. Arizona may take whatever they can get for him at the deadline and look to replace him with a non-rental who can help them next year and beyond. A lower scale version of last year's "trade Zack Greinke and add Zac Gallen" sequence, basically. This unusual season has been, well, unusual for the D-Backs. I don't expect it to alter their trade deadline approach much. They'll march forward with the big picture in mind. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 85.0 percent The rotation is in shambles. Mike Soroka's hurt and done for the season. Cole Hamels is hurt and could return in September. Mike Foltynewicz is so compromised he went unclaimed on waivers. The Braves have a powerhouse offense and a clear need in the rotation. History tells us GM Alex Anthopoulos will be aggressive at the deadline -- he added Troy Tulowitzki and David Price in deadline deals while with Toronto, and last year he imported Shane Greene, Chris Martin, Mark Melancon, and others -- and there's no reason to believe this year will be any different. The Braves and Giants matched up last year for the Melancon trade. Is there a Johnny Cueto deal to be made this year? The money would be an obstacle (Cueto is owed $21 million in 2021) but it's a potential fit. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 36.2 percent The Orioles are a surprise contender early this season though I expect GM Mike Elias to stay the course with the rebuild rather than give up young players or prospects for immediate MLB help. He already traded Bleier last month and it feels like only a matter of time until Mychal Givens is dealt as well. Alex Cobb is healthy and has pitched well in the early going. With the pitching market unsettled, Cobb may be one of the best available starters, and Elias could jump on the opportunity to move him. Rentals like Jose Iglesias, Wade LeBlanc, and Tommy Milone won't be off-limits. Maybe not Hanser Alberto or Pedro Severino either. I wouldn't rule out the O's pursuing a young player who can help in 2021 and beyond. Those are hard to come by though. Seller until proven otherwise. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 9.1 percent Woof. What a disaster this season has been for the Red Sox. At this point, there is no amount of buying that can quickly repair a pitching staff that owns by far the worst ERA in baseball. The sell-off started with the Mookie Betts trade in February and will continue at the deadline with impending free agents like Jackie Bradley Jr., Mitch Moreland, Martin Perez, Kevin Pillar, and Brandon Workman. Hard to see a reason for Boston to keep them at this point. The deadline x-factor: J.D. Martinez. He's owed a lot of money ($19.375 million each in 2021 and 2022) and he can opt out after this season, though that seems unlikely with the free agent market expected to be depressed. Martinez has been just OK this year. If a team still views him as a difference-maker and he's available in a salary dump, maybe a trade happens. Bradley, Moreland, Perez, Pillar, and especially Workman are prime trade deadline fodder though. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 97.1 percent Coming into the season it wasn't hard to see scenarios in which the Cubs crashed and sold at the deadline, or started hot and were aggressive buyers. They're a clear buyer now and the bullpen figures to be the No. 1 priority. I wouldn't expect the Cubbies to subtract from their MLB roster though I do wonder whether there's a rebuilding team out there willing to roll the dice on Albert Almora, a former high draft pick and top prospect who's fallen out of favor and hasn't played much this year. Almora for a rental (or non-contender candidate) reliever could make sense. The Mariners and Orioles stand out as rebuilding teams with a need in the outfield and bullpen arms to peddle. Either way, expect the Cubs to go hard after relievers at the deadline. This might be their last chance to win with this core and the bullpen is a clear weakness. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 60.3 percent It has been an uneven start to the season for the White Sox but they didn't sign Dallas Keuchel and Yasmani Grandal to multi-year contracts this past winter only to sell at the deadline. They're going to add. Chicago has been hit hard by pitching injuries -- Aaron Bummer (biceps), Reynaldo Lopez (shoulder), and Carlos Rodon (shoulder) are all on the injured list -- plus Michael Kopech opted out of the season, so pitching is a clear need prior to Aug. 31. Another reliever wouldn't hurt either. Given the shutdown and their future payroll commitments, it seems unlikely the ChiSox will take on a player owed significant dollars beyond 2020. A lower-cost rental like, say, Kevin Gausman or Martin Perez may be a more realistic option than someone like Alex Cobb or Johnny Cueto. The Leury Garcia (thumb) and Nick Madrigal (shoulder) injuries could push the White Sox into the market for a versatile bench player. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 40.5 percent The Reds didn't spend all that money in free agency to not make a run at an expanded postseason berth. The rotation is so good and the offense is plenty good enough, especially once Eugenio Suarez gets on track. The bullpen is another matter. Breakout righty Lucas Sims needs some help in the late innings. The hunch here is Cincinnati will be active in the "rental reliever for a player to be named later" market. The Mariners have about five bullpen arms who make sense for the Reds and a multi-reliever trade is possible. Not sure I'd call it likely, but it seems doable. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 97.8 percent Cleveland perfected the "buy and sell" strategy last deadline when they subtracted Trevor Bauer while adding Logan Allen, Franmil Reyes, and Yasiel Puig. The big name here is obviously Francisco Lindor, but gosh, I have a hard time believing he'll be dealt at the deadline. That's not a trade you want to rush into and besides, Cleveland is in the race. Try to win with Lindor while you can. A more likely candidate for the "buy and sell" strategy: Carlos Carrasco. He's owed $12 million each of the next two seasons -- that's rather expensive for a small-market club loaded with young arms -- and his 10-and-5 no-trade protection kicks in next April. If Cleveland is going to move him, the clock is ticking. The club desperately needs offense and outfield help in general. Carrasco for multiple young players who can step directly into the lineup feels like a distinct possibility. If not, I'd still expect the club to address their offense at the deadline. A lower cost outfielder like Matt Joyce or Kevin Pillar would represent a big upgrade for this team. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 63.2 percent It feels like only yesterday Nolan Arenado said he felt "disrespected" by the team's offseason activity and trade speculation was running rampant. Now the Rockies are firmly in the postseason picture. There is no such thing as too much pitching, especially in Colorado, so I would expect the Rockies to pursue extra arms even with the bullpen settled and (most of) the rotation performing admirably. Outfield help and a catcher would be worthwhile additions too. Sam Hilliard and Tony Wolters aren't cutting it. If the Marlins decide to sell, they'd match up well with Colorado. Brandon Kintzler, Francisco Cervelli, and Matt Joyce are all rentals and would represent upgrades for the Rockies. Those are the types of players I expect Colorado to pursue. Lower-cost rentals to boost their 2020 chances without tying down future payroll rather than a big name addition with long-term control. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 7.4 percent The hot start has given way to a cool down period, so expect Tigers GM Al Avila to stay the course with the rebuild rather than attempt quick-fix trades. Matthew Boyd's collapse has crushed his trade value and, unless a team comes in with a really strong offer, it might be best to hold on to him and hope he rebuilds value in a (hopefully) normal 2021 season. Michael Fulmer is an interesting case. He's looked mostly good in his return from Tommy John surgery and is under team control through 2021. The Tigers missed their opportunity to trade him for maximum value a few years ago, but the hunch here is he is still highly regarded around the league. If the Tigers move anyone at the deadline, it'll like be a veteran rental (Cameron Maybin, Jonathan Schoop, Austin Romine) or a bullpen arm (Joe Jimenez, maybe even Gregory Soto). | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 95.4 percent It has been a bumpy three weeks for the Astros and yet I have no reason to believe GM James Click will do anything other than buy at the deadline. This is a win-now roster. You don't tear this down and start a rebuild because the first three weeks of this unusual season didn't go exactly according to plan. If you're Click, I think you have to assume the offense will be fine -- George Springer is healthy and you trust Jose Altuve to turn it around -- and focus on improving a pitching staff that has been decimated by injuries. Another starter and another reliever feels like an absolute must. Given their future payroll situation, rentals are the likely targets, though I wouldn't rule out Click getting creative and adding long-term pieces. The Astros had interest in Matthew Boyd last trade deadline. Could they revisit that -- clearly they believe they can help Boyd gain more consistency -- now that his trade value is way down and get a potential bargain? | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 17.0 percent The Royals are one of the few clear-cut sellers heading into the deadline and they have several attractive pieces to offer. There is bound to be a market for relievers (and impending free agents) Greg Holland, Ian Kennedy, and Trevor Rosenthal. GM Dayton Moore wouldn't be doing his job if he didn't make starters Danny Duffy, Jakob Junis, and Brad Keller available as well. They're all under contract or team control beyond 2020 but the Royals have a lot of young pitching coming, and if one or all of those guys can net you help elsewhere, you make that move. Moore has resisted trading Whit Merrifield to date and I don't expect that to change prior to the deadline unless someone blows him away with an offer. I expect Kansas City to deal several pitchers before Aug. 31. Those relievers have real value even in this weird, short season. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 21.2 percent The Angels have to buy right? You don't sign Anthony Rendon to that contract only to turn around and sell at the deadline in a season with an expanded postseason field no matter how poorly you start (and they've been terrible). Pitching is priority No. 1, 2, and 3 in Anaheim. They could use a starter to replace Shohei Ohtani and as many bullpen arms as they can find. One possibility: trading for a starter with multiple years of control, then flipping impending free agent Julio Teheran elsewhere to offset salary and recoup a prospect. The Angels want to get back to the postseason and Billy Eppler, their general manager, is in the final year of his contract. A team desperate to play postseason baseball and a lame duck GM trying to save his job is a recipe for trade deadline chaos. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 100.0 percent The Dodgers have done fine work balancing the present with the future in recent years. Their seller trades (Alex Wood and Yasiel Puig to the Reds, Kenta Maeda to the Twins, the failed Joc Pederson/Ross Stripling trade with the Angels) are limited to the offseason, however, and the deadline focus is on the here and now (Yu Darvish, Manny Machado, etc.). Los Angeles does not have a clear weakness but there are always ways to improve. Additional pitching to replace Wood (shoulder) and Joe Kelly (shoulder) could be in the cards, and keep an eye on Will Smith's neck issue. If that flares up again, the Dodgers may seek depth behind the plate. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is in an enviable position. He doesn't have to do anything at the deadline and can instead survey the market, and jump on any opportunities that make sense. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 25.1 percent The Marlins could go either way at the moment. An expanded postseason spot is within reach thanks to their strong start -- they're expected to get some of their players on the COVID-19 IL back reasonably soon -- and it's hard for me to think they'll pull the rug out from under their players and manager Don Mattingly, and pick the team apart for scraps at the deadline. At the same time, it's the Marlins, and they don't really deserve the benefit of the doubt. If they sell, impending free agents like Francisco Cervelli, Matt Joyce, and Brandon Kintzler are among their top trade chips. If they buy, it'll be lower-cost rentals. Think Kevin Pillar or Jonathan Schoop or Kevin Gausman. No one who will cost an arm and a leg (a fin and a sail?) will tangibly improve the team's chances to reach the postseason. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 72.7 percent The second spot in the NL Central is up for grabs and the Brewers have made it clear in recent years they will go for it. The bullpen has been great! The offense has been dreadful, even Christian Yelich, and the rotation behind Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser leaves something to be desired. Truth be told, the Brewers need the guys currently on the roster (i.e. Ryan Braun, Keston Hiura, Omar Narvaez, etc.) to perform better, otherwise whatever they do at the deadline won't be enough to stay in the race. Milwaukee prefers smart, lower-cost pickups to the splashy big-name addition. Jackie Bradley Jr. would make sense in the wake of Lorenzo Cain's opt out. Donovan Solano would be a big upgrade over their current third base situation. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 99.5 percent The infield has been surprisingly weak this season and Josh Donaldson is again dealing with a nagging calf injury, with his return timetable uncertain. Unless they surprisingly bench Luis Arraez, it's unlikely the Twins will shake up the infield, however. They figure to stick with their guys and hope they right the ship. The Homer Bailey and Rich Hill injuries could push the Twins into the market for low-cost rotation depth, and there's room on the roster for a better bench bat, otherwise Minnesota doesn't have a significant need at this point in time. Any deadline moves will be about minor tweaks to an already strong roster rather than overhaul. I like them as a fit for Brandon Workman. A righty reliever who can spin the hell out of a breaking ball would be a nice weapon to have against the Astros and Yankees come postseason time. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 26.7 percent The Mets are the Mets, and they always seem to be on the precipice of disaster, but there's no reason to believe they will do anything other than buy at the deadline. They're in the race and nothing in GM Brodie Van Wagenen's brief history suggests he'll throw in the towel on the season. Noah Syndergaard is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and Marcus Stroman opted out of the season, so the rotation is currently Jacob deGrom, David Peterson, and pray for three days of rain. Rotation help is the single biggest need and, with Stroman, Rick Porcello, and Michael Wacha impending free agents, a pitcher who is under control in 2021 would be ideal. Royals righty Brad Keller stands out as a sensible trade target, should Kansas City make him available. Rental Robbie Ray at a discount is another possibility. