We saw some big shakeups in the NFL playoff picture this past week. The Tennessee Titans kept the door open on the AFC South with their loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Miami Dolphins fell to 8-5 after being defeated by Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers and the Detroit Lions are on fire. It's still a long-shot for Dan Campbell and Co. to earn a playoff berth, but the Lions have quickly become America's team.
How did this past week affect Vegas' view on who the eventual champion will be? Super Bowl odds are fluid, so let's take a look at the current odds compared to where they were just a week ago. Below, we will list the Super Bowl odds for the top 20 NFL teams, and then break down some of the noteworthy changes.
All NFL odds come via Caesars Sportsbook.
| Team | Current Super Bowl Odds | Last Week's Super Bowl Odds |
|---|---|---|
+350 | +380 | |
+450 | +500 | |
+475 | +450 | |
+800 | +700 | |
+800 | +900 | |
+1000 | +1200 | |
+2000 | +2200 | |
+2200 | +1700 | |
Miami Dolphins | +2500 | +1800 |
+2800 | +1800 | |
Los Angeles Chargers | +4500 | +7000 |
Tennessee Titans | +5000 | +4000 |
+7000 | +5000 | |
+8000 | +10000 | |
+10000 | +15000 | |
Detroit Lions | +10000 | +20000 |
+10000 | +10000 | |
+15000 | +10000 | |
Jacksonville Jaguars | +20000 | (Outside of top 20) |
+25000 | (Outside of top 20) | |
+25000 | +12500 | |
+25000 | +20000 |
Eagles pass Chiefs
Philly and Kansas City have been in the top three of Super Bowl favorites virtually all year, but now, the Eagles have shorter odds than the Chiefs. Just two weeks ago, the Chiefs were the odds-on favorite to win Super Bowl LVI. Now, they are longer shots than two teams.
Kansas City lost to Cincinnati a couple weeks ago, and then beat Denver on Sunday by just six points despite leading by a whopping 27 points in the second quarter. Patrick Mahomes threw three touchdowns and three interceptions, while Russell Wilson had one of his best performances of the season. The Eagles, on the other hand, blew out the Giants, 48-22, and became the first NFL team to clinch a playoff berth this season, boasting a 12-1 record. Additionally, Jalen Hurts passed Mahomes as the MVP favorite.
Dolphins diving
Mike McDaniel's squad went from one of the NFL's most intriguing teams to one of the most disappointing teams over the past two weeks. Miami lost to Brock Purdy and the 49ers two weeks ago, and then fell to the Chargers on Sunday night. It has led to the Dolphins' Super Bowl odds to fall from +1400 to +1800, and then +1800 to +2500. Tua Tagovailoa's struggles are a big reason for this drop. In fact, he went into halftime of Sunday's matchup against the Chargers having completed just 3 of 15 passing attempts. He has not looked like the quarterback that was setting the league on fire earlier this season over the past few weeks, and the Dolphins defense has struggled as well. The Chargers racked up 432 yards of total offense on Sunday, while Herbert threw for 367 yards and a touchdown.
The Dolphins looked like a fun team to take a Super Bowl flier on a couple weeks ago. At this point, I'm glad I didn't take it.
Chargers get juiced
Speaking of the Chargers, it appears they are going to be a playoff team. They may be currently on the outside looking in, but are -165 to make the postseason over at Caesars -- and that's because of their remaining schedule. They get the Titans this week, the Indianapolis Colts next week, the Los Angeles Rams in Week 17 and then the Denver Broncos in the regular-season finale. It's entirely possible L.A. runs the table and goes into the postseason at 11-6. Maybe 10-7 is more reasonable, but either way, it's looking good for the Chargers when it comes to a playoff berth.
However, when it comes to their status as Super Bowl contenders, I don't see it. This defense is bottom five in defending the run, and allows the fifth-most points per game (25.1 ppg). Injuries hurt this squad, but maybe next year.
Tom Brady done?
With their blowout loss to the 49ers, the Buccaneers fell from +1800 to +2800. While they are still very much favored to make the playoffs (-280), it's not a given. With this loss, Brady has now tied the most losses he's suffered in a single season with seven. There are many reasons why the Buccaneers look terrible. Brady certainly doesn't look like one of the top signal-callers in the NFL, Mike Evans hasn't looked like a No. 1 wideout in weeks and then the defense hasn't been too great. I mean, the 49ers racked up 404 yards of total offense with a third-string quarterback, and 209 yards on the ground.
Long-shot movement
It's not likely one of these teams win Super Bowl LVII, but some long-shots moved up the board or inside the top 20. The Commanders went from +10000 to +8000, the Patriots moved from +15000 to +10000, the Jaguars moved inside the top 20 -- as did the Panthers. Both the Jaguars and Panthers could win their respective divisions. Don't count them out just yet.
