We came back to earth in Week 6. While #DajaniDimes went 3-2 on his top five picks, there weren't many other wins to be found on our ATS sheet. The bad week was simply the result of a strategic decision that did not pan out.
In Week 5, sportsbooks took an absolute beating. Just a handful of underdogs pulled off ML upsets. Golden Nugget sportsbook director Tony Miller even tweeted: "This is just one of those days when I just wanna go home, lock myself in my room with a full bottle of Knob Creek." There was no way favorites were going to roll like they did two weeks in a row, right? They didn't roll, but they did win the day. Favorites went 8-6 ATS according to the lines I went off of, and I just happened to lean towards the wrong underdogs.
On to the next one. We are still No. 3 at CBS Sports. Let's go ahead and jump in. Peep the season stats below.
Top five picks record: 18-12
Overall ATS record: 49-44-1
Straight up record: 60-34
2020 ATS record: 125-120-9 (2 official picks missed due to COVID rescheduling)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Jets have arguably the worst offense in the NFL. They rank near the bottom of the league in several offensive categories and now have to face a good defense on the road. These two teams faced off in Week 2, as the Patriots blew out the Jets by 19 points while Zach Wilson threw four interceptions. I would say this game being in Foxboro should help the Patriots, but they are incredibly 0-4 at home this season. They most recently fell to the Dallas Cowboys in overtime, but Mac Jones did throw two touchdowns and recorded a 118.9 QBR -- the highest of his young career.
With a win over the Patriots on Sunday, the Jets would be ahead of the Pats in the AFC East for the first time since Week 1 of 2014, when the Jets were 1-0 and the Patriots were 0-1. I don't see that coming to fruition. I am still trying to figure out who this Patriots team is, but I know that the Jets are bad and that Bill Belichick knows how to game-plan for rookie quarterbacks. Rookie starting quarterback are 6-27 against the Patriots since Belichick took over in 2000, and 0-16 against them in Foxboro during that span.
The pick: Patriots -7
Projected score: Patriots 26-17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Ravens are 15-4 at home since the start of the 2019 season. Only the Green Bay Packers have a better home record during that span (16-2). I think the Bengals are an improved team that's worth watching, but I also think this Ravens team is one of the best in the NFL. Not only is Lamar Jackson a legitimate MVP candidate, but the defense has been better than anticipated. They are coming off of their best performance of the season, as they allowed just 208 yards and six points against the Los Angeles Chargers. On offense, it almost doesn't even matter who is running the ball for the Ravens. Devonta Freeman, Latavius Murray and Le'Veon Bell are scoring touchdowns for this team.
I just think the Ravens are the better team. They defeated the Bengals, 27-3, in Joe Burrow's lone start against this division rival. This should be a closer game, but I'll take Baltimore to cover.
The pick: Ravens -6.5
Projected score: Ravens 30-23
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
This week, Matthew Stafford hosts his former club -- the only winless team in the NFL. The Lions are 0-6 for the first time since going 0-16 in 2008, and things are getting worse. Former Rams-now-Lions quarterback Jared Goff led an offense which scored just 11 points last week despite the fact that he attempted 42 passes. Head coach Dan Campbell even said that he is going to have to "step up more than he has."
Laying 15 points sounds unwise, but the Rams have won two of their five victories by at least 20 points -- including last week's 38-11 win over the New York Giants. I think the Lions will be the worst team the Rams will face thus far. Throw in the fact that Stafford will be motivated to crush his former team and I think the Rams can cover.
The pick: Rams -15
Projected score: Rams 34-16
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Raiders derailed one of my best bets last week, as I overestimated the Denver Broncos in a big way. It's possible that the Raiders come down after their emotional road victory last week without Jon Gruden, but this matchup being at home brings me some comfort. This fan base is going to rally around this team with the off-field storm they have had to weather over the past week, and maybe they can carry some momentum into this matchup against what I believe to be an inferior opponent.
The Eagles are coming off a 28-22 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in which they gained a season-low 213 yards of total offense. Jalen Hurts hasn't looked good throwing the football but not enough blame gets put on first-year head coach Nick Sirianni. Per TruMedia, Hurts has found success throwing against man coverage this season. Unfortunately, the Raiders line up in zone defense on 80.9 percent of their defensive snaps, which is the second-highest percentage in the NFL. Give me the Raiders.
The pick: Raiders -3
Projected score: Raiders 27-20
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Is Carson Wentz turning the corner? He has three straight games with two passing touchdowns and no interceptions. He can match Peyton Manning for the longest streak of such games in Colts history this week. Wentz threw nine interceptions through the first six games last season. This season, he has thrown just one. Another reason to be excited about Wentz moving forward? The return of T.Y. Hilton. He caught four passes for 80 yards in his first game back last week and had a 52-yard catch -- which was his longest since 2018.
As for the 49ers, they are coming off of a bye, but have also lost three straight. Jimmy Garoppolo will likely return to the starting lineup after missing one game, even though he thought he would miss a few weeks when he suffered his calf injury. Even with his return, it's not like this offense has been explosive. According to TruMedia, San Francisco averages three plays of 20-plus yards per game, which ranks fifth-fewest in the league this season. That's down from 4.9 per game in 2019 (fourth-most). Approximately 22 percent of Garoppolo's passes have had negative air yards this season, which is the second-highest rate in the NFL. The Colts are getting better while the 49ers haven't won a game in over a month. I'm going to take the points on "Sunday Night Football," and sprinkle on the moneyline.
The pick: Colts +4
Projected score: Colts 28-24
Other Week 7 picks
Broncos (+2) 24-21 over Browns
Giants (+3) 27-23 over Panthers
Chiefs 33-30 over Titans (+5.5)
Falcons (-2.5) 28-23 over Dolphins
Packers (-8.5) 30-21 over Washington
Cardinals 35-20 over Texans (+17.5)
Buccaneers 30-20 over Bears (+12.5)
Saints (-5) 33-20 over Seahawks
So what NFL picks can you make with confidence? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,700 since its inception, and find out.