I don't usually start with Spanish here but I thought I should this week since that's the language I was yelling at my TV during the fourth quarter of the Seahawks-Patriots game on Sunday. If you were doing that too, it's cool, my doctor -- who I don't actually think has a medical license -- claims it's normal to yell in a different language at your TV during tense situations, and the end of the Sunday night game was definitely a tense situation.
WHY DID BILL BELICHICK NOT CALL FOUR RUNS IN A ROW?
I know my opinion is right because this random guy on the internet agrees with me.
How in HELL did Belichick run Blount only once there? It is like Carroll in XLIX in reverse— Steve Svekis (@Pac_Dozen) November 14, 2016
If Belichick learned one thing over the past two years, you'd think it would be that he should hand the ball off at the 1-yard line. It's almost like he didn't even watch the end of Super Bowl XLIX or pay attention to the 19 straight months of "give Marshawn the ball" jokes that everyone in America made after Pete Carroll decided to have the Seahawks throw the ball from the 1-yard line.
My theory is that Belichick outcoached himself on Sunday night: He knew that everyone knew that he knew that running the ball would be the best option from the 1, so he didn't call a run play on third or fourth down. Belichick was clearly trying to fool Carroll with the old "I know he knows I know what I'm going to call, so I'm not going to call it."
That paragraph is only about half as confusing as what I think was actually going on in Belichick's head during the Patriots' four goal-line plays, which is how you outcoach yourself.
I outcoach myself in fantasy football all the time, so I know exactly how Belichick felt on Sunday night. For instance, I talked myself into benching Ryan Matthews in Week 10 (27 points) and now I want to quit fantasy football forever.
Anyway, I would say that the Patriots suffered the most painful loss of Week 10, but then I re-watched the fourth quarter of the Saints game and the Panthers game, and let me just say that if you lose a game like those two teams did, you should get two weeks off to emotionally recover. Instead, both teams get zero days off because they play each other on Thursday.
So who am I going to pick in that game?
Let's get to the picks and find out.
Actually, before we get to the picks, here's your weekly reminder that you can check out the picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here.
The reason you should click over and check out the other experts this week is because CBSSports.com NFL writer Will Brinson needs some moral support right now. After picking the Titans to upset the Packers on Sunday, Titans fans started complaining to him, because apparently, Titans fans don't actually want people picking their team. I think it's reverse psychology, or maybe they're outcoaching themselves.
This Titans fan is mad at me for my Titans-Packers prediction that the Titans would win. https://t.co/L9VFjk602Y— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) November 13, 2016
Brinson has some nerve, though, just look at that pick. I bet he picks the Titans again this week and rubs it in to all the Titans fans who don't want writers picking their team.
Alright, let's get to this week's picks before you decide to ditch me to go check out Biden/Obama memes on Facebook.
NFL Week 11 Picks
Arizona (4-4-1) at Minnesota (5-4), 1 p.m. ET (Fox): We're 11 weeks into the season and Fox still doesn't have a Sam Bradford graphic. During Minnesota's game against Washington on Sunday, Fox decided to photoshop Bradford's face on to a picture of Matt Cassel because, well, I have no explanation.
This was the Vikings reaction.
To be honest, I think Fox is doing this because they know something we don't know and that something is that the Vikings are going nowhere this season. You can only lose so many players to injury before everything starts to unravel. The Vikings are falling apart so fast right now that Fox doesn't even feel like taking 90 seconds to put an actual picture of Bradford on their Bradford graphics because that would be a waste of 90 seconds.
As for the game, these two defenses basically cancel each other out, so the question here is: Which offense do you trust more? I'll go with the one that's not ranked dead last in the NFL. That's right, the Vikings' offense is ranked behind the Rams, 49ers and even the Browns in terms of yards per game. Minnesota might not score at all on Sunday, or ever again.
The pick: Cardinals 19-16 over Vikings
Green Bay (4-5) at Washington (5-3-1), 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC): After watching the Packers play for the past five weeks, I've noticed a few troubling things about them: They can't win on the road, they can't win at home, they can't beat a good defense , they can't beat a bad defense, everyone can score on them and they can't even beat the Titans. They also have questionable coaching, receivers who can't get open, and zero healthy running backs.
I tried to make a list of things the Packers do well, but I couldn't because they don't really do anything well. Actually, there is one thing: They win in prime time.
