And just like that, we're in Week 10. The only thing that may be crazier than the fact that we're more than halfway through the 2020 regular season is that the undefeated Steelers nearly have as many wins (eight) as the entire NFC East (nine). Pittsburgh did give themselves a scare last week, however, after nearly being upset at the hands of Garrett Gilbert and the Dallas Cowboys. While they were able to walk away with a win, this game wasn't so kind to those -- including yours truly -- who looked at the Steelers -13.5 as a smash play given Dallas' troubles. Yes, we got the straight-up win correct, but the cover was out the window pretty quickly.
That brings us to our record from last week, which was a mixed bag at 7-7 ATS and 8-6 SU. Strong calls included taking the points with the Saints, Jets, Panthers while laying 2.5 with the Ravens against Indy. Some of our misses were the Cardinals falling to the Dolphins, Washington failing to cover against the Giants, and, of course, those Steelers keeping it close in Dallas.
As we turn the page to Week 10, there are a number of games that catch my eye and what better way to get started than to dive into my five locks of the week? Let's get it.
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Which teams will cover the spread in Week 10? Pete Prisco and R.J. White join host Will Brinson to make their best bets and break down every game on the Pick Six Podcast; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
Locks of the Week
Baltimore at New England
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
The Patriots were able to edge out a win against the Jets on Monday Night Football with a game-winning field goal by Nick Folk. While it was a thrilling last-second victory, the fact that New England was on the brink of a fifth-straight loss against the winless Jets speaks volumes as to where they are in 2020. Because of that, it also shouldn't be a surprise to learn that they are a home dog for the first time since 2014. They now face a Ravens teams that should handle Cam Newton and the Pats rather easily. While Lamar Jackson isn't playing at the MVP clip he was a season ago, his Ravens have been a bit more favorable to bettors in 2020. Baltimore has a better cover percentage and point differential through eight games than they did in 2019. As for Jackson, he's been stellar on the road in his career, owning an 11-3-1 ATS record. The Patriots are also 0-3 ATS in primetime this season.
Projected score: Baltimore 24, New England 10
My pick: Baltimore -7
Tampa Bay at Carolina
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Anyone else getting a little déjà vu? For the second time this season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be facing the Carolina Panthers after a double-digit loss to the New Orleans Saints. it happened in Week 2 after the Bucs were blown out by New Orleans in the opener and is on the docket once again in Week 10. Tom Brady's club looked lost in Week 9, only managing three points as the quarterback chucked a trio of interceptions. While I do expect the offense to be better and the Bucs to rebound with a win, it'll be close enough to where I'll gladly take the points with Carolina. Since Week 3, the Panthers are 5-0 ATS as an underdog and Teddy Bridgewater has been fantastic in this setting as well. In his career, Bridgewater owns a 20-4 ATS record as an underdog, the best by any quarterback since 2000 (min. 10 starts).
Projected score: Tampa Bay 27, Carolina 24
My pick: Carolina +4.5
Minnesota at Chicago
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
This is a tale of two NFC North clubs going in different directions. After starting off the season at 5-1, the Bears have lost three-straight and look more like the middling team that most expected they'd be. As for Minnesota, they are rolling into Week 10 with back-to-back wins after coming out of the gate with a 1-5 record. That's all thanks to Dalvin Cook coming back from injury with his hair on fire. The back has totaled six touchdowns, is averaging over seven yards a carry and has 478 yards from scrimmage over the last two games. While he has helped Minnesota get SU wins, Mike Zimmer's club has been strong staying in games as of late, owning a 5-1 ATS record in their last six contests. With the Bears offense looking lost with Nick Foles under center, I expect the Vikings to grab and early lead on Monday night and hammer Chicago's defense with Cook the rest of the way.
Projected score: Minnesota 17, Chicago 13
My pick: Minnesota -2.5
L.A. Chargers at Miami
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Given that Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa were taken back-to-back in the 2020 NFL Draft, these two quarterbacks are going to be linked throughout their respective careers. For the first time, we'll now be able to see them go head-to-head when the Chargers travel to Miami to face the Dolphins. This is the first time that Tagovailoa will be a favorite, entering this game 2-0 as a starter. The fifth overall pick came out of his shell in Week 9, throwing for 248 yards and two touchdowns in a win against the Cardinals. While Herbert has been phenomenal to begin his Chargers career, L.A. has found ways to lose in dramatic fashion, including last week when the young quarterback threw the game-winning touchdown, but his receiver wasn't able to fully come down with it, and the play was overturned a called an incomplete pass. This game will be extremely close and both quarterbacks will play well, but I side with a Dolphins defense that has been superb over the last few weeks. Miami also rolls into this game covering in four-straight.
Projected score: Miami 27, L.A. Chargers 24
My pick: Miami -2.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
With this spread still under two-touchdowns, I don't know how you can't love the Packers in this spot. Since Matt LaFleur arrived, Green Bay is tied with the Chiefs for the best cover percentage (67%) in the entire NFL. Aaron Rodgers continues to play at an MVP level and once they get a lead, Aaron Jones has proved he's not only healthy but can add to the scoring output. The Jaguars are 0-4-1 ATS over the last three seasons when facing a team that is multiple games above .500 and are averaging 8.4 points per game over that stretch.
Projected score: Green Bay 30, Jacksonville 14
My pick: Green Bay -13
Rest of the Bunch
Indianapolis at Tennessee
Projected score: Indianapolis 21, Tennessee 17
My pick: Indianapolis +2
Houston at Cleveland
Projected score: Cleveland 27, Houston 21
My pick: Cleveland -3
Washington at Detroit
Projected score: Lions 21. Washington 14
My pick: Lions -3
Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants
Projected score: Philadelphia 23, N.Y. Giants 17
My pick: Philadelphia -3.5
Denver at Las Vegas
Projected score: Las Vegas 23, Denver 17
My pick: Las Vegas -5
Buffalo at Arizona
Projected score: Arizona 33, Buffalo 27
My pick: Arizona -2
Seattle at L.A. Rams
Projected score: L.A. Rams 33, Seattle 28
My pick: L.A. Rams -1.5
San Francisco at New Orleans
Projected score: New Orleans 24, San Francisco 13
My pick: New Orleans -10
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Projected score: Pittsburgh 23, Cincinnati 17
My pick: Cincinnati +7
Against the spread in Week 9: 7-7
ATS overall: 69-61-2
Straight up in Week 9: 8-6
SU overall: 86-45-1