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  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    +793
    (60%)
    34-23-3 in Last 60 NFL Picks
    IND -3
    -115
    Spread
    WIN
    Picked: Sep 28 @ 10:42am

    Analysis

    This is a great time to fade one of these teams, with the Commanders catching 4.5 on the lookahead before the surprise win against the Seahawks. Despite the result, Washington was outmatched in that game, gaining just 4 yards per play while allowing 6.8 per play. Just one Commanders drive went longer than 43 yards despite their point total. The Colts held the Texans to 223 yards of offense, and while it's true Houston is down receivers, the Texans moved the ball more easily the previous week. I think Colts -4.5 was the right number, so I'll lay the key number here.
  • expert headshot
    Alex Selesnick
    PropStarz
    player headshot
    J. Taylor
    Under 90.5
    -112
    Rushing Yards
    LOSS
    Picked: Sep 29 @ 11:04pm

    Analysis

    Jonathan Taylor will face one of the leagues best run defense this week when he takes on a Commanders defense that has been elite versus RBs. The Commanders have surrendered just 166 yards to opposing RBs despite facing the Eagles, Seattle, and Dallas. Jonathan Taylor is averaging under 4.0 YPC and the Colts offense is sputtering right now. I had this spot circled after coming away extremely impressed with the Washington run defense. I expect the defensive gameplan to center around slowing down Taylor.
  • expert headshot
    Larry Hartstein
    The Maestro
    player headshot
    J. Downs
    Over 63.5
    -114
    Receiving Yards
    LOSS
    Picked: Oct 1 @ 12:18am

    Analysis

    Josh Downs drew 10 targets in Week 3 as Alec Pierce remains sidelined. Downs leads the NFL in average separation score, per Fantasy Points. In other words, he's getting open consistently. This is a dream matchup against Washington's terrible secondary. Look for Downs to post 70-plus receiving yards for the third straight game.
  • expert headshot
    Adam Thompson
    +168
    (63%)
    5-3 in Last 8 NFL ATS Picks
    IND -3.5
    -122
    Spread
    WIN
    Picked: Oct 2 @ 2:36pm

    Analysis

    Kudos to Marcus Mariota in his play vs. perhaps the NFL's premier defense last week. The Colts' defense ranks dead-last in the NFL. But now there's game film of Mariota, and all teams know what to do. No Terry McLaurin will be a problem for Mariota, and the Commanders' 31st-ranked pass defense could offer opportunities for Daniel Jones. Jonathan Taylor and the Colts should have their way up front against an overachieving-but-susceptible Commanders front.
  • expert headshot
    Mike Tierney
    +155
    (58%)
    7-5 in Last 12 NFL Picks
    WAS +4.5
    -112
    Spread
    LOSS
    Picked: Oct 2 @ 4:26pm

    Analysis

    QBs who started in Weeks 2 and 3 after being on the bench for the openers' kickoffs are 6-0 straight-up. Perhaps none looked better than Marcus Mariota, who delivered 33 points against Seattle. Any QB might be able to handle Indy's worst-ranked defense (417 ypg). On offense, Colts cornerstone RB Jonathan Taylor has yet to get untracked; there’ve been no 100-yard games. The drought could continue against the third-rated rush defense. Wash tight end Chig Okonkwo and linebacker Frankie Luvu have rehabbed from injuries and will return. Underdogs are always worth considering in these overseas games.

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