NFL odds, picks for Week 5: Advanced computer model loving Jets and Chargers

One look at the Week 5 NFL odds and you'll see that Vegas is expecting a day of extremely tight games. Six games on the Week 5 NFL schedule have NFL spreads of a field goal or less, and only the Rams (-7.5) are favored by more than a touchdown. With every game expected to be within one score, making Week 5 NFL picks and predictions could be tougher than ever. Add in the fact that Over-Unders like Falcons vs. Steelers (57.5) are approaching record highs and there are plenty of intriguing options on the NFL odds board this week. Before you lock in your against the spread, Over-Under, or money line NFL picks for Week 5, check out what SportsLine's advanced computer is predicting for every single game.

SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

It went a blistering 11-4 straight up in a wild Week 4 and nailed three of its four top-rated spread picks, including Kansas City (-3.5) over Denver on Monday Night Football. It's now 10-3 on top-rated picks this season, extending its run to 58-37. 

Now it has simulated every snap 10,000 times and its Week 5 NFL picks are in. 

One of the Week 5 NFL picks the model is all over: the Chargers cover as 5-point home favorites over the Raiders. 

The Raiders notched their first win since head coach Jon Gruden's return last week compliments of late mistakes by the Browns. However, the model doesn't expect that momentum to carry over. Instead, look for the 2-2 Chargers to get back over .500 with a convincing win.

Fueled by a projection of well over 300 yards and two touchdowns for Philip Rivers, SportsLine's model expects the Chargers to cover in almost 60 percent of simulations. Its projected final score of 30-22 also means there's value on the Under (52.5), so you can lock that pick in as well. The model is also calling for Chargers running back Melvin Gordon to shred the Raiders' run defense, accounting for almost 130 yards from scrimmage and at least one end zone visit.

Another Week 5 NFL pick the model likes: the Jets (+1) pull off the outright upset against the Broncos at MetLife Stadium. 

It was a triumphant beginning to Sam Darold's NFL career when he blasted the Lions 48-17 in Week 1, but the Jets have been handed three straight losses since and haven't scored more than 17 points in any of those games. 

But the model likes the Jets' chances of getting back on track against a Denver defense that has uncharacteristically struggled this season, entering Week 5 in the bottom half of the league in most major statistical categories. Add to that a nearly 2,000-mile plane ride to New York on a short week and you have all the makings of an upset. The Jets win and the cover in over half of simulations, and there's also value on the Over (42.5) because the model is calling for 43 points to be scored.

The model also has a strong selection for the rematch of last season's NFC Championship Game between the Eagles and Vikings, and is calling for a team with Super Bowl aspirations to get a huge scare at home. 

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 5? And what Super Bowl contender gets a huge scare? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 48)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 49)
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-6.5, 43.5)
Denver Broncos at New York Jets (+1, 42.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 57.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+3, 45.5)
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (+5.5, 40)
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-1, 51)
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-5, 52.5)
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 40.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 47)
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (+7.5, 50)
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-3.5, 45.5)
Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-6, 52.5)

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