If you made a New Year's resolution and you've kept it so far, then I say good for you, because I've already blown mine.
My New Year's resolution for 2017 was to never mention Justin Bieber's name again, and somehow, I managed to blow it within 24 hours. Maybe next year I won't set my sights so high with such a difficult resolution.
Of course, I'm not going to completely blame myself for breaking my resolution so quickly. Twenty percent of the blame goes to Odell Beckham for partying with the Biebs in Miami on Sunday night. As the resident Bieber expert here at CBS Sports, I was asked to put a story together on the hangout session, and BOOM, before I knew it, my resolution was broken because you can't write a Bieber story without using Bieber's name.
Believe me. I tried.
LOOK: Odell Beckham parties with Justin Bieber in South Beach after Giants' win - https://t.co/O3eX0WpNmkhttps://t.co/EpCvSK60Zvpic.twitter.com/Ov2tFQsams— Justin Bieber News (@JBieber_NewsUK) January 2, 2017
I think next year, my resolution will be to stop watching "Rambo" movies every day. They're not even that good.
By the way, if the Giants lose Sunday, then Beckham's South Beach trip is going to rank up there with Tony Romo's impromptu trip (during a bye week) to Mexico with Jessica Simpson in January 2008 as the worst postseason vacation decision of all-time.
Just wait until your team is eliminated, Odell, then you can spend the ENTIRE OFFSEASON hanging with the Biebs in Miami or in Mexico or at Drake's house or in Canada or wherever, but wait until you're eliminated!
Speaking of being eliminated, I hope everyone enjoys the playoffs this year because apparently, they don't even need to be held next year because we already know who's going to win.
Alshon Jeffery: "I guarantee you we are going to win the Super Bowl next year." #Bears— Adam Hoge (@AdamHoge) January 1, 2017
Of course, Alshon Jeffery is about to be a free agent, so I think he just left out the part where he leaves Chicago and signs with the Patriots because that's the only way he's winning a Super Bowl next season.
You know what though? Who cares about next season, let's talk about who's going to win the Super Bowl this season.
I hate trying to predict Wild Card Weekend because it always gets crazy: Up is left, right is down and the Giants always win a game they're not supposed to!
Just to give you an idea of how crazy things can get during the first weekend of the playoffs, consider this: All four road teams won on Wild Card Weekend last season. That's right, every single lower-seeded team advanced. Home teams went 0-4.
I would say that's going to happen this season, but that would mean predicting a Lions win in Seattle and we all know that's not going to happen. Just kidding, Lions fans, you have a chance.
Since we're now in the playoffs, I'm adding one extra wrinkle for this week's picks: No, I'm not going to give away any Applebee's gift cards, but I am going to let you know my season-long record for picking each playoff team.
Here's how it works: I've tabulated all my picks from the season and now you'll know how I did picking each individual team. For instance, I went 12-4 picking Steelers games in 2016, so it's probably safe to assume that my pick for Sunday's game in Pittsburgh will be spot on.
Alright, now that we have that nugget out of the way, let's get to the picks, and don't forget, you can check out the wild-card picks from every CBSSports.com expert by clicking here.
Saturday, Jan. 7
No. 5 Oakland (12-4) at No. 4 Houston (9-7)
TV: 4:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)
After watching Matt McGloin and Connor Cook play against the Broncos on Sunday, I'm starting to think that the Raiders' best option at quarterback for this game might just be letting Derek Carr play with a broken fibula.
I'm not even sure that's physically possible, but if it is, the Raiders should look into it. I know for sure that if Carr was on Houston's roster, Texans coach Bill O'Brien would start him and his broken fibula in a second over Brock Osweiler and Tom Savage.
O'Brien wouldn't even think twice about it, either.
He would line up Carr 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage, and let him throw the ball 72 times. I'm going to stop talking about Carr though, because he's not going to be playing Saturday. As a matter of fact, he won't even be making the trip to Houston, which is probably for the best because I don't think things are going to go well for the Raiders.
