This mock draft will be a little bit different. Even though my name is on it, these are neither the picks I would make for each team, nor the picks I necessarily think each team will make. Instead, our goal is to capture what the betting world is saying about how the first round of the NFL Draft will unfold using the odds posted in several different markets across multiple sportsbooks.
Why does that matter? We've seen in recent years that the betting market can be ahead of conventional wisdom about what's going to happen in the draft, including last year when Travon Walker went No. 1 overall to the Jaguars instead of Aidan Hutchinson. We saw Trey Lance to the 49ers start to emerge in the betting markets before the connection was made by national reporters in the run up to Draft Day. And we're going to be able to point to several line shifts this year after Thursday's action comes to a close and say, "See, they told us this was going to happen."
Even though betting the NFL Draft involves gauging probabilities and finding value while on the outside looking in, it's not an athletic competition where information only gets you so far. If your sources are good enough, you could theoretically nail every single Round 1 pick in a way that would be impossible if trying to predict the play-by-play of an NFL game. And because betting the NFL Draft is an information race above all else, the sportsbooks have to be careful about what they post, when they post it and how much they allow bettors to "risk."
As of Sunday evening, Bryce Young is -1600 to go No. 1, and the implied odds involved in that say you'd need to be 96% certain he's the pick to play it. But unlike an NFL game, it's possible to have 100% certainty if your sourcing is good enough, which would make even that bet profitable. Bettors have been trying to get ahead of the news on the No. 2 pick like those who took Young when he was closer to even or even the underdog to go first, and we've seen.
For the purposes of this mock, that means slotting Levis in at No. 2, but we do have the freedom to make some trades using my draft pick value chart or use some amount of common sense if the odds don't quite line up with the teams on the clock. Basically, even if the No. 3 spinning wheel lands on a QB, we're not going to force Arizona to draft one, and that extends down the draft.
We'll lean on props involving prospects to get drafted over or under a certain position, at an exact pick or inside the top five, top 10 or first round. We'll also bring position of first draft pick props into the mix as we work through teams, using that prop something like a "team needs" column. And while this is least important, we'll also keep in mind certain markers on total players from a position or conference to be taken in the first round (for example, Under 1.5 running backs in Round 1 is -300 at Caesars Sportsbook, so don't expect to see Jahmyr Gibbs crack this mock draft).
Alright, that's enough table-setting. Let's get into the Betting Market NFL Mock Draft. Remember: There are only 31 picks in this mock draft because the Dolphins were stripped of their first-round pick due to tampering.
For more draft content, check out our latest prospect rankings and mock drafts, as well as our NFL Draft podcast, "With the First Pick," featuring former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. (Check out the latest episode below.)
From Chicago Bears
Round 1 - Pick 1
Bryce Young QB
Alabama • 5'10" / 204 lbs
He's -1600 to -2000 to be taken No. 1 overall heading into draft week after sitting at -400 in the same prop last Monday. That growth happened likely before Carolina even locked in its draft board, so it'll be interesting to see if these odds start to slip at any point over the next four days, which could signal one more twist at the top of Round 1.
Round 1 - Pick 2
Will Levis QB
Kentucky • 6'4" / 229 lbs
So much smoke connected Levis to the Colts that he was basically penciled in to go No. 4 ... until another seismic shift in the No. 2 overall pick prop made him the odds-on favorite to go second at -120 to -140 across books. If the Texans are eyeing a trade to No. 3 from 12 in the hopes of getting a QB and their top defender, it would make sense to take the QB first and not risk Arizona taking a different deal for No. 3. More likely, the Texans stay at 12 or look to trade down.
Round 1 - Pick 3
Tyree Wilson EDGE
Texas Tech • 6'6" / 275 lbs
Wilson and C.J. Stroud are both slight favorites for No. 3 at different major sportsbooks and co-favorites at another. So consider it 50/50 that Arizona finds a trade partner to move down here (again, depending on which book you go with, Will Anderson Jr. and Anthony Richardson are slightly ahead of the other as the third option in the prop). No team past Indianapolis has quarterback as the favorite to be its first position picked, though there are candidates to move up that have it second (Seattle, Tennessee) or third (Detroit, Las Vegas). Wilson is the favorite to be the first defender selected (-140 to -150), and he's -160 to go Under 4.5 in draft position.