Over the past six weeks, Green Bay is 2-0 at night and 0-4 during the day. They're like the reverse Andy Daltons. Not the Redskins though, they're basically the NFC's version of the Bengals when it comes to playing in prime-time games. Since 2013, Washington is just 2-10 at night.
Anyway, I just re-read that list I made about all the things the Packers are horrible at right now, and for some reason, I'm going to ignore it. They have to fix things eventually, right? RIGHT?
The pick: Packers 27-24 over Redskins
Texans (6-3) vs. Raiders (7-2) in Mexico City, 8:30 p.m. ET, Monday (ESPN): Since this game's in Mexico, I was going to write this entire pick in Spanish, but I had to throw that idea out the wind0w because I don't know any Spanish except for "como estas". You know who does know Spanish, though? People in Mexico, and they seem pretty excited about this game.
I have no idea what the tweet below says, but I think it's about football because the tweet's from a verified Twitter account and both teams' helmets are in the picture.
As for the actual game, if you've watched the Raiders play at all this year, then you've probably noticed that their biggest weakness is stopping the pass. Fortunately for them though, Brock Osweiler's biggest weakness is throwing passes.
Hold on, let's do a fun fact real quick.
Fun fact: Mexico City is at an elevation of roughly 7,500 feet, so if every player on the sideline is using an oxygen tank at all times, you'll know why (Denver's at an elevation of 5,280 feet).
OK, back to the pick.
To make international games more intriguing, the NFL should consider stealing the idea from the guy below.
@johnbreech my understanding is that the loser will have their passports revoked and be forced to stay in Mexico City. Please confirm.— Jake Wilson (@geoJakeW) February 5, 2016
Half the country would watch the game on Monday if they knew the losers were going to get their passports revoked. Of course, the downside of having your passport revoked is that you're going to be be stuck in Mexico forever because there's probably not going to be anyway around that giant wall that's being built.
The Pick: Raiders 31-20 over Texans
Fun Fact II: I once walked to Mexico and there was actually a wall.
That Tijuana bender was last year and I'm still feeling it.
The 'I don't want the Dolphins to curse me so I'm picking this game' pick
Pittsburgh (4-5) at Cleveland (0-10), 1 p.m. ET (CBS): The Dolphins aren't playing in this game but they might as well be because they've ruined the year for both teams. As a matter of fact, Miami's ruining everyone's season and they don't even know it. In what has to be the most inexplicable curse in NFL history, every team the Dolphins have beaten this season has gone on to lose every game they've played since losing to Miami. (Shout out to the random guy on Reddit who figured this out).
Let me explain.
In Week 3, the Dolphins beat the Browns. The Browns are 0-7 since.
In Week 6, the Dolphins beat the Steelers. The Steelers are 0-3 since.
In Week 7, the Dolphins beat the Bills. The Bills are 0-2 since.
After a bye in Week 8, the Dolphins beat the Jets in Week 9. The Jets are 0-1 since.
In Week 10, the Dolphins beat the Chargers, so you can just go ahead and write off the rest of your season San Diego. The Dolphins are probably why you lost your stadium vote, too.
That's five wins for the Dolphins and a combined record of 0-13 for the teams in the weeks after they play Miami.
There are no words for what's happening.
When losing to the Dolphins curses you to lose all your games for the rest of the season, you know that the season has gone completely bonkers, and that's where we are with the NFL in 2016.
Anyway, that's the only reason I'm writing about the Browns-Steelers game right now. I felt that every other team in the NFL needed to know that the Dolphins are trying to sabotage their season.
Of course, the curse could be good luck for some people: The Dolphins are playing the Rams this week and I'm pretty sure that after Los Angeles loses and gets cursed to an 0-6 finish, Jeff Fisher will somehow turn that into a five-year extension.
As for the Browns-Steelers game, the only way the Dolphins curse keeps going this week is if these two teams tie, and because of that, I'm 50 percent sure a tie is going to happen, but I'm not going to pick it.
The pick: Steelers 30-17 over Browns
The pick: Dolphins 20-16 over Rams
The 'Who can handle heartbreak better' pick
New Orleans (4-5) at Carolina (3-6), 5:25 p.m. ET, Thursday (NBC): If these two teams decided to cancel Thursday's game and just hug each other for four quarters, that would be completely understandable after what both teams went through on Sunday. If you didn't watch any football, I'll give you a brief rehash of what happened.
