The Kansas City Chiefs opened as the largest favorites of the week at -15 against the Raiders, but the latest Week 13 NFL odds show the Chiefs at -14. One of the largest NFL spreads of the season dropped after star running back Kareem Hunt was released on Friday. Still, bettors still believe in quarterback Patrick Mahomes and backup running back Spencer Ware, keeping the line at two touchdowns. And with wide receiver Stefon Diggs (knee) expected to play, the Vikings are now just five-point underdogs against the Patriots after that line opened at seven. With NFL odds and lines on the move and plenty of injury updates to keep tabs on, be sure to check out the top Week 13 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine's proven computer model.
SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 straight-up last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 13 on a blistering 13-2 run. For the season, it is now 27-11 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 75-45. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model went 12-3 last week and is 118-56 for the season, ranking in the top five on NFLPickWatch.com.
Now it has examined the latest NFL odds and spreads, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its Week 13 NFL picks are in.
One of the top Week 13 NFL picks the model loves: the Rams (-10) cover on the road against the Lions.
The Lions have now lost four of their last five games, with three of those defeats coming by double-digits. At 4-7 and last in the NFC North, they find themselves on the brink of playoff elimination and now face one of the league's most dynamic offenses.
According to the model, the Rams get almost 350 yards through the air from quarterback Jared Goff, while running back Todd Gurley accounts for 150 yards of total offense as Los Angeles covers in almost 55 percent of simulations. The Over (55), meanwhile, hits 60 percent of the time.
Another one of the Week 13 NFL predictions from the model: the Chiefs (-14) cover on the road at Oakland, even with Hunt off the team.
This is a complete mismatch that features one of the NFL's most explosive offenses taking on a a team ranked 26th in total defense and 30th in scoring defense. With one of the league's worst pass rushes leaving him plenty of time, Mahomes throws for over 350 yards, according to the model, while Hunt's replacement, Spencer Ware, goes for over 100 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown.
The model says the Chiefs cover in 55 percent of simulations and predicts Kansas City to blow out Oakland, 40-20. The Over (54.5) also provides value because that hits in over half of simulations.
The model has has a strong pick for the AFC battle between the Steelers and Chargers, and is also calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard this week in a game that will shake up the playoff picture forever.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 13? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4, 47)
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3, 53.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 48.5)
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-5.5, 47.5)
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 40)
Chicago Bears at New York Giants (+4, 44)
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5, 45)
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (+10, 54)
Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-13.5, 42.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+14, 54.5)
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-9.5, 40.5)
Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots (-5, 49.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-10, 45.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 52)
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 45)