Round 1 - Pick 4
C.J. Stroud QB
Ohio State • 6'3" / 218 lbs
Levis remains the clear favorite to go No. 4, but he's obviously off the board in this mock draft. Next up is Stroud, and since no one expects Indianapolis to leave Round 1 without a quarterback, the question is whether it takes one here or makes a trade up one or two spots to get its guy. When comparing Stroud's odds at No. 3 and No. 4, it's only slightly more likely he goes fourth, so be prepared for anything on draft day.
From Denver Broncos
Round 1 - Pick 5
Will Anderson Jr. EDGE
Alabama • 6'4" / 243 lbs
The Seahawks are heavily favored to take a defensive lineman or edge rusher with their first pick instead of a quarterback, and they're getting a guy who is probably on the top of the list for many teams that don't need quarterback. Anderson is -185 to be Over 3.5 in draft position, and he's +175 to go fifth at Caesars while no one else is better than +300.
From Los Angeles Rams
Round 1 - Pick 6
Illinois • 6'0" / 185 lbs
Witherspoon remains the odds-on favorite to go No. 6 at DraftKings and FanDuel but a +130 value at Caesars, where Jalen Carter and Christian Gonzalez are next up at +450. Cornerback is a -130 favorite to be Detroit's first pick versus +130 for defensive lineman or edge and +1000 for a quarterback. This feels like a key trade-up spot for teams looking to land Anthony Richardson with Las Vegas and Atlanta up next, but the Witherspoon-to-Detroit connection is still too strong in the market to project that here. Witherspoon is close to a coin flip to go Over or Under 6.5 in draft position.
Round 1 - Pick 7
Oregon • 6'2" / 205 lbs
The Raiders are +175 to take a cornerback, +200 to take an offensive lineman and +250 to take a quarterback. In terms of draft position props, Gonzalez is -155 to go Under 8.5, Peter Skoronski is -180 to go Under 10.5 and Anthony Richardson is -320 to go Over 4.5. If there aren't any trades in the top six, this is the first real pivot point of the draft. The odds for No. 7 basically handicap the field as Gonzalez first, then Witherspoon and Paris Johnson Jr., then some mix of Skoronski, C.J. Stroud and Tyree Wilson. We're going with the slight favorite in cornerback and specifically Gonzalez.
Mock Trade from Atlanta Falcons
Round 1 - Pick 8
Florida • 6'4" / 244 lbs
Richardson is -130 to go in the top five at DraftKings despite his -320 odds to go Over 4.5 in draft position, and he's -800 to go inside the top 10. It feels like we need to force him onto a team somewhere in the top 10, but the most likely candidate is Tennessee, which is -115 to draft an offensive lineman first and +115 to take a quarterback, a closer gap than with any other candidate for QB. The pick value chart pegs a 2024 second-rounder as a price that makes sense to move from No. 11 to 8, and the Falcons now potentially have three second-round picks (including the conditional pick in the Calvin Ridley deal) to help move up for a QB in next year's draft.
From Carolina Panthers
Round 1 - Pick 9
Jalen Carter DL
Georgia • 6'3" / 314 lbs
Carter is the co-favorite to go No. 9 at +300 along with Darnell Wright, with two other offensive linemen in Peter Skoronski and Paris Johnson just behind. Offensive lineman is also a big -180 favorite to be Chicago's pick. However, that market has a significant position baked in that Carter is going to be gone before Chicago is on the clock. When comparing Carter and Wright, Carter is -160 to go Over 6.5 while Wright is -130 to go Under 15.5 and a still sizable +450 to be the first offensive lineman selected. Carter is the clear play for us here.
