We learned plenty this past week in the NFL. Apparently the NFC East heard our criticisms, because the top two teams in that sorry division registered huge upset wins. Colt McCoy and the New York Giants downed the Seattle Seahawks, 17-12, and the Washington Football Team handed the Pittsburgh Steelers their first loss with a 23-17 victory. It was shocking to say the least. Also, Patrick Mahomes, Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson and Tua Tagovailoa were all favored by double digits this past week. Do you know the only quarterback that covered? That's right, the rookie Tagovailo, and he is now 4-1 against the spread as a starter this season. We still have one more game to digest this week as the Dallas Cowboys are set to take on the Baltimore Ravens tonight, but let's go ahead and check out how the lines for Week 14 have moved.
On Friday, we took a look at the lookahead lines for Week 14, which William Hill Sportsbook had available for anyone paying attention beyond the current week. Now that we have officially entered Week 14, we have seen some line movement. Below, we'll take a look at the biggest movers of the week from the lookahead numbers and examine why the line has moved and whether there's value in fading said move. But first, here's the current spread, the line that re-opened on Sunday evening and the lookahead number for every matchup. All NFL odds come courtesy of William Hill.
Week 14 line snapshot
| Matchup | Current | Reopen | Look |
|---|---|---|---|
NE at LAR | LAR -5 | N/A | LAR -6.5 |
DEN at CAR | N/A | CAR -4 | CAR -4 |
AZ at NYG | AZ -2.5 | N/A | AZ -3 |
DAL at CIN | DAL -3.5 | DAL -3.5 | DAL -3 |
MIN at TB | TB -6.5 | N/A | TB -6 |
TEN at JAX | TEN -7.5 | TEN -7.5 | TEN -9.5 |
KC at MIA | KC -7 | KC -7.5 | KC -7.5 |
GB at DET | GB -7.5 | GB -8 | GB -7.5 |
HOU at CHI | PICK | HOU -2.5 | HOU -1.5 |
NYJ at SEA | SEA -13.5 | SEA -13.5 | SEA -14.5 |
IND at LV | IND -2.5 | IND -2.5 | IND -2 |
NO at PHI | NO -7 | NO -7 | NO -6.5 |
ATL at LAC | ATL -2.5 | ATL -2 | LAC -1 |
WAS at SF | SF -3 | SF -4.5 | SF -4 |
PIT at BUF | BUF -2.5 | PIT -1.5 | PIT -2.5 |
BAL at CLE | PICK | N/A | BAL -2.5 |
Steelers at Bills
Current: BUF -2.5 | Reopen: PIT -1.5 | Lookahead: PIT -2.5
Why it moved: Monday night was horrific for the Steelers and fantastic for the Bills. The Steelers lost their first game of the season to the 5-7 Washington Football Team, while the Bills took down the San Francisco 49ers in an impressive fashion, 34-24. Josh Allen had what was probably his best game of the season, as he completed 32 of 40 passes for 375 yards and four touchdowns. Buffalo's stock is rising, while Pittsburgh's is falling.
Fade the move? OK, so the Steelers suffered their first loss of the season. Does that really warrant a five-point swing? I find myself fading this line move and sticking with the Steelers. They haven't played well over the past few weeks, but Mike Tomlin's unit is talented enough to turn it around before the postseason begins.
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Falcons at Chargers
Current: ATL -2.5 | Reopen: ATL -2 | Lookahead: LAC -1
Why it moved: The Falcons fell to the New Orleans Saints for the second time in three weeks this past Sunday, but this line move was more about the Chargers. Despite entering Week 13 with a 3-8 record, the Chargers had been relatively competitive in every game. That changed on Sunday, as they were blown out by the New England Patriots, 45-0. Apart from it being the Chargers' worst loss of the season and worst shutout loss in franchise history, it came against an offense that is the 10th-worst scoring team in the league. In fact, this loss made NFL history, as the 45-0 result was the largest road shutout win in NFL history by a team that entered the game with a losing record. Absolutely nothing went right for the Chargers.
Fade the move? The Falcons are just one game removed from a 37-point win over the Las Vegas Raiders, so I plan on taking Atlanta in this Week 14 matchup. The Chargers appear to be an absolute mess right now.
Titans at Jaguars
Current: TEN -7.5 | Reopen: TEN -7.5 | Lookahead: TEN -9.5
Why it moved: Whoa. Who saw the Cleveland Browns completely dismantling the Titans coming? Baker Mayfield and Co. jumped out to a whopping 38-7 lead at halftime thanks to his four passing touchdowns. It made some franchise history, as Mayfield became the first Browns quarterback since Otto Graham in 1951 to throw four touchdowns in the first half of a game. The Browns eventually won by a score of 41-35, but I was there and I can tell you the game never really felt close.
Fade the move? I do find myself agreeing with this line move, and it's not because of the Titans' performance this past week. The Jaguars have played two quarterbacks over the last five games, and they are 4-1 against the spread. They took the Minnesota Vikings to overtime on Sunday despite being double-digit underdogs with Mike Glennon under center, who is now 2-0 against the spread. I'm not going to feel comfortable taking the Titans unless that line drops another half point or so.
