The 2021 MLB trade deadline is exactly one week away. Teams don't have much more time to evaluate their roster, determine their trade deadline approach, and pursue upgrades. We've already reached trade deadline crunch time.
Sellers figure to outnumber buyers at this year's deadline. Money is still tight amid the COVID-19 pandemic, plus MLB went back to a 10-team postseason format this year. Last year we had a 16-team format, and with fewer spots available, teams may not be as motivated to add to their roster in anticipation of an August and September run.
Here are a few things to know as we head into 2021 trade deadline:
- The trade deadline is 4 p.m. ET on Friday, July 30. MLB moved it up one day because July 31 is a Saturday with several day games, making logistics difficult (trade candidates would be held out of the lineup, etc.).
- Non-40-man roster players (and only non-40-man roster players) can still be traded after July 30. MLB eliminated August and September waiver trades two years ago, so 40-man roster players are off-limits after the deadline.
- Players must be in the organization at 11:59 p.m. ET on Aug. 31 to be eligible for the postseason roster.
There is no loophole around the Aug. 31 postseason-eligibility deadline. The player does not have to be on the MLB roster that day to be eligible for the postseason, but he must be in the organization. Any player acquired after the trade deadline (via waivers or free agency) must be in the organization by Aug. 31 to be eligible for the postseason. No exceptions.
R.J. Anderson looked at the top 21 trade candidates last week. Now let's take a moment to examine each MLB team and attempt to determine their trade deadline approach. Are they a buyer or seller? Heck, some teams may do both. Here's a look at each club with the trade deadline one week away.
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Sportsline postseason odds: <1.0 percent The Diamondbacks are on pace for over 110 losses and they've already started selling. They sent Stephen Vogt to the Braves in a salary dump trade last week. Other rentals like Asdrúbal Cabrera, Kole Calhoun, Eduardo Escobar, and Joakim Soria figure to be on the move, and there will be interest in non-rental Merrill Kelly. Arizona may also try to unload Nick Ahmed's and David Peralta's (and Madison Bumgarner's) contracts. Ketel Marte is on the injured list with a hamstring issue for the second time this season and he is the club's most valuable trade chip given his immense production and dirt cheap long-term contract. The smart money is on Marte staying put. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 24.7 percent The Braves are hanging around the postseason race and they're already buying, bringing in Joc Pederson and Stephen Vogt in separate trades since the All-Star break. Everything in GM Alex Anthopoulos' track record tells us he's going to add when his team is in the race. That said, Ronald Acuña Jr. just went down with a season-ending knee injury and Ian Anderson is out with a shoulder problem. Should Atlanta crash hard this next week, I could see Anthopoulos pivoting to seller, with Charlie Morton his top trade chip. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: <1.0 percent GM Mike Elias has gutted the roster the last three years and the Orioles don't have too much to sell at this point. The club is unlikely to sell low on ace John Means, who returned from a shoulder issue earlier this week, and the price for All-Star center fielder Cedric Mullins should be exorbitant. Means and Mullins are each under team control through at least 2024. Shockingly few contenders need a first baseman or DH, so the smart money is on feel-good story Trey Mancini, a free agent after next season, staying put. Lefty relievers Paul Fry and Tanner Scott are Baltimore's most obvious trade candidates. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 87.5 percent The Red Sox had a miserable 60-game season a year ago but they've earned the right to be reinforced at the trade deadline this year. Pitching is always a need (that's not intended to be a knock on the Red Sox, every contender could use more pitching) and Boston has a glaring need at first base, where rookie Bobby Dalbec has struggled much of the season. One possible fit: Anthony Rizzo, who was originally drafted by the Red Sox back in the day. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom is not going to gut his improved farm system, so expect him to get creative at the deadline. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 1.6 percent Losing 19 times in 25 games prior to the All-Star break took the mystery out of the trade deadline for the Cubs. They're sellers, and they've already shipped out Joc Pederson. Some rentals (Kris Bryant, Andrew Chafin, Zach Davies, Craig Kimbrel) are more likely to move than others (Javier Báez, Anthony Rizzo), and we shouldn't be surprised if non-rentals like Willson Contreras and Kyle Hendricks pop up in trade rumors. With all due respect to Kimbrel, whose contract includes a $16 million club option for 2022, Bryant is the big name. Maybe the biggest name at the deadline. He's a true impact player and very versatile, so just about any contender can fit him into their lineup. Trading Bryant won't be an easy pill for Jed Hoyer & Co. to swallow, but the writing is on the wall. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 99.6 percent Playing in baseball's worst division certainly helps, though the White Sox deserve a ton of credit for being among the game's best teams despite losing so many key players to long-term injuries. The good news: Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert have begun minor-league rehab assignments and will rejoin the team well in advance of the postseason. The bad news: Nick Madrigal is done for the season, creating a need at second base (though Leury García has played well recently). While not imperative, there is room in the bullpen for another high-end reliever too. Isn't there always? A second baseman is atop the deadline shopping list. The rest is just upgrading on the margins. