NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, bets, predictions for Week 5, 2021: Model loving Patriots, Packers

Arizona can strengthen its grip on the NFC West standings and remain undefeated when it hosts San Francisco on Sunday as part of the Week 5 NFL schedule. The Cardinals are coming off their best win of the young season, beating the Rams by 17 points on the road last week. They are five-point favorites in the latest Week 5 NFL odds at Caesars Sportsbook. The 49ers have lost their last two games and will now start rookie quarterback Trey Lance. Can you trust the Niners to cover one of the larger NFL spreads of the week?

Is the game one of the Week 5 NFL Vegas odds you should bet on? Can the 49ers pull off a much-needed upset? All of the NFL lines are listed below, and before making any Week 5 NFL picks on these games or others, be sure to see the Week 5 NFL predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 5 of the 2021 season on an incredible 124-82 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 5 NFL odds from Caesars and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 5 NFL predictions

One of the top Week 5 NFL predictions the model recommends: The Patriots (-8) cover the spread against the Texans in almost 60 percent of simulations. Both teams are coming off losses but looked drastically different while getting them. New England hung with the Super Bowl champs until the very end, while Houston suffered its most lopsided defeat in franchise history, falling 40-0 to Buffalo.

The Texans have nothing to hang their hats on entering Week 5 and rank among the bottom five in points scored, yards gained, points allowed and yards allowed. Rookie quarterback Davis Mills threw four interceptions last week and now faces a Patriots defense that has historically dominated rookie quarterbacks. That includes the Jets' Zach Wilson, who threw four picks and was sacked four times versus New England in Week 2.

Another one of its Week 5 NFL predictions: The Packers (-3) cover on the road against the Bengals in a matchup of 3-1 teams. The Packers opened the season with a disastrous loss at New Orleans, but they have been fantastic in their three games since. They have notched a pair of double-digit wins over Detroit and Pittsburgh while adding a narrow road win at San Francisco in Week 3. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw two touchdowns to Randall Cobb and rushed for another in the 27-17 win against the Steelers last week.

Cincinnati is off to a 3-1 start but has played one of the softest schedules in the league. The Bengals have been forced to erase deficits of at least one touchdown in two of their three wins, but that will be a different task against Rodgers.

SportsLine's model expects Rodgers to throw for more than 250 yards and two touchdowns, connecting with wide receiver Davante Adams at least eight times. Cincinnati does not have the offense to keep pace, which is why Green Bay has all the value for your NFL bets. The over (50.5) is also hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations.

How to make Week 5 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 5 NFL schedule, and it's calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,900 since its inception, and find out.