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 99.9 percent For the Yankees, 2020 is playing out a lot like 2019, except now they have Gerrit Cole. They've lost key players to injury (Aaron Judge, Tommy Kahnle, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Luis Severino) and the rotation has a few weak spots, yet they keep piling up wins. With James Paxton struggling and compromised, and Kahnle done for the season with Tommy John surgery, the smart money is on GM Brian Cashman targeting pitching help at the deadline. They had interest in Robbie Ray last deadline and could revisit that now that the price has presumably dropped. Should Cleveland put Carlos Carrasco on the market, the Yankees have the young bats to offer (Miguel Andujar, Clint Frazier, etc.) and would be an obvious trade match. Don't sleep on New York adding to its already deep bullpen in the wake of the Kahnle injury, either via a rental or non-rental. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 99.7 percent Truth be told, the Athletics need the players already on their roster to play to the back of their baseball cards more than they need outside help. Khris Davis, Mike Fiers, Sean Manaea, and Marcus Semien have all massively underperformed -- that quartet has combined for minus-1.9 WAR this year -- and getting them on track is better than any trade the A's could make. There's no such thing as too much pitching depth, and with A.J. Puk (shoulder) hurt and Frankie Montas (back) a little beat up, importing a depth arm wouldn't be a bad idea. Oakland strikes me as an ideal landing spot for Robbie Ray or Ken Giles, two potential impact rentals whose value is way down. The reward is potentially huge and, if they don't work out, it's not the end of the world. The A's are really good as it is. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 56.0 percent If you're a rebuilding team with bullpen arms to spare, I assume you've already been contacted by Phillies GM Matt Klentak. Offensively, there's not much the Phillies can do other than wait for Rhys Hoskins and Andrew McCutchen to turn it around, and the Aaron Nola-Zack Wheeler one-two punch has been marvelous. The bullpen though? Oy vey. It has been a constant source of headache for new manager Joe Girardi. Rental, long-term control, whatever. Expect the Phillies to be in on any and all relievers at the deadline. Orioles setup man Mychal Givens strikes me as an obvious fit. A back-end innings eater for the rotation could also be on the shopping list depending how patient the club is willing to be with young Spencer Howard. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 1.2 percent What does a seller do when they don't have much to sell? Hope some team gets desperate, I guess. Closer Keone Kela recently returned after missing the start of the season with COVID-19 and is the club's best trade chip. Adam Frazier is better than he's shown this year, but do the Pirates want to move him while his value is down? The same goes for Josh Bell and Joe Musgrove, who is out with a triceps injury. One under-the-radar trade candidate: Jacob Stallings. Stallings is not much of a hitter, but he's a great defender behind the plate, and he is under team control through 2024. Catching is always in demand and Pittsburgh would be foolish not to listen to offers for Stallings. Otherwise Kela and fellow righty reliever Richard Rodriguez are the best they realistically have to offer before Aug. 31. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 70.9 percent Hard to get a read on the Cardinals simply because they haven't played many games. It is not really in this organization's DNA to sell, however, so I'm gonna slap the buyer label on them. The offense has a few too many underperforming veterans (Matt Carpenter, Kolten Wong, etc.) -- top prospect Dylan Carlson will help some -- and those guys aren't easy to push aside. In the 28-man roster era, the Cardinals have room for a dangerous platoon bat like Matt Joyce. The pitching staff has been thinned out by COVID-19 cases and adding depth there figures to be a priority. I'm not sure the Cardinals have a big move in them prior to Aug. 31, but I suspect they'll do something to improve the roster. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 35.8 percent Force me to pick a team, and I'd say the Padres are most likely to make a blockbuster addition at the trade deadline. They're in the postseason race, they have a very deep farm system and plenty of prospects to trade, and there's a sense of desperation too. The Padres have not been to the postseason since 2006 and they don't want to just get there, they want to be in a position to make noise in October. Should an impact starter hit the market (Trevor Bauer? Carlos Carrasco?), the Padres could very well pounce knowing how formidable a Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack, Garrett Richards, Mystery Starter rotation would be in a short postseason series. San Diego has gotten basically nothing from Austin Hedges and Francisco Mejia behind the plate, though a move for a catcher would surprise me. I don't think the Padres will focus on upgrading the margins. I think there's a chance they go big in preparation for a deep postseason run. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 7.4 percent Is it possible to trade Johnny Cueto and the $21 million he's owed next season post-shutdown? He's flashed greatness at times this year and it's easy to dream on a guy like Cueto having an impact down the stretch, in the postseason, and again next year. At the same time, that's a lot of money in 2021. The Giants should be willing to eat some (or most) of it to facilitate a trade and get as much young talent as possible in return. It's unclear whether they're willing to do that. In what looks to be a thin pitching market, San Francisco should be open to all options with Cueto. Other trade chips include relievers Trevor Gott and Tony Watson, and they'd be silly not to listen to offers for Donovan Solano, who turns 33 in December and is in the middle of the best month of his life. It should be noted the Giants did not trade Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith at the deadline last year, instead opting to take the draft picks after the season rather than accept a package they didn't love. The Cueto, Gott, Solano, and Watson situations are very different because there's no draft pick to fall back on. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 2.4 percent So much for the Mariners ending the longest active postseason drought in North American professional sports during a 60-game season with an expanded postseason. Seattle could try to unload Kyle Seager and Dee Gordon but that that seems unlikely given their contracts. (Seager's $15 million club option for 2022 becomes a player option if he's traded and no team is taking that on.) More likely, the Mariners will peddle their various bullpen arms (Dan Altavilla, Matt Magill, etc.) and perhaps Taijuan Walker as well. Also, it wouldn't hurt to listen to offers to super utility man Dylan Moore. The Mariners can kinda sorta see the light at the end of the rebuilding tunnel but there's still more work to be done. It only makes sense to shop those relievers. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 97.9 percent The Rays are going to do what they always seem to do at the deadline, and that's add while subtracting. Last year they picked up Nick Anderson and Jesus Aguilar but parted with Ryne Stanek and Adam Kolarek. The year before they unloaded Nathan Eovaldi, Wilson Ramos, Alex Colome, and others only to turn around and bring in Tommy Pham. The Rays are hard predict but I'd bet on a similar strategy. A reallocation of resources, basically. Pitching is a need with Oliver Drake, Andrew Kittredge, Brendan McKay, Charlie Morton, and Colin Poche all hurt. When in doubt, bet on Tampa bringing in high spin rate guys with funky arm angles. The Rays are going to buy at the deadline and they're going to sell. It's what they do. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 33.5 percent The master plan was contending in Year 1 of Globe Life Field. COVID-19 threw a giant wrench into things but the goal remains the same. The Rangers want to play in October and will act accordingly at the deadline. Are they willing to push the slumping Willie Calhoun aside and add a DH? If so, I'm going to throw a name out there: Jorge Soler. Soler is a year away from free agency and it's unclear whether the Royals will be able to sign him long-term. They figure to be able to get more for him now than in the offseason or next trade deadline. Aside from a bat, the Rangers could really use some bullpen help, and I'd expect them to be aggressive in the lower-cost rental market. There's a need and they're motivated. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 22.7 percent In an alternate universe, the Blue Jays are buyers at the deadline because their young hitters all took steps forward and the new-look rotation was good to great. That hasn't happened. A few of the young hitters (Vladimir Guerrero Jr., mostly) have struggled and the rotation has been more miss than hit. Toronto's top trade chip is closer Ken Giles, who landed on the injured list with an elbow injury three days into the season after batting elbow woes much of last year. Giles starting playing catch this past weekend and may return before the deadline. Even if he does, his stock is way down, and the Blue Jays may take whatever they can get for him rather than lose him for nothing in free agency this offseason. Found money relievers like Anthony Bass and A.J. Cole should be available and there's no reason to make Chase Anderson off-limits either. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 65.3 percent It's really hard for me to see the Nationals as a seller. It might take only 31 wins to get second place in the NL East, and as long as that rotation core is intact, they're going to go for it. Stephen Strasburg's hand issue and Anibal Sanchez's awful start have created a need in the rotation, and this team always seems to need another bullpen arm or three. With Starlin Castro hurt and so much of the lineup not really doing anything, the Nationals could use another bat, and they can fit that guy just about anywhere on the field. Infield, outfield, whatever. They can make it work. Could J.D. Martinez be a fit here? I suppose it depends whether the Nationals expect the universal DH to become permanent next year. If not Martinez, then someone like Giants outfielder Alex Dickerson could work. | |
