Through the first 12 weeks of the 2022 NFL schedule, home underdogs of at least four points are 21-7 against the spread (75%). That's on pace to be the highest percentage since the 1970 merger, and three teams on Sunday have a chance to continue the trend. The latest Week 13 NFL odds from Caesars Sportsbook have the Bears as 4.5-point home dogs to the Packers, while seven-point underdogs include the Texans hosting the Browns and the Rams hosting the Packers. Backing home underdogs in general has been a profitable NFL betting strategy this year since they are 41-29-2 ATS (59%). Which NFL bets, NFL office pool picks, and NFL survivor picks should you make? All of the Week 13 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 13 NFL picks now.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 155-110 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Top Week 13 NFL predictions
One of the model's strongest Week 13 NFL picks is that the Giants (+2.5) cover the spread against the Commanders. These are the third and fourth-place teams in the NFC East standings, but both teams would be in the playoffs if they started today and Sunday's matchup is a critical one for both sides. Even with the Commanders coming in off wins in six of their last seven games and the Giants losing three of four, the game sets up well for New York.
Washington still hasn't had a bye week and the Giants have an extended break after playing on Thanksgiving against the Cowboys. Expect Brian Daboll's team to be well-prepared and play with a chip on their shoulders as home underdogs against a team they're ahead of in the standings. That's why the model predicts that the Giants cover in well over 60% of simulations and win outright nearly 60% of the time as well. See which other teams to pick here.
Top Week 13 NFL survivor picks
The model's Week 13 NFL knockout pool picks say to avoid the Chargers, even though they are favorites over the Raiders. A major strength versus a historical weakness will be the key matchup in this game, and that's Josh Jacobs (questionable, calf) going up against the Chargers run defense. Jacobs leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,159), rushing first downs (67) and tackles avoided (76). He's also coming off a game in which he had 303 scrimmage yards, the seventh-most in the Super Bowl era.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles' run defense is filled with superlatives as well, although not the kind it desires. The Chargers are allowing 5.4 yards per carry, which is not only the highest mark of any team this season, but it's also on pace to be the most allowed in NFL history. Add in that LA has only had one game since Week 6 in which it has won the turnover battle and the Chargers are a risky bet with Week 13 NFL survivor pool picks. See which team you should pick here.
Top Week 13 NFL office pool picks
One of the strongest Week 13 NFL football pool picks from the model is that the Ravens beat the Broncos. Baltimore has been one of the most dominant teams in the NFL this season from a statistical standpoint, as the Ravens enter Week 13 second in team DVOA (28.4%) behind only the Bills. Unfortunately, the Ravens have blown several late leads and are sitting at 7-4 with the Bengals breathing down their necks in the AFC North.
However, this week they'll take on one of the biggest underachievers in the NFL this season. Denver enters the weekend at 3-8 and has lost six of seven while failing to score more than 23 points in a game all season despite hiring Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and trading for nine-time Pro Bowler Russell Wilson during the offseason.
Even though the Broncos rank third in points allowed and yards allowed, they rank 19th against the run and are coming off a week in which they were bulldozed by the Panthers to the tune of 185 rushing yards. The Ravens winning outright in well over 70% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.
How to make Week 13 NFL picks
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 13 NFL schedule, and it also says a Super Bowl contender goes down hard. It's also backing a shocking team in its NFL survivor picks. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So what NFL predictions, NFL pool picks, and NFL survivor picks can you make with confidence? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.
Week 13 NFL odds, lines, spreads
Sunday, Dec. 4
Broncos at Ravens (-9.5, 39.5)
Browns at Texans (+8, 46.5)
Commanders at Giants (+2.5, 40.5)
Chiefs at Bengals (+2, 53)
Chargers at Raiders (-2.5, 49.5)
Monday, Dec. 5