Mock Trade from Philadelphia Eagles
Round 1 - Pick 10
Ohio State • 6'6" / 313 lbs
Like Anthony Richardson, Johnson is a massive favorite to go in the top 10 (-400) but may not have a clear spot, especially if the Bears land Carter. The Jets have a dire need at tackle, and if they can afford a small trade up with the Aaron Rodgers deal looming, this trade makes sense for both sides. This trade involves the Eagles trading No. 10 and 62 for No. 13, 42 and 207, but it's also possible Corey Davis could be involved with the speculation the Eagles could look receiver at one of their picks, especially if he takes a pay cut to move to a Super Bowl contender.
Mock Trade from Tennessee Titans
Round 1 - Pick 11
Texas • 5'11" / 215 lbs
Robinson is the slight favorite to go at No. 8 over Nolan Smith, so we'll keep that match in place after Atlanta's trade down. This is the range for Smith, who is either juiced to go Over 10.5 or Under 12.5 depending where you look, but Robinson is also -110 to go in the top 10. When you combine that with him being the favorite to go eighth, that trumps the Falcons being a -135 favorite to take a defensive lineman or edge rusher first.
From Cleveland Browns
Round 1 - Pick 12
Nolan Smith EDGE
Georgia • 6'2" / 238 lbs
With the Texans passing on an edge rusher at No. 2 in favor of a quarterback, they're in play to take an edge rusher here. Smith is projected to go in the 10.5 to 12.5 corridor, so this is the last spot where the market is telling us to put him. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a popular option for this pick as well, but he's -340 to go Over 12.5, so it's not his time yet in this exercise.
Mock Trade from New York Jets
Round 1 - Pick 13
Northwestern • 6'4" / 313 lbs
Paris Johnson is a slight favorite to be the first offensive lineman drafted, but Skoronski is the favorite to specifically go 10th overall, where Philadelphia is currently picking. The Eagles, who often entertain trades up and down the board, are an even stronger candidate to take an offensive lineman first than Chicago at -190, and Skoronski can slide in at guard for the Eagles and immediately strengthen the offensive line for a Super Bowl contender. Skoronski is -180 to go Under 10.5, which makes the connection with the Eagles even more sensible, but with Johnson favored to go first, Philadelphia trades down before landing its guy.
Mock Trade from New England Patriots
Round 1 - Pick 14
Georgia • 6'5" / 311 lbs
The odds are right around equal that the Patriots take an offensive lineman, cornerback or wide receiver with their first pick. They could stay put and take any of those positions here and not bat an eye. Jones is the next up on our board with odds juiced at different sites that he goes Over 13.5 and Under 14.5, but the Buccaneers have a much clearer need at offensive tackle and make sense in a move up, and we know the market is always open for Bill Belichick to trade down. This deal nets the Patriots pick No. 19 and 50, while they give up No. 14, 107 and 135,
Round 1 - Pick 15
Lukas Van Ness EDGE
Iowa • 6'5" / 272 lbs
Van Ness is -200 to go Over 12.5, so the 14-18 range figures to be his sweet spot. And while that's a lot of juice, it's significantly less than -340, which is Jaxon Smith Njigba's price to also go Over 12.5. That makes this pick come down to Van Ness, whose athletic testing fits the mold for Green Bay, or Darnell Wright, who is -130 to go Under 15.5. However, the Wright price is somewhat tied to him being linked to the Bears, and the Packers are favored to go defensive lineman or edge (+150).
Mock Trade from Washington Commanders
Round 1 - Pick 16
Ohio State • 6'0" / 197 lbs
The Texans got their quarterback at No. 2, which takes them out of the market for next year's QB class. But they passed on giving him a No. 1 receiver at 12 in favor of an edge rusher. With Smith-Njigba -340 to go Over 12.5, his range starts at No. 14 with New England, who is poised to take him at No. 18 after trading down in this mock, and extends through No. 23 with Minnesota. Houston can make a bold move to go get JSN as a third first-round pick. The cost? No. 65 and 104 this year, plus its first-round pick in 2024, which could certainly be very high. That's massive, but it also allows Houston to keep No. 33 to trade down and recoup some of that back. With Washington's ownership in transition, this kicks the can down the road and positions the team to land a franchise QB in next year's draft.