That being said, I don't think things are going to go well for the Texans, either.
The quarterback situation for both teams is so ridiculous that neither coach knows for sure who will be starting Saturday. The Texans will likely be going with Osweiler because Savage is in concussion protocol. I'm guessing the Raiders will start Cook because McGloin messed up his shoulder against Denver. McGloin looked horrible when he had two good shoulders against Denver, and I imagine he's only going to be worse now that he's down to one healthy shoulder, so Cook will start by default.
As you can imagine, America is already getting amp'd up for Cook vs. Savage.
Tom Savage vs Connor Cook will be the worst QB matchup in NFL playoff history.— Marty 🌹 (@martymcfly53) January 1, 2017
Connor Cook vs Tom Savage pic.twitter.com/TO2Vl3qys6— Brett (@BrettPats) January 2, 2017
But since that's probably not going to happen due to Savage's concussion, it's a good thing America is even more amp'd up at the thought of Cook vs. Osweiler.
@ESPNNFL@HoustonTexans Connor Cook vs Brock Osweiler, what did we do to deserve this.— arturo (@archurops) January 3, 2017
Connor Cook vs. Brock Osweiler. No, it's not the third quarter of a preseason game, it's a playoff game. #NFLPlayoffs— talkingEndZone (@talkingendzone) January 3, 2017
No matter what happens in the game, you might want to start getting all your gambling advice from this guy, who predicted last January that Connor Cook or Tom Savage would win the Super Bowl this year.
@HeckaMessedUp@BigBoyJameis@white_plasma Tom Savage or Connor Cook gonna win the SB in Houston bet everything— David (@MessiahofMemes) January 18, 2016
He didn't necessarily say they'd be starting, he just said they're going to win. Not even Cook or Savage's own parents would've have predicted that and now, that guy is going to be three games away from seeing that happen because either Cook or Savage is going to win this week and advance to the divisional round.
My pick here is completely based on the fact that I'm not sure the Raiders will be able to muster even 100 yards of offense in this game. It's going to be worse than the time we all sat through Ryan Lindley trying to beat the Panthers in January 2015. Reading the box score from that game is arguably scarier than reading a Stephen King novel. I hope the Raiders don't go full-Lindley, but I feel like it's going to happen.
The pick: Texans 20-16 over Raiders
If the Texans do win this game, I give them a zero percent chance to win in the divisional round, so please enjoy this game everyone in Houston, and remember, if your team loses, you still get to host the Super Bowl in four weeks. Also, if you're wondering how the Raiders will score 16 points on 100 yards of offense, I'm banking on at least two ugly interceptions from Savage or Osweiler, or two each from both.
Record picking Oakland games this season: 11-5
Record picking Houston games this season: 10-6
Predicted Week 11 final score between Texans-Raiders: Oakland 31-20 over Houston
Actual Week 11 final score between Texans-Raiders: Oakland 27-20 over Houston
No. 6 Detroit (9-7) at No. 3 Seattle (10-5-1)
TV: 8:15 p.m. ET (NBC)
Let's start this pick off with a quick thought exercise: Think of all the things you're bad at and then imagine having them all thrown in your face at once. For me, it would be like if I went on a date and the girl asked me to sing in French while writing left-handed. I can't sing, speak French or write left-handed, so that date would be over before it started.
That's basically the disaster scenario the Lions are facing this week. Only, in Detroit's case, the three things they're bad at are worse than me not being able to speak French.
First, this is a wild-card game. The Lions have never won a wild-card game (0-8).
Second, this game is on the road. The Lions have never won a playoff game on the road in the Super Bowl era (0-10).
Third, this game is outdoors. The Lions didn't win a single game playing outside during the 2016 season (0-3).
Fourth, this game is in prime time, and the Lions lost all their prime-time games this season (0-2).
