Week 1 of the 2021 NFL regular season was a wild one, as eight underdogs won straight-up. Many are out of their respective survivor pools after picking Urban Meyer and his Jacksonville Jaguars to beat the Houston Texans. The Pittsburgh Steelers also upset the Buffalo Bills, the Cincinnati Bengals took down the Minnesota Vikings in overtime and then Jameis Winston threw a whopping five touchdowns to destroy Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.
You want to absorb the information that came out of Week 1, but you also don't want to overreact to one game. Let Vegas do the overreacting -- or, rather, set lines based on bettors' overreactions -- and be ready to pounce on a line that is just flat-out wrong.
Below, we will take a look at the biggest movers of the week from the lookahead numbers, examining why the line has moved and whether there's value in fading said move. But first, here's the current spread, the line that re-opened on Sunday evening and the lookahead number for every matchup. All NFL odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
| Matchup | Current | Reopen | Look |
|---|---|---|---|
NYG at WAS | WAS -3 | WAS -4 | WAS -4.5 |
LV at PIT | PIT -6 | PIT -6 | PIT -5.5 |
NE at NYJ | NE -5.5 | NE -4 | NE -3.5 |
LAR at IND | LAR -4 | LAR -4 | LAR -3 |
HOU at CLE | CLE -12.5 | CLE -11.5 | CLE -14 |
CIN at CHI | CHI -3 | CHI -3 | CHI -3.5 |
DEN at JAX | DEN -6 | DEN -6 | DEN -3.5 |
SF at PHI | SF -3.5 | SF -3 | SF -3.5 |
BUF at MIA | BUF -3 | BUF -3.5 | BUF -3.5 |
NO at CAR | NO -3.5 | NO -3 | NO -1.5 |
ATL at TB | TB -12.5 | TB -12.5 | N/A |
MIN at AZ | AZ -4 | AZ -4.5 | AZ -3 |
DAL at LAC | LAC -3 | LAC -3 | N/A |
TEN at SEA | SEA -5.5 | SEA -6 | SEA -3.5 |
KC at BAL | KC -3 | KC -2.5 | KC -2.5 |
DET at GB | GB -10.5 | GB -10.5 | GB -13.5 |
Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars
Current: DEN -6 | Reopen: DEN -6 | Lookahead: DEN -3.5
Why it moved: No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence had an up-and-down debut. He had a couple of nice touchdown passes but also threw a couple of bad interceptions. In all, he completed 28 of 51 passes for 332 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions in the 37-21 loss. Jacksonville's defense was horrific, as Tyrod Taylor's unit racked up 449 yards of total offense. The Texans were assumed to be the worst team in the NFL, but they certainly didn't look like it on Sunday.
The Broncos defeated the New York Giants, 27-13. It wasn't a flashy victory, but Teddy Bridgewater did what he needed to for Denver to secure the victory.
Fade the move? I don't think this line movement is an overreaction. I think the Jaguars are worse than we thought and I think the Broncos acquired some confidence even though they defeated what I consider to be a bad team. I'll take the favorites here to cover, but grab it now in case the line moves again.
Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks
Current: SEA -5.5 | Reopen: SEA -6 | Lookahead: SEA -3.5
Why it moved: The Titans were victims of one of the most surprising upsets of Week 1, as they were whacked by the Arizona Cardinals, 38-13. Kyler Murray got whatever he wanted against Tennessee's defense and scored five total touchdowns, while Chandler Jones recorded five sacks and two forced fumbles. Put simply, the Titans did not win in any facet of the game. Meanwhile, the Seahawks had no problem with the Indianapolis Colts, defeating them 28-16. Russell Wilson threw four touchdowns, two of which were caught by Tyler Lockett. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron looks like he could be Seattle's biggest addition this offseason.
Fade the move? The Seahawks have one of the best downfield passing attacks in the league while the Titans have one of the worst secondaries in the league. The Titans are obviously not the team that we saw this past Sunday, but having to go to Seattle and defend the pass is not ideal. The lean is to the favorite.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Current: GB -10.5 | Reopen: GB: -10.5 | Lookahead: GB: -13.5
Why it moved: The Packers were absolutely throttled by Winston and the New Orleans Saints, losing 38-3. The defense couldn't stop anything and the offense couldn't move the ball. Rodgers threw zero touchdowns and two interceptions, Aaron Jones rushed for just nine yards and the Packers recorded just 229 yards of total offense. It was a completely out-of-character loss for Green Bay. The Lions, on the other hand, lost to the San Francisco 49ers, 41-33, but did score 16 unanswered points in the final two minutes to mount a comeback. The Lions aren't a great team, but they are feisty and you can't sleep on them.
Fade the move? If Green Bay plays like it did on Sunday, the Packers really could lose this game. Still, I don't anticipate that happening. Rodgers returns to Green Bay to play a team the Packers know very well in prime time. I don't think laying 11 points with the Packers is going to be one of my best bets of the week, but that's probably where I'm leaning.
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