Round 1 - Pick 17
Tennessee • 6'6" / 333 lbs
The Steelers are +110 to go cornerback, and there are two projected to go in this range, with Joey Porter Jr. (a familiar name for Pittsburgh) at -160 to go Under 19.5 and Deonte Banks at -130 to go Under 20.5. But we still need a place for Wright after he was slightly juiced to the Under at 15.5, and the Steelers are also +130 to go offensive lineman. Wright fits as the long-term option at right tackle, and Pittsburgh can go get a corner in the second round with better depth at that position.
Round 1 - Pick 18
Myles Murphy EDGE
Clemson • 6'5" / 275 lbs
Murphy is slightly juiced to go Over 18.5 at -130, but the other prospects in play for this draft slot play cornerback, and Detroit took Devon Witherspoon at No. 6. Would it be the wildest move to go cornerback-cornerback in the first round? There's certainly less of a chance that happens than the Lions trading down, but I'm not sure who makes sense to trade up at this point. So the Lions wind up with a Witherspoon-Murphy pairing rather than something like Jalen Carter and Joey Porter Jr. or Deonte Banks. If they have a high grade on either of those corners, that also makes a quarterback in the top 10 more interesting.
Mock Trade from Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Round 1 - Pick 19
Penn State • 6'2" / 194 lbs
The Patriots trade down, turn two of their three fourth-round picks into No. 50 and still get the third corner off the board at No. 19. Porter is a candidate to go a few picks higher in the actual draft, likely to Washington at No. 16 or Pittsburgh at No. 17 but probably not as high as No. 14. This gives the Patriots some extra draft capital while letting the board fall where it may in terms of their three close-to-equal positional options for their first pick in corner, offensive line and receiver.
Round 1 - Pick 20
Deonte Banks CB
Maryland • 6'2" / 205 lbs
This is the slot for Banks with Under 20.5 juiced to -130, and cornerback is third among possibilities for Seattle's first pick behind defensive lineman/edge rusher (addressed earlier) and quarterback. We could consider making this the first potential Hendon Hooker landing spot, and the Seahawks are the second favorite to take him at +900 behind Minnesota. But Hooker is more likely to not be a first-round pick according to his draft position prop, so Banks is the better pick in terms of value.
Round 1 - Pick 21
Notre Dame • 6'4" / 265 lbs
The Chargers are favored to take a receiver with their first pick at +125 with no other position shorter than +300. So slot in the best WR left and we're good, right? Well, the three receivers with draft position props after Jaxon Smith-Njigba are all juiced to the Over 22.5 at -140 at best, so we'd need to figure out a trade down for a Chargers team that never trades down. Instead, they stay put and take the position that's second in their first pick prop, with Mayer at -120 to go Under 23.5.
Round 1 - Pick 22
Mississippi State • 6'0" / 180 lbs
Baltimore could certainly consider trading back and adding draft capital with only five picks at its disposal and none after this until No. 86. And this could certainly be a spot for a team to trade up for Hendon Hooker with Minnesota picking next. But since we have Hooker as juiced to the Over on 31.5, we're going to not force a trade and instead give Baltimore a corner, which it's favored to take at -120. The question becomes Forbes, who is -400 to be a first-round pick, versus slot corner Brian Branch, who doesn't have any props we can use to gauge his range.
Mock Trade from Minnesota Vikings
Round 1 - Pick 23
USC • 5'11" / 175 lbs
The Vikings are in play for a corner or receiver but also Hendon Hooker, who the market has tabbed as slightly juiced to go Over -31.5. The Vikings are solid +350 favorites to be the team to draft Hooker with no one else shorter than +900. So the Chiefs, who are favored to take a receiver, trade the No. 31, 95 and 217 picks to get to 23 and take the second receiver off the board, whether that's Addison or Zay Flowers. The juice on Addison to go Over 22.5 is slightly lower at -140 versus -170, so we're going that route, but basically flip a coin for either.