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 8.7 percent Getting swept by the Brewers last weekend answered a lot of questions about the Reds. They're well back in the NL Central race now and it's tough to count on a wild card spot as a fallback plan given the strength of the NL West. Because of that, I'm putting the Reds in the seller category, though I acknowledge this could be a situation where they buy and sell at the same time. If they buy, a shortstop and bullpen help are obvious needs. If they sell, would they make Luis Castillo and/or Sonny Gray available? Castillo in particular would fetch a significant return, especially since he's turned his season around following a rough first few weeks. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 1.9 percent Cleveland has shown it is willing to trade away core players at the deadline even when the club is in the postseason race. They did it with Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger, though it seems unlikely Cleveland will dangle one of its top starters this year given how much affordable team control Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac have remaining. Cleveland is undoubtedly bombarded with calls about José Ramírez and it'll take a Godfather package to get him given his dirt cheap contract. If Cleveland buys, outfield help will be the top priority. If the team sells, Cesar Hernandez and maybe Bryan Shaw would appeal to contenders. Given the club's willingness to move anyone at any time, I wonder whether they'll capitalize on a trade market short on impact relievers and dangle James Karinchak. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: <1.0 percent In Trevor Story, the Rockies have one of the best and most intriguing trade candidates leading up to the deadline. It is a certainty he will depart as a free agent, and keeping him and taking a dinky draft pick when he signs elsewhere is a bad idea. Story can fetch more in a trade. Rental starter Jon Gray and rental reliever Mychal Givens are obvious trade candidates, and I could see contenders inquiring about closer Daniel Bard as well. Righty Germán Márquez is Colorado's top trade chip. Given his affordable long-term contract, the asking price will be astronomical, and trading him may be a move the Rockies don't want to execute until their front office situation is settled. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: <1.0 percent Very quietly, the Tigers have played over .500 ball since May 1, though they remain well out of the postseason race. They're making progress and taking steps toward contention, but aren't there yet. Detroit's top trade candidate is rental second baseman Jonathan Schoop, who's been rock solid since his disastrous 2018 season. Righty Wily Peralta, who did not pitch in the big leagues at all last season, has done well in a handful of starts and could interest teams as a cheap depth addition. Relievers José Cisnero, Kyle Funkhouser, and Gregory Soto shouldn't be off-limits. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 95.0 percent The Astros are an offensive powerhouse and they have six starters for five spots when healthy (José Urquidy is currently on the injured list with a shoulder problem, however), so those two areas of the roster are set. There's always room for improvement, of course, but neither offense nor the rotation figure to be a top deadline priority for Houston. GM James Click will prioritize bullpen help because getting the ball to closer Ryan Pressly has been a headache all season. They're an obvious suitor for Craig Kimbrel as well as less heralded relievers like Ian Kennedy and Richard Rodríguez. Click and the Astros could very well bring in multiple bullpen arms prior to July 30. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: <1.0 percent Is this the year the Royals trade Whit Merrifield? They wanted the moon for him in previous years, and now he's closing in on his 33rd birthday with waning production, so Kansas City missed their chance to get maximum value. That said, Merrifield is a good, versatile player with an affordable contract and would have no shortage of suitors. Danny Duffy is in the final year of his contract and would interest several clubs. He was recently placed on the injured list, however, and he has full no-trade protection. Once upon a time Duffy said "bury me a Royal" when asked about trade rumors. Maybe he's more open to moving now? I'm certain teams will ask about him, though the injury complicates things. Hanser Alberto and Jarrod Dyson could help some contenders on the bench but they don't have much trade value. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 3.2 percent The Angels are hanging around the postseason race and they can look forward to Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon joining Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh, and David Fletcher in the lineup in a few weeks. The pitching leaves so much to be desired though, and I think the most likely outcome is rookie GM Perry Minasian doing some buying and selling at the deadline. I could see him trading for a starting pitcher with long-term control while also trading away rental closer Raisel Iglesias, for example. If the Angels aren't planning to re-sign free agent-to-be Andrew Heaney, cashing him in as a trade chip would be justifiable as well. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 99.7 percent This game will humble you quick. The Dodgers went from having seven starters for five spots on Opening Day to needing rotation help at the trade deadline. Dustin May had Tommy John surgery, Clayton Kershaw is nursing a forearm issue, and there's no sense in expecting Trevor Bauer to return this year as he awaits MLB's investigation into sexual assault allegations. The Dodgers have the farm system to get anyone and I wouldn't limit them to rentals. They could bring in a pitcher with control beyond 2021. Adding a reliever wouldn't hurt either, though starting pitching is the name of the trade deadline game for the defending World Series champs. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 1.0 percent Prior to getting blown out by the Nationals earlier this week, the Marlins had the best run differential in the NL East despite sitting in last place. They're both a team on the rise and a team that is not one or two pieces away. Half-hearted attempts to extend Starling Marte have gone nowhere, making him an obvious trade candidate. Jesús Aguilar, Jon Berti, Adam Duvall, Miguel Rojas, and various relievers would garner trade interest as well. At the same time, the Marlins are good enough to justify adding long-term pieces at the deadline, and gearing up for 2022. Last deadline they added Marte and subtracted Caleb Smith and Jonathan Villar, for example. They could do something similar this year, with a big outfield bat the likely target. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 91.0 percent Willy Adames has proven to be an ideal fit. He upgraded the shortstop position and also pushed Luis Urías to third base, where he looks very comfortable. We've seen the Brewers buy and sell simultaneously in recent years (they added Jordan Lyles and Drew Pomeranz while subtracting Jesús Aguilar in 2019, for example) and I wouldn't rule out something similar this season, though I think they're firmly in the buyer category. With all due respect to Rowdy Tellez, first base remains a problem area, and a spot to upgrade. It's worth giving the Orioles a call about Trey Mancini. In addition to first base, the Brewers could use more pitching the same way every contender could use more pitching. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: <1.0 percent The Twins have played .500 baseball for close to two months now, but they were so bad earlier this year that they're well out of the postseason race. Nelson Cruz is already on the move and others will soon follow. Minnesota is trying to sign Byron Buxton to a long-term deal and he could be moved should the two sides fail to reach an agreement. That said, his injuries complicate this trade value. He's undeniably great when healthy, which isn't often enough. Non-rentals like José Berríos, Tyler Duffey, Kenta Maeda, and Taylor Rogers will interest contenders and come with significant price tags, Berríos especially. Rentals Michael Pineda, Hansel Robles, and Andrelton Simmons are prime trade fodder leading up to July 30. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 52.0 percent The Mets are in first place, so of course they're going to be a buyer. If there was any lingering doubt, owner Steve Cohen cleared it up earlier this week:
Point: why pay $2 today when you can get the same thing for $1 next week? Counterpoint: games prior to the trade deadline count too, and the sooner the Mets upgrade their roster, the better their chances to win the NL East. New York currently has six starting pitchers on the injured list (Carlos Carrasco, Jacob deGrom, Joey Lucchesi, David Peterson, Noah Syndergaard, Jordan Yamamoto), so starting pitching is a need even with Carrasco on a rehab assignment. The Mets could also use a shortstop-capable infielder to help out while Francisco Lindor is sidelined by an oblique strain. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 18.5 percent All indications are the Yankees will buy at the deadline even though they're well short of expectations this season. An outfielder is a must given how little they've received from left and center fields, and another starting pitcher wouldn't be a bad idea either with Corey Kluber and Luis Severino still weeks away from rejoining the team. The big question: will owner Hal Steinbrenner allow GM Brian Cashman to exceed the $210 million luxury-tax threshold? The Yankees have about $4 million in wiggle room under the threshold and it's tough to see them making impactful additions without spending more money (or gutting the farm system). Cashman & Co. could prioritize players under control beyond 2021 rather than focus on rentals to prop up a disappointing team. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 64.0 percent Once again, the Athletics are right in the thick of the postseason race -- only the Dodgers have been to the postseason more times than the A's since 2012 -- and they have a track record of improving the team at the deadline. Sometimes they go big (Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija), most of the time they go small (Tanner Roark, Jake Diekman, etc.). Oakland could really use another bat with Mitch Moreland ineffective when not hurt, plus the bullpen could use a few more options. The bottom of the roster, their 25th and 26th roster spots, have been a revolving door all season. Time to settle that down. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 23.5 percent If you're expecting a Dave Dombrowski team to sell, I don't know what to tell you. The Phillies are within striking distance in a winnable NL East, and they have clear areas of need in center field, at third base, at the back of the rotation, and in the bullpen. Frankly, the Phillies might have too many needs to address at one deadline, but addressing even two or three of them might be enough to keep the club in the postseason race. Bryce Harper, Aaron Nola, JT Realmuto, and Zack Wheeler are all signed long-term and in their primes. Philadelphia should to do everything it can to win while that is the case. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: <1.0 percent All-Star Adam Frazier will be among the most in-demand players at the trade deadline, and because he will become a free agent after next season, it's hard to see him as part of the next contending Pirates team. Pittsburgh is in position to demand a significant return given Frazier's production and versatility. Rental lefty Tyler Anderson is a stathead favorite and there's a non-zero chance he'll be the best starter traded at the deadline. It would make sense for the Pirates to deal closer Richard Rodríguez too. The last thing a bad team needs is a good closer, and Rodríguez is 31. Cash him in as a trade chip while you can. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 14.9 percent It has been a rough few weeks for the Cardinals, who slipped out of the postseason race and can't really start a rebuild with Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt signed long-term, and Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright still hanging around. I think we'll see them add a little and sell a little at the trade deadline. A starting pitcher with long-term control would be an sensible trade target. Rental reliever Andrew Miller is not the dominant force he was a few years ago, though I'm guessing he will appeal to at least one bullpen-needy contender. He could be shipped out. Wainwright has full no-trade protection. Would he be willing to waive it to join a contender in his age-39 season? If I were a contender looking for a fourth or fifth starter, I'd call St. Louis and ask. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 75.8 percent You didn't expect anything else, did you? The Padres didn't make all those moves in the offseason only to be scared away at the trade deadline because they're in third place. Injuries have created a need in the rotation and there are rumblings San Diego is after Joey Gallo as well, who briefly overlapped with GM A.J. Preller when Preller was in the Texas front office. ESPN's Jeff Passan recently reported the Padres are willing to exceed the $210 million luxury-tax threshold this year, which opens a world of trade possibilities. At the moment, they have about $4 million in wiggle room under the threshold. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 99.6 percent The Giants are in first place and they owe it to themselves and their fans to upgrade the roster and try to win the World Series. At the same time, I don't expect president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi to blow up his long-term plan, and start trading prospects for short-term help. An impact outfield bat would be a welcome addition and Starling Marte is a logical target. San Francisco could also use pitching because every contender can use pitching. I expect Zaidi to be creative at the deadline and perhaps target players with long-term control rather than rentals. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 6.1 percent We are starting to see the makings of the next contending Mariners team (prospects Logan Gilbert, Jarred Kelenic, and Cal Raleigh are up, and Julio Rodríguez isn't too far behind), and Seattle is in the thick of the wild card race. The M's can justify adding pieces and going for it. I mean, when you have the longest active postseason drought in North American pro sports, you should try to make the postseason when you're in it. That's a thing I believe. At the same time, I don't think GM Jerry Dipoto is going to endanger his long-term plan. I expect him to add strategically (another starting pitcher and a second baseman are needs) and also cash in a few trade chips as well. Kendall Graveman is a free agent-to-be and could bring a nice return given how many contenders need bullpen help, for example. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 83.7 percent Few teams are as unpredictable at the trade deadline as the Rays. They're always looking two moves ahead, which often leads to them making buyers trades (i.e. Tommy Pham in 2018) and sellers trades (i.e. Chris Archer and Wilson Ramos also in 2018) simultaneously. This year they've already shipped out shortstop Willy Adames and added Nelson Cruz. Given where they are in the standings, more buying is more likely than more selling, though would it really surprise anyone if, say, the Rays traded away Brandon Lowe while bringing in another bat and a pitcher? The offense needs a boost even with Cruz, and a starting pitcher wouldn't be a bad idea. I'm more curious to see who Tampa subtracts at the deadline (if anyone) than I am to see who they add. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: <1.0 percent The Rangers are a no-doubt seller and they have something for everyone. Joey Gallo is a premier power hitter and under control through next season. Kyle Gibson has been out-of-this-world good since Opening Day (his start earlier this week notwithstanding) and is signed affordably through 2022. Veteran closer Ian Kennedy is a rental and would help most bullpens. Lefty reliever Joely Rodríguez is intriguing as an elite ground ball pitcher. Jordan Lyles always seems to be on the move at the deadline, even when he's having a poor year (like now). Texas could be very active prior to July 30 and all eyes will be on Gallo and Gibson. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 39.8 percent The Blue Jays have the best run differential in the AL East and they've already made a series of smaller moves to improve a leaky bullpen (Adam Cimber and Trevor Richards). Pitching remains the priority. Toronto could use another starter, someone to push Ross Stripling into the swingman role where he excels, and also more bullpen help. They'd be a wonderful fit for Craig Kimbrel. The Blue Jays are an ascendant team with a powerhouse offense, and they will return home to an energized fan base at Rogers Centre next week. A postseason spot is within reach. This is the time to buy. | |
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Sportsline postseason odds: 7.0 percent The NL East is very mediocre and very winnable, and everything in GM Mike Rizzo's track record tells us he'll go for it when his team is in the race. Max Scherzer is an intriguing trade possibility and would have a long list of suitors, but I don't see Rizzo moving him (Scherzer would have to waive his no-trade protection as well). I think it's more likely Scherzer signs an extension than gets traded. Washington has numerous needs (third base, left field, pitching), more than they could possibly address at a single trade deadline, though I expect Rizzo to try. Things would have to go very bad this next week for Rizzo to seriously entertain selling, I believe. | |
