Another winning week for Dajani Dimes, as we went 9-7 against the spread and 11-5 straight up. I'm still miffed about a couple of those games, however. The New York Giants had a miracle cover against the Dallas Cowboys, and then the Los Angeles Chargers couldn't cover on the road against the Arizona Cardinals -- which was surprising given their great ATS record away from L.A. How about those Washington Commanders though? They are truly our cash cow.
Week 13 features some exciting matchups. The New England Patriots have a chance to score a statement victory at home against the Buffalo Bills, Deshaun Watson returns to Houston, Mike McDaniel returns to The Bay and the Tennessee Titans take on their former star wideout A.J. Brown and the Philadelphia Eagles. Expect the unexpected.
Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Top five picks ATS record: 32-27-1
Overall ATS record: 97-77-6
Straight up record: 117-62-1
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-8)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Broncos offense has been flailing all season, but now their elite defense isn't playing as well. The Ravens, on the other hand, are coming off a devastating loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Despite holding first place in the AFC North, Baltimore has had kind of a rough season. The Ravens are the fourth team in NFL history to lead by more than one score in each of their first 11 games. The other three teams to accomplish this started their seasons 11-0. The Ravens are 7-4.
I think the Ravens take some anger out on the Broncos in Baltimore on Sunday. I mean, Denver's defense allowed a Sam Darnold-led offense to rack up 349 yards of total offense last week in a 13-point win for the Carolina Panthers.
The pick: Ravens -8
Projected score: Ravens 28-13
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
"I've owned you all my f-ing life! I own you, I still own you!" The words every Bears fan hates to hear.
Aaron Rodgers hasn't had a great season, but the Packers have dominated the Bears. Matt LaFleur is 7-0 SU and ATS vs. Chicago. I understand there's questions concerning Rodgers' health, but it sounds like he's going to play. This is a rebound spot, as Rodgers gets to face a defense that has kept the Bears in the "L" column for over a month.
It remains to be seen if Justin Fields will play, and how he will fare with this shoulder injury. But I like the Packers in this spot. Even though they didn't cover the spread against the Eagles last week, I think everyone was surprised with how they battled.
The pick: Packers -4.5
Projected score: Packers 24-17
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-4)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
I like the Dolphins more than the 49ers, and I'm taking the points with them this week. This is a revenge game for former 49ers assistant Mike McDaniel and former 49ers running back Jeff Wilson. You know what's funny? Wilson is still San Francisco's leading rusher this season, having rushed for 227 more yards than anyone else on their roster. Wilson is averaging 69.7 rushing yards and one touchdown per contest in three games played for the Dolphins.
This is a fascinating matchup as Miami rides its offense to victories, while San Francisco relies on its defense. Tua Tagovailoa still hasn't lost a game this season when he plays the entire contest, and is 5-0 since he returned from his concussion. He hasn't thrown an interception since September! People tell me defense wins championships, but I say offense wins this game. I think a way to beat the 49ers is by punching them in the mouth first -- much like the Atlanta Falcons did last month. The Dolphins are third in yards per game while the 49ers are 10th. Miami averages 25.6 points per game, while the 49ers average 22.6. Give me the high-flying offense with the quarterback who hasn't lost yet.
The pick: Dolphins +4
Projected score: Dolphins 30-24
Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Rams have lost five straight games, and two out of their last three have come by double digits. We don't know if Matthew Stafford will return to the lineup (why would he?) and now Aaron Donald is injured. Allen Robinson was recently placed on injured reserve, and Cooper Kupp is still out as well. All in all, this just feels like a bounce-back spot for the Seahawks after their tough overtime loss to the Las Vegas Raiders at home.
Plus ... C'mon Geno Smith and Co., it's time to go. Seattle has lost two straight games, and went from division leader to currently out of the playoffs. This is a game the Seahawks should show up and dominate in. Obviously I don't love the hook, but I'll still take it under 10.
The pick: Seahawks -7.5
Projected score: Seahawks 24-13
Kansas City Chiefs (-2) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
I'm calling my shot here. The Bengals faced a team out for revenge against them last week in the Titans, and they stiff-armed Derrick Henry and Co. away. Now, Cincy gets the motivated Chiefs, who lost to the Bengals twice last year, at Paycor Stadium. Apart from home-field advantage, the Bengals also have Joe Mixon and potentially Ja'Marr Chase returning to the lineup, so this red-hot team is ready for a high-powered AFC showdown.
The Chiefs haven't lost since Oct. 16. It feels like they are due for a loss this weekend. The Chiefs have a 5-6 ATS record compared to the Bengals' 8-3 ATS record, and are a shocking 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. the AFC. I get that Patrick Mahomes is well on his way to his second MVP and that the No. 1 seed in the AFC is virtually reserved for Kansas City, but I think this is a time to buy Bengals stock. Cincinnati wins its third straight vs. Kansas City. Give me the upset.
The pick: Bengals +2
Projected score: Bengals 31-28
Other Week 13 picks
Bills 27-24 over Patriots (+3.5)
Giants (+2.5) 21-16 over Commanders
Eagles 26-23 over Titans (+5)
Vikings (-3) 27-21 over Jets
Falcons (+1) 28-20 over Steelers
Browns (-7) 27-14 over Texans
Lions (+1) 28-24 over Jaguars
Chargers (-1.5) 30-27 over Raiders
Cowboys (-11) 28-14 over Colts
Buccaneers (-3.5) 23-13 over Saints