Round 1 - Pick 24
Alabama • 6'0" / 203 lbs
This has continued to be a popular pick in mock draft land with Branch looking like a great fit at slot corner for Jacksonville. The Jaguars are +120 to take a corner first, with no other position shorter than +250, so if they have the chance to land Branch they figure to do so. It wouldn't be surprising to see them trade up to ensure they get him either, and I nearly had the Giants send their fourth-round pick to Baltimore to move up three spots and land Branch before Jacksonville could. Would the Jaguars make that same deal just to be safe?
Mock Trade from New York Giants
Round 1 - Pick 25
Oklahoma • 6'5" / 315 lbs
The Colts addressed their quarterback need at the top but still have a massive hole at left tackle. Luckily for them, Harrison falls into range for a trade-up here. He doesn't have odds to go in the first round, which means he's a shoo-in for the sportsbooks, and the juice on there being Over 5.5 total offensive lineman drafted in Round 1 is -500 at Caesars. Harrison is the fifth for us, so we'll need to slot at least one more in over the rest of this first round, and potentially two.
Round 1 - Pick 26
Utah • 6'4" / 240 lbs
Kincaid is the next tight end up on our board with -130 juice on Over 24.5, and the Cowboys are favored to go tight end with their first pick at +200. The total Round 1 tight ends props is also heavily juiced to go Over 2 at -350 on DraftKings but -200 to be Under 2.5 at Caesars, so even with Kincaid's back issues and the shift toward Mayer as the tight end to go first, the Utah product still figures to be close to a Round 1 lock.
Round 1 - Pick 27
Zay Flowers WR
Boston College • 5'9" / 182 lbs
Between the Chargers passing on a receiver and the Giants trading down, Flowers is still available at a solid value for Buffalo after checking in at -170 to go Over 22.5. Receiver is just third in shortest odds for Buffalo's first pick, but linebacker would be a stretch here and defensive lineman/edge rusher isn't exactly a strong favorite at +200. That leaves a number of options for the Bills, including taking the receiver who could be second at the position on a lot of boards.
Round 1 - Pick 28
Pittsburgh • 6'1" / 281 lbs
We go a little bit off the beaten path for Cincinnati's first pick thanks to the top two tight ends being off the board. Next up in its first pick odds is cornerback, but with six off the board, the best value available is Kelee Ringo at +185 to be a first-round pick. Kancey is -210 in the same prop, while Bryan Bresee is -120 to go Over 29.5. One of those feels like the best fit here over an offensive lineman, with the best players there on the interior rather than tackle.
From San Francisco 49ers
Round 1 - Pick 29
O'Cyrus Torrence IOL
Florida • 6'5" / 347 lbs
We're running out of runway to get a sixth offensive lineman in the mix, so let's have the Saints bypass defensive lineman/edge rusher (+105) for an offensive lineman (+200), specifically someone who can fill a need at guard. Torrence is -175 to be a first-round pick, and the Saints met with the Florida prospect during the draft process, so it's a match that makes sense.
Round 1 - Pick 30
Will McDonald IV EDGE
Iowa State • 6'3" / 241 lbs
The Eagles traded down from No. 10 before taking Peter Skoronski to slot in at guard, and defensive lineman/edge rusher is the second favorite to be their first pick. Here they're able to land some pass-rush help in McDonald, a lighter pass-rusher a la Haason Reddick. He's -320 to be a first-round pick, so there's a possibility he goes much higher than this even though he's been a fringe first-rounder for much of the mock draft calendar.
Mock Trade from Kansas City Chiefs
Round 1 - Pick 31
TCU • 6'4" / 215 lbs
I expected when we made this move down for Minnesota that it'd be taking Hendon Hooker at this slot, but with Johnston still on the board despite being just -155 to go Over 26.5, he's the value play for a team that is favored to go receiver with its first pick. Perhaps the market shifts in Hooker's favor before Thursday, but with the Tennessee quarterback sitting at -120 to go Over 31.5, we can't slot him him here over a guy who is -400 to be a first-round pick.