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USATSI

And just like that, the offseason is essentially over, with teams welcoming rookies and (soon enough) veterans for the start of training camp. In just a few months, the Los Angeles Rams will be unveiling their Super Bowl banner and then taking on the current betting favorite to win it all this season, the Buffalo Bills, to get us rolling into the new year.

As we get ready for the regular season to get into full swing, now is as good of a time as ever to take the temperature on each team in the AFC East and dive into their win totals for the year. Over the offseason, this division has become even more competitive with the Bills signing Von Miller, the Dolphins trading for Tyreek Hill, New England dealing for DeVante Parker, and the Jets loading up at the draft by bringing in three first-rounders. When you account for those additions and the natural development of young quarterbacks like Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones and Zach Wilson, this could be a tougher division than some give it credit for. 

Below, we'll highlight each teams' win total odds, and give our leans for how we see their respective seasons going.

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

Buffalo Bills

Win total projection: 11.5 (Over -140, Under +120)

Given that the Bills are the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl and also have the MVP favorite in quarterback Josh Allen, it's not going to be a surprise to see them with a win total projection that's well into the double-digits. The hardest part of their schedule in 2022 is right out of the gate. 

They face the Rams in Los Angeles for the opener -- which is never a good landing spot for the road team -- and have four of their first six games on the road before an early bye in Week 7. One of those road games is a trip to Kansas City to face the Chiefs. However, after taking on the Packers at home in Week 8 following the bye, it's relatively smooth sailing until they travel to Cincinnati in Week 17. Even if you pencil in losses against the Rams, Chiefs, and Bengals on the road, and a possible loss to Green Bay at home, you're still looking at a 13-4 record, which gets us over this total. 

The pick: Over 11.5 (-140)

How far will Buffalo go this season?

New England Patriots

Win total projection: 8.5 (Over -130, Under +110)

After an under-.500 season in 2020, New England was able to rebound to a 10-7 mark in 2021 and, more importantly, has seemingly found its quarterback of the future in Mac Jones. While that key position is hammered out for the foreseeable future, Bill Belichick does have a lot of questions that need answering before the season gets rolling. 

On the offensive side of the ball, the play-caller has yet to be determined in the aftermath of Josh McDaniels accepting the head-coaching gig with the Raiders. Defensively, the biggest concern is in the secondary. Currently, there is no clear No. 1 option at cornerback following J.C. Jackson departing in free agency. In a conference that features a bunch of highly skilled pass-catchers, those two aspects need to be figured out in some form or another. 

As all that relates to this win total, the Patriots don't have an easy path out of the gate. They have two road games against the Dolphins and Steelers before facing the Ravens in their home opener and heading back on the road to take on the Packers. Depending on how Miami meshes with its new weapons and the Steelers' quarterback situation develops, there's a possibility for a .500 or under-.500 start to the year. Another tough patch resides later in the year starting on Thanksgiving when the Patriots will play four straight prime-time games. Once they finish that gauntlet, they still have a game against the Bengals and a trip to Buffalo on the schedule. 

At this stage of the offseason, there's value in the under. 

The pick: Under 8.5 (+110)

How far will New England go this season?

Miami Dolphins

Win total projection: 8.5 (Over -135, Under +115)

Out of any team in the division, the Dolphins have undergone the biggest facelift as they've barreled into the offseason on a mission to revamp the roster. Offensively, they've added tackle Terron Armstead, wideout Ced Wilson Jr., and running backs Raheem Mostert and Chase Edmonds. They also traded for star receiver Tyreek Hill to form a tremendously fast offense around Tua Tagovailoa. The question is, however, whether or not these moves will help elevate the former first-round quarterback. 

Similar to the Patriots, the first month-plus isn't easy for the Dolphins, who'll be on the road in three of their first five games. They do have an easier patch of games between Week 8 and Week 12 (including a Week 11 bye), but they do have a rough road set down the stretch. Four of their final six games are on the road, which includes trips to San Francisco, Los Angeles (Chargers), Buffalo, and New England. There's also a home matchup against the Packers sprinkled in there as well. 

It'll be tight to approach nine wins, but it's certainly possible especially if Tagovailoa takes a leap. That said, the value is on the Under as we're in the midst of OTAs. 

The pick: Under 8.5 (+115)

How far will Miami go this season?

New York Jets

Win total projection: 5.5 (Over -175, Under +150)

GM Joe Douglas is continuing to build a solid foundation for the Jets. They hit it out of the park at the NFL Draft and could very well surprise some teams by outperforming expectations in 2022 if these young pieces blossom a bit early. That said, they'll need to clean up against other developing teams this season. 

If you pencil in home wins against the Bears (Week 12), Lions (Week 15), and Jaguars (Week 16), you're halfway to the Over. A road game against the Russell Wilson-less Seahawks in Week 17 is a possible win, getting you to four wins, and then it's a conversation that involves some combination of splitting the season series with one or more division opponents and pulling off an upset (Maybe a Week 2 win in Cleveland if Deshaun Watson is suspended?). 

I think this number is low enough that you can have some faith that Gang Green catches some opponents off guard this year.  

The pick: Over 5.5 (-175)

How far will New York (NYJ) go this season?