Wake Forest is the bane of my existence.
Last week, I took Indiana (-7.5) as my Lock of the Week at home against Wake Forest. The Hoosiers not only failed to cover the spread, they lost outright. That dropped my record to 2-2 on the season in my Lock of the Week.
Both of those losses are due to Wake Forest, which earlier this season also beat Duke outright when I took the Blue Devils (-5). So I believe it's safe to say that I'm going to be staying as far away as possible from Wake Forest going forward. I'm happy for the Demon Deacons that they're 4-0, but they're messing up my Pick Six life over here, man.
Oh, and Bret Bielema's Razorbacks aren't exactly on the Christmas list either after screwing up repeatedly in the red zone against Texas A&M last week.
Anyway, I still managed to go 3-3 last week, which was a letdown after going 5-1 the week before, but I'm not worried about it. It's time to go out there and dominate again, so let's get to this week's picks.
Games of the Week
No. 5 Clemson (-2) vs. No. 3 Louisville: This is a new situation for Pick Six. Since starting to allow my Twitter followers to compete against me, I've had to post lines for the Games of the Week to my Twitter account on Monday mornings to allow voters the time to vote. While some lines have moved a little during those two days, this was a drastic change. The line in this game opened with Clemson as a two-point favorite, which makes sense. It's the defending ACC champ, played for a national title last season and is at home. None of this mattered to the public.
Louisville dominated my Twitter poll, and it dominated the betting so much at as of publication the line has shifted four full points to Louisville (-2), but we're still picking at Clemson (-2), and that's fine with me. I'm taking Clemson anyway, and honestly, I'd suggest taking them on the moneyline if I were you at this point.
Here are some stats to consider. Since Dabo Swinney took over at Clemson, the Tigers have gone 48-6 at home. One of those six losses was in Swinney's first game against Georgia Tech after replacing Tommy Bowden halfway through the 2008 season. Swinney's Tigers then lost three home games in his first two full home seasons.
Since the start of the 2011 season, Clemson has gone 33-2 at home with the two losses being to South Carolina (which finished 11-2) in 2012 and Florida State (which won the national title) in 2013. That means the Tigers have won 18 straight in Death Valley.
Meanwhile, Louisville has played out of this world through the first month of the season. Lamar Jackson is a dang supernova and seems unstoppable, but what Louisville has not done yet is play a defense near the caliber of Clemson, let alone in a road environment such as this one. Also, for as great an in-game play-caller as Bobby Petrino has been throughout his career, he's still 5-12 against teams ranked in the top 10.
Louisville is really good, but not good enough for me to take it as a road favorite against Clemson. Clemson 31, Louisville 23
Twitter Pick: Louisville +2 (68 percent)
No. 4 Michigan (-10) vs. No. 8 Wisconsin: I did not have the easiest time picking this game, and neither did most of you as this is the closest Twitter poll we've had this season. I flipped back and forth on this one roughly a hundred times during the week as I was preparing for Pick Six, and while I wish I had some kind of clear trend to share to convince you (or myself) that it's the smartest choice to make, I just can't find one.
So in the end, I'm going with Michigan for reasons that aren't quite as tangible, but still logical. Wisconsin went on the road last week and beat Michigan State 30-6, but the truth of the matter is that Wisconsin's offense didn't have an amazing game. It was the defense that truly won the game, and that defense will be making the trip to Ann Arbor, but I have concerns about Wisconsin quarterback Alex Hornibrook going on the road against a defense that has Jabrill Peppers and Jourdan Lewis. While Wisconsin's defense is legit, when I look at all three phases of this game, I see Michigan having an advantage on offense, and a major advantage on special teams. So I'm going with the Wolverines. Michigan 27, Wisconsin 14
Twitter Pick: Wisconsin +10 (50 percent)
Lock of the Week
North Carolina (+11) at No. 12 Florida State: FSU seemed to somewhat get things back in order against South Florida last week, but I'm not fully on board just yet. The reason for this is that Florida State's defense is still a serious problem. The Noles are allowing 6.78 yards per play, tied with Texas State for 121st in the nation. Some of that is clearly due to the opponents it has faced, but North Carolina's offense was great last season and has been better than both Ole Miss and South Florida's so far this year. I see no reason why the Heels won't be able to move the ball with regularity in this game, either. I don't believe in North Carolina's defense enough to call an outright victory, but it's going to hang within those 11 points. Florida State 34, North Carolina 30
Underdog of the Week
Buffalo (+17) at Boston College: BC scored 42 points against Wagner this season. In its three games against FBS opponents, it's managed 40 points, and 26 of those came against Massachusetts. Now, UMass is on a level similar to Buffalo, but Boston College's offense is just so bad that I don't see a scenario in which Buffalo doesn't cover this one with ease. I mean, how can you take Boston College to cover by three scores when you can't even trust it to score three times? Boston College 21, Buffalo 10
Over/Under of the Week
No. 13 Baylor at Iowa State (Under 61.5): There are a few reasons why I feel confident in the under here. The first is that I don't trust Iowa State to score many points in this one, as it has really struggled to do so this season. So even if Baylor's going to put up a ton of points, I still think this one finished under that 61.5. Another factor, which isn't something you expect to happen in Baylor games, is that the Bears have played four games, and none of them have gone over yet. In Iowa State's four games, the over has only been reached once. I see that trend continuing this weekend. Baylor 41, Iowa State 17
Hail Mary Parlay of the Week
Thursday night: Connecticut at No. 6 Houston (Under 50.5)
Saturday morning: Northwestern at Iowa (Under 43)
Saturday evening: Arizona State (+10) at USC
|Last Week||2016 Overall|
|Games of the Week||1-1||5-3|
|Lock of the Week||0-1||2-2|
|Underdog of the Week||1-0||3-1|
|Over/Under of the Week||1-0||2-2|
|Hail Mary Parlay||0-1||1-3|