NFL odds, picks for Week 6: Advanced computer model loving Rams, Falcons

The Week 6 NFL odds board includes several games with plenty of line movement. In Washington, the Redskins opened as 2.5-point favorites against the Panthers, but the spread has swung all the way to Carolina -1. Both teams are 2-2 against the spread this season, but bettors have been reacting to Washington's banged-up skill position players, the healthiest of which is Jordan Reed. Other big-time NFL odds movement includes the Bengals vs. Steelers line, which is now Cincinnati -1.5 after the Bengals opened as field goal favorites. Bettors are ignoring Ben Roethlisberger's drastic home-road splits and instead focusing on Pittsburgh's thrashing of the Falcons last Sunday. With NFL odds and lines constantly moving, check out SportsLine's Projection Model before you lock in any NFL picks and predictions for Week 6.

SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

It went a blistering 10-5 straight up in a wild Week 5, including calling the Jets' outright upset of the Broncos. It also recommended the Bills (+6) against the spread and on the money line (+230) against the Titans. The model is now on an impressive 58-40 run on all of its top-rated picks and anyone who has followed it is way, way up.

Now it has simulated every snap 10,000 times and its Week 6 NFL picks are in. 

One of the Week 6 NFL picks the model is all over: the Falcons (-3) cover at home against the division-rival Buccaneers. 

This line has moved a point in favor of the Bucs, and that's created even more value on a Falcons team that the simulations already gave a big edge to. This is a desperation spot for the Falcons after a 1-4 start that has put their playoff hopes in early jeopardy. 

With running back Devonta Freeman (foot) ruled out once again, the model projects Tevin Coleman to pick up the slack and go for 100 yards of total offense. Quarterback Jameis Winston puts up big numbers through the air for Tampa Bay, helping the Over (57.5) hit, but the Falcons cover in almost 60 percent of simulations. 

Another one of the top Week 6 NFL picks from the model: The Rams (-7) continue their march toward a 2019 Super Bowl berth with another win and cover, this time against the Broncos. 

Denver's defense will try to slow a Rams offense that's No. 1 in the league in total yardage (468.4 yards per game) and second in scoring (34.6 points per game). The model, however, is calling for more of the same from L.A. Todd Gurley goes off for over 120 yards from scrimmage, while Jared Goff pushes for 300 more through the air. The Rams cover the spread in almost 55 percent of simulations, while the over (52.5) hits over half the time as well. 

The model also has a strong selection for "Sunday Night Football" between the Patriots and Chiefs, and is calling for a team with Super Bowl aspirations to get absolutely stunned at home by an underdog. 

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 6? And what Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Oakland Raiders (+3, 48)
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns (-1, 47)
Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins (+1, 44.5)
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-2.5, 47.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5, 50)
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-10, 44)
Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins (+6, 41.5)
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-10, 40)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 57.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos (+7, 50.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys (+3, 40)
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (+2.5, 42.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3.5, 59)
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-9.5, 46.5)

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