NFC Championship - Green Bay Packers v San Francisco 49ers
Getty Images

Brandon Aiyuk has looked like himself the past two weeks, which is awesome for anyone who stuck it out. It's also why you'll see Aiyuk atop most wide receiver waiver wire priority lists this week. And that includes mine. But there is another question. What does that mean for 2021's biggest breakout at wide receiver, Deebo Samuel?

In the 49ers' first game with Aiyuk, Samuel and Kittle all at full strength, we saw a very even target split. Samuel led the team with a 23.1% share, while Kittle and Aiyuk were right behind him at 20.5% each. This is quite a contrast from Samuel's 34% target share from Weeks 1-8. 

One potential benefit to Samuel seeing fewer targets would be if Kittle and Aiyuk draw more attention, which increases Samuel's efficiency. But the third-year wide receiver is already averaging 18 yards per catch and 10.9 yards per target. If anything, a dip in efficiency should be expected in addition to a dip in targets.

What does this all mean? Well, I have Samuel ranked 18th at wide receiver this week, and that's with four teams on bye. Rest of season, I'd call him more of a low-end No. 2 receiver with big weekly upside if Kittle and Aiyuk stay heavily involved. That's a big if, and provides room for Samuel to be much better than I'm projecting in the second half. But there's also significant risk that the team turns to Trey Lance at some point and the passing game collapses. 

Here is the rest of the Week 10 WR Preview:

Week 10 WR Preview
WR Preview
Who's Out

The following players are not being projected to play Week 10 at this time. Here's what it means:

NE New England • #11
Age: 29 • Experience: 8 yrs.
Jaylen Waddle should remain the Dolphins' alpha No. 1.
WR Preview
Numbers to Know
  • 32.3% -- Deebo Samuel still leads all players with a 32.3% target share.
  • 194 -- Jakobi Meyers has now seen 194 targets without a touchdown. Since the NFL started counting targets in 1992, no player has more targets without a touchdown.
  • 41.2% -- Tyler Lockett is responsible for 41.2% of Seattle's air yards, the fourth-highest mark in the league. The return of Russell Wilson makes Lockett a starter again.
  • 81 -- Ja'Marr Chase has 81 yards over his past two games on 22 targets. He's on a bye this week, so you might check in with his Fantasy manager and see if you can buy low.
  • 24.1 -- The Bills have held opposing wide receivers to 24.1 PPR Fantasy points per game, by far the best mark in the league. You should add Elijah Moore, but you should not be starting him.
  • 0 -- Michael Pittman does not have a drop this season. His 71 targets are the most without a drop.
  • 17.4 -- Emmanuel Sanders 17.4 aDOT is the highest among receivers with at least 20 targets. It's also why he's so unreliable.
  • 10.6 -- Hunter Renfrow has scored at least 10.6 PPR Fantasy points in seven of eight games. 
  • 16 -- Robert Woods' 16 red-zone targets are second only to Cooper Kupp
WR Preview
Matchups that matter
Matchups that matter
Projections powered by Sportsline
NYJ N.Y. Jets • #8
Age: 22 • Experience: 2 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs BUF BUF -13 O/U 47.5
OPP VS WR
1st
PROJ PTS
7.7
WR RNK
40th
YTD Stats
REC
22
TAR
40
REYDS
230
TD
3
FPTS/G
9.4
MIA Miami • #17
Age: 23 • Experience: Rookie
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs BAL BAL -7.5 O/U 46.5
OPP VS WR
6th
PROJ PTS
12.6
WR RNK
20th
YTD Stats
REC
56
TAR
78
REYDS
496
TD
3
FPTS/G
13.5
CLE Cleveland • #80
Age: 29 • Experience: 9 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ NE NE -1.5 O/U 45.5
OPP VS WR
17th
PROJ PTS
11.7
WR RNK
31st
YTD Stats
REC
19
TAR
29
REYDS
193
TD
1
FPTS/G
8.8
PHI Philadelphia • #6
Age: 23 • Experience: 2 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ DEN DEN -2.5 O/U 44
OPP VS WR
16th
PROJ PTS
12.9
WR RNK
28th
YTD Stats
REC
38
TAR
62
REYDS
537
TD
2
FPTS/G
11.5
LV Las Vegas • #13
Age: 26 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs KC KC -2.5 O/U 51.5
OPP VS WR
13th
PROJ PTS
13.9
WR RNK
24th
YTD Stats
REC
45
TAR
60
REYDS
448
TD
3
FPTS/G
13.5
WR Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Week 10 Waivers
JAC Jacksonville • #39
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ IND IND -10.5 O/U 47.5
OPP VS WR
30th
WR RNK
37th
ROSTERED
11%
YTD Stats
REC
21
TAR
31
REYDS
211
TD
1
FPTS/G
6.4
The Colts secondary has leaked plenty and Agnew remains one of Trevor Lawrence's favorite targets.
BAL Baltimore • #12
Age: 22 • Experience: Rookie
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ MIA BAL -8.5 O/U 46.5
OPP VS WR
31st
WR RNK
43rd
ROSTERED
63%
YTD Stats
REC
12
TAR
20
REYDS
161
TD
0
FPTS/G
9.4
Now we wait to see how Bateman looks with Sammy Watkins back.
Stashes
NYJ N.Y. Jets • #8
Age: 22 • Experience: 2 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs BUF BUF -13 O/U 47.5
OPP VS WR
1st
WR RNK
40th
ROSTERED
14%
YTD Stats
REC
22
TAR
40
REYDS
230
TD
3
FPTS/G
9.4
If you don't need a receiver for Week 10, Moore would be my second favorite add behind only Brandon Aiyuk.
WR Preview
DFS Plays
Top Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
PIT Pittsburgh • #18
Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs DET PIT -8.5 O/U 42.5
OPP VS WR
9th
PROJ PTS
18.6
WR RNK
10th
YTD Stats
REC
45
TAR
69
REYDS
530
TD
3
FPTS/G
17.1
Johnson has a great matchup against the Lions and it looks like the Steelers will be without Chase Claypool. Ignore his recent struggles and fire him up.
Contrarian Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
SEA Seattle • #16
Age: 29 • Experience: 8 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ GB GB -3.5 O/U 49.5
OPP VS WR
10th
PROJ PTS
14.1
WR RNK
18th
YTD Stats
REC
41
TAR
58
REYDS
579
TD
3
FPTS/G
14.6
Lockett gets Russell Wilson back and a matchup with the Packers banged up secondary. He could have a monster performance if the Packers put all their efforts into stopping DK Metcalf.
WR Preview
Heath's Projections

2021 NFL jerseys now available

The new NFL season is here! Win or lose, you can shop jerseys, shirts, hats, and much more to support your favorite team. Shop here and show your colors.

We may receive a commission for purchases made through these links.