The Saints looked like they were going to beat the Broncos when they scored a touchdown with 1:22 left in the game, but then they lost because Denver blocked the extra point and returned it for a defensive two-point conversion. It probably took all the alcohol in the French Quarter to help Saints fans drink this loss away.
On the Panthers' end, it looked like they were going to be beat the Chiefs, but then Carolina blew a 17-3 lead over the final 12 minutes of the game thanks in large part to an ugly Cam Newton pick-six.
As for the pick, I'm not sure anyone can slow down the Saints offense right now. If the Broncos didn't get that crazy return against the Saints, that means New Orleans would've knocked off the NFL's No. 5 defense (Denver) and No. 9 defense (Seattle) in a span of three weeks. Basically, I think they can light up any defense in the NFL right now.
Even if you hate "Thursday Night Football," you might want to tune-in for this game. The last two times these two teams have met, the final score was 41-38, with each team winning once.
The Saints cheerleaders also nailed the mannequin challenge this week, and that has to count for something.
The pick: Saints 41-38 over Panthers
NFL Week 11 picks: All the rest
Titans 34-31 over Colts
Bengals 23-20 over Bills
Chiefs 24-17 over Buccaneers
Patriots 34-20 over 49ers
Seahawks 27-23 over Eagles
Bye week: Broncos, Chargers, Falcons, Jets
Best pick: My picks were so bad last week that my best pick was a game I didn't even get right. Honestly, I should retire the "best pick" section after the debacle that was Week 10, but I'm not going to do that because that would mean adding another section, which I'm too lazy to do right now.
Anyway, last week I literally predicted that the Seahawks-Patriots game would come down to New England's final possession and that the Patriots would win the game on a short touchdown run. That exact scenario was about to happen until Belichick turned into Jeff Fisher and started calling plays that made no sense.
Winning the game could've been so easy: Give the ball to LeGarrette Blount four times. LeGarrette scores a touchdown. I get to feel good about my pick. It's that simple, Bill.
Instead, me and every Patriots fan across America had a meltdown: They had a meltdown because their team lost and I had a meltdown because my prediction went down in flames.
Why not just give the ball to Blount, did we not learn anything from the Super Bowl two years ago.. Jesus— Levi Rider® (@Levi_Rider) November 14, 2016
The only good news that came out of my meltdown is that I have trouble sleeping after I meltdown, which means I got to stay up all night on Sunday and watch Hallmark movies like "Holiday in Handcuffs." If you haven't seen it, I highly suggest watching it, it's the easily best handcuff-related Christmas movie out there, plus, it teaches you important lessons.
Holiday in Handcuffs has taught me a very important lesson; kidnap someone and they'll fALL IN LOVE WITH YOU— Sarah Lindquist (@sarah_lind06) November 14, 2016
The other lesson the movie teaches you is ALWAYS HAND THE BALL OFF AT THE 1. It's a subtle lesson, but it's there.
Worst pick: I don't even know where to start here. I went 3-11 with my picks in Week 10, so they were all my worst pick. Actually, you know what, I do know where to start: I picked a winless team (the Browns) to win on the road in a prime-time game. As soon as I picked the Browns to beat the Ravens, I should've taken that as a sign that my picks were going to turn into a total disaster in Week 10. Honestly, I'm mildly surprised I wasn't asked to quit after making that pick.
I also picked Daytime Dalton to win at night, which I only did because I thought the picture below was a sign that the Bengals would never lose again in prime time.
What I didn't realize is that you don't need "signs" when picking AFC North games. The division is terrible, so all you have to do is pick the AFC North team to lose in every game they play in. Remember all those jokes everyone used to make about how bad the AFC South was, well, you can now make those same jokes about the AFC North. Since the start of Week 5, the four teams in that division are a combined 1-13-1 in non-divisional games.
The AFC North is so bad that the Browns can still win the division and make the playoffs. I'm not even kidding. CBS Sports NFL writer Ryan Wilson did the math, and it checks out. Note: He's better at math than I am at picking games, so you can trust his numbers.
Anyway, 3-11 was bad, but I'm going to get over it because last week could've been worse: Gary Johnson could've won the election.
ZING! That will be my last election joke of 2016.
Since my contract stipulates that I can't end with a political joke, here's something way better: A picture from the Jaguars pool.
Having a pool to sit in probably almost makes it worth watching Blake Bortles throw a pick-six every week.
Straight up in Week 10: 3-11
SU overall: 80-65-2
Against the spread in Week 10: 4-10
ATS overall: 65-75-7
Exact score predictions: 1