I could go on. Do you want me to go on? OK, I'll go on. As if all of that wasn't bad enough, the Seahawks have never lost a home playoff game under Pete Carroll (5-0). I'm not saying the Lions can't win, but I am saying that if this turns into the biggest blowout of the weekend, I won't be surprised.
On the other hand, I will be surprised if the Seahawks beat the Lions thanks to an illegally batted ball. Again.
NFL VP of Officiating Dean Blandino comments on the Lions-Seahawks ending. http://t.co/BO90lIlUl8— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2015
Sorry for that, Lions fans, I feel like I'm rubbing salt in like five different wounds here, and now I feel bad. Next time I'm in Detroit, tacos on me. Also, just so everyone knows, I don't hate the Lions: I was actually the only CBS Sports writer who picked them to go to the playoffs this season. That might have been an accident though, I'm still not sure. I think I actually watched "The Lion King" the night before making that pick.
The pick: Seahawks 24-13 over Lions
Record picking Detroit games this season: 9-7
Record picking Seattle games this season: 10-6 (the Seahawks' tie goes in my loss column because I didn't pick that game to end in a tie. I knew I should've picked a tie.)
Sunday, Jan. 8
No. 6 Miami (10-6) at No. 3 Pittsburgh (11-5)
TV: 1:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
I don't know what kind of voodoo they're doing in Pittsburgh, but whatever it is, it seems to be working. For the second year in a row, the Steelers get to open the postseason against a backup quarterback.
Last January, the Bengals didn't have Andy Dalton. This season, the Dolphins likely won't have Ryan Tannehill. Although I mentioned that Derek Carr with a broken fibula would be the best quarterback in the Raiders-Texans game, I don't feel the same way here. Starting a gimpy Tannehill over Matt Moore would be like showing up to a gunfight with a box of graham crackers. Sure, graham crackers are tasty, but they won't help you win the gunfight.
Having Tannehill limp around for four quarters probably isn't going to help the Dolphins win this game, especially because the quarterback won't be the most important player on the field for Miami. That honor belongs to Jay Ajayi, who embarrassed the Steelers in Week 6 with 204 yards in a 30-15 Dolphins win that probably should've been 40-10, only it wasn't because the Dolphins offense sometimes plays like they're actual dolphins, and they flutter around and do nothing.
By the way, the irony of that first game is that Tannehill was so bad the first five weeks of the season that Dolphins fans actually wanted Moore to start against the Steelers in Week 6.
Plz start Matt Moore next week against the steelers. Fins have nothing to lose now— Daniel Long (@LongDan17) October 10, 2016
I hope that guy still feels the same way because he's getting Moore vs. the Steelers on Sunday.
The last two times the Dolphins made the playoffs (2001 and 2008) they lost to an AFC North team (the Ravens). I feel like that's a trend that will continue. On the other hand, if the Dolphins do pull off the upset, I fully expect everyone on the roster to pull an Odell and head to South Beach for a night of partying with Bieber, which would be acceptable in this situation because it would be Miami's first playoff win since the 2000 season. I don't even think Bieber was born yet. Actually, let me Google that real quick. OK, he was.
The pick: Steelers 27-20 over Dolphins
Record picking Miami games this season: 10-6
Record picking Pittsburgh games this season: 12-4
Predicted Week 6 final score between Steelers-Dolphins: Pittsburgh 31-20 over Miami
Actual Week 6 final score between Steelers-Dolphins: Miami 30-15 over Pittsburgh
No. 5 N.Y. Giants (11-5) at No. 4 Green Bay (10-6)
TV: 4:40 p.m. ET (Fox)
I'm guessing the reason Odell and the other Giants receivers went down to South Beach on Sunday night is because they were celebrating the fact that everyone in the Packers secondary is injured. The Giants' receivers might be playing against air in this game, and I'm only slightly exaggerating.
Green Bay was already beat up in the secondary, but then things got worse in Week 17 when they lost three more players -- Quinten Rollins, Damarious Randall and Makinton Dorleant -- who all might not be available against the Giants, which is bad news for a Packers defense that ranked 31st against the pass in 2016.
The Packers might have to hold a fan raffle just so they have enough bodies to field an entire secondary.
The Giants are basically the worst possible matchup that the Packers could've asked for in the wild-card round. Green Bay is going to need a perfect game from Aaron Rodgers, which actually doesn't seem like too much to ask for because Rodgers has basically been perfect over the past six weeks.
Aaron Rodgers' stats heading into the playoffs...— Randall Liu (@RLiuNFL) January 2, 2017
In his last 6 games:
15 pass TDs
121.0 passer rating pic.twitter.com/G3dZpZ8LWW
It's going to be tough for Rodgers to be perfect when he's being pressured on nearly every play, which is likely to happen Sunday.
By the time this game is over, Rodgers and Tom Brady are going to have to start a support group for quarterbacks who inexplicably lose every big game they play against Eli Manning. Eli and the Giants have won their past two playoff games at Lambeau Field (2007 and 2011), a total that includes a 37-20 win over a 15-1 Packers team that looked unbeatable during the 2011 season.
I like the Packers, but I'm afraid to pick against the Giants.
The pick: Giants 23-20 over Packers
Record picking N.Y. Giants games this season: 8-8
Record picking Green Bay games this season: 9-7
Predicted Week 4 final score between Giants-Packers: Green Bay 27-23 over N.Y. Giants
Actual Week 4 final score between Giants-Packers: Green Bay 23-16 over N.Y. Giants
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Eagles would score 27 points and beat the Cowboys, then the Eagles went out scored 27 points and beat the Cowboys. To be honest, it was the easiest prediction of 2016. The Cowboys were basically playing their fifth string and somehow still almost won the game. The only reason I'm mentioning this game is because I wanted to make sure we gave proper recognition to Philly fans, who did exactly what you would expect a Philly fan to do when Tony Romo entered the game: They booed him.
Eagles fans booed louder when Romo walked out than they cheered when their own team scored its first touchdown.— Adam (@adamraup) January 1, 2017
Sometimes, I think Eagles fans don't necessarily care about winning as long as they have something to boo.
Worst pick: Last week, two coaching moves blew up in my face, and I'm still not sure which one was worse for me. For one, I picked the Bills over the Jets. However, I made the pick before I knew that Rex Ryan had been fired.
Look, Rex and I both shop at Target, and if I had known he was going to get canned, I would've switched my pick to the Jets because Target shoppers stick together (except at Christmas time, when it turns into the "Hunger Games" at that place).
I mean, look at this guy: On his cell phone while signing his credit card receipt.
I guess #Rex has lots of time to shop these days. #firstname.lastname@example.org/1LHHwpAohl— Mary Friona-Celani (@maryfriona) December 28, 2016
If that's not that the epitome of the perfect Target shopper, I don't know what is.
Also, if this play doesn't epitomize the Bills season, I don't know what does.
This might go down as most embarrassing play of 2017which is saying a lot because we're not even a day into the year https://t.co/3axS2fmMpmpic.twitter.com/par1OzcazW— John Breech (@johnbreech) January 1, 2017
The other pick that blew up in my face was the Raiders-Broncos game. If I had known Gary Kubiak was going to retire, I would've picked the Broncos by 40. Instead, I picked Matt McGloin, and now that I'm saying that out loud, "I picked Matt McGloin," I realize I have no one to blame but myself for missing that pick.
Straight up in Week 17: 11-5
Final regular season record SU: 147-107-2
Against the spread in Week 16: 7-9
Final regular season record ATS: 116-129-11
2015 Wild-Card record
Against the spread: 3-1
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably partying with a Justin Bieber look-alike on a beach nowhere near Miami because he can't afford to hang with the real Justin Bieber or visit the real Miami.