Let's get this out of the way in the very first sentence: I am picking against the Kansas City Chiefs again this week.

You'd think I'd learn my lesson with these picks.

I am 47-29-2 straight up picking games this year, but 1-4 picking Chiefs games.

So why do it again?

I think the New England Patriots with extra time will slow down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. The Jaguars did some of that last week when Mahomes was held without a touchdown pass and threw two interceptions, his first two of the season.

This time around, the Patriots will scheme up things to slow down the offense. Belichick is the game's brightest defensive mind and he has extra time to prepare for this one. 

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On the other side, Sony Michel and James White will run through the Chiefs defense, keeping Kansas City's offense off the field. This will be one of those games where Tom Brady will make some big throws off play action, but don't expect a ton of attempts.

With a victory, the Patriots will quiet all those skeptics who wondered if the dynasty was done three weeks ago? 

So, yes, I am picking against the Chiefs again.

But I don't hate them, like many in Kansas City think I do. I love watching Patrick Mahomes sling it around. After all, I love the passing game.

It's just I think New England will be the better team Sunday night.

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Philadelphia at New York Giants 

Time: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NFL Network, Fox)

Line: Eagles -3

The Eagles just don't look right, and it starts with the offensive line. The receivers aren't getting open, either. The Giants looked better on offense last week against the Panthers, and I think that carries over here. On a short week, I will take the home team. 

Pick: Giants 27, Eagles 21

Tampa Bay at Atlanta 

Time: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. (Fox)

Line: Falcons -3.5

Expect a lot of points in this one since both defenses have major issues. Jameis Winston will make his first start here for the Bucs, and it's a depleted defense he will be facing. But Matt Ryan will have a good day as well. In the end, the Falcons will win it in a wild shootout. 

Pick: Falcons 41, Bucs 36

Carolina at Washington

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox)

Line: Redskins -1

The Redskins are playing on a short week and looked awful in losing to the Saints. But I think they rebound here. They did that earlier in the year and it will play out that way again. The Panthers nearly blew a late lead last week to the Giants, but rallied to win on a 63-yard field goal. That was at home. This is on the road, and the Redskins will take it. 

Pick: Redskins 24, Panthers 20 

Seattle at Oakland (In London)

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox)

Line: Seahawks -3

The Raiders have major issues on defense and the Seahawks haven't been the same on that side of the ball this year either. So that should mean a lot of points for the London folks. Russell Wilson threw three touchdown passes last week and will have the same type of game here. Seattle wins it. 

Pick: Seahawks 30, Raiders 24

Indianapolis at New York Jets

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Line: Jets -2.5

The Jets got their running game going in a big way last week against the Broncos, so expect more of that here. The Colts have been better on defense than some expected, but look for the Jets to run it on them a bunch here. Andrew Luck is throwing a lot of passes. Too many, in fact. That number has to go down. Jets will win it behind their running game. 

Pick: Jets 21, Colts 14

Arizona at Minnesota

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox)

Line: Vikings -10

The Cardinals are playing consecutive road games after beating the 49ers last week, and this is a big step up in terms of opponent. Minnesota got back on track against the Eagles last week, but I think the Cardinals will be able to keep this one closer than expected. They won't win here like the Bills did a few weeks back, but they will stay in the game. 

Pick: Vikings 23, Cardinals 20

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati 

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Line: Bengals -2.5

The Steelers looked much better on defense last week against the Falcons, which will carry over here. The Bengals are 31st in the league in third-down defense. That's never a good thing against the Steelers passing game. I think Pittsburgh is starting to get on a little roll. Steelers will win this road game. 

Pick: Steelers 30, Bengals 23

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Line: Chargers -1

The Browns are one of the surprise teams so far, and it's because of the defense. It has been outstanding. But Philip Rivers is playing great football, so something has to give. I think the Browns defense will play well again, but Rivers will get a late touchdown to win this one. 

Pick: Chargers 21, Browns 17

Buffalo at Houston 

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Line: Texans -10

This is a game that features the two worst offensive lines in the league. The two quarterbacks have taken a beating. And they will do so here. But I will go with Deshaun Watson at home, rather than Josh Allen on the road. 

Pick: Texans 24, Bills 14

Chicago at Miami

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox)

Line: Bears -3

The Bears are coming off a bye that followed an offensive explosion. The Dolphins have lost two straight on the road and blew a big lead last week against the Bengals. But back home in the heat of South Florida, I think the Dolphins will play good defense here and find a way to pull off an upset. 

Pick: Dolphins 23, Bears 17

Los Angeles Rams at Denver

Time: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. (Fox)

Line: Rams -7

The Rams have been scoring on everybody and Denver is coming off a game where the Jets ran through them at will. That means a lot of Todd Gurley here. The flip side is the Rams have had issues stopping the run as well. I look for Denver to run it a bunch to try and slow the game down. They will. Rams win it, but it's close. 

Pick: Rams 22, Broncos 20

Baltimore at Tennessee 

Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Line: Ravens -2.5

The Ravens are playing a third straight road game, which is brutal. They didn't play well on offense against the Browns last week and the Titans do have a good defense. This won't be easy. But I think the Ravens are the better team and will pull out a tough, physical road victory. 

Pick: Ravens 21, Titans 17

Jacksonville at Dallas 

Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Line: Jaguars -3

This is a game that might set offensive football back a few years. The Jaguars looked awful last week in losing to the Chiefs and now are playing consecutive road games. But the Cowboys offense is primitive, which is not a good way to play the tough Jaguars defense. That will be the difference. Jacksonville wins a low-scoring game. 

Pick: Jaguars 17, Cowboys 13

Kansas City at New England

Time: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

Line: Patriots -3.5

This is the game of the week with the undefeated Chiefs facing the Patriots. The Chiefs looked better on defense last week against Jacksonville, but I think the Patriots run through them in this one. Patrick Mahomes will be limited by the schemes of Bill Belichick here and the Patriots will win it.

Pick: Patriots 27, Chiefs 20

San Francisco at Green Bay

Time: Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Line: Packers -9.5

Is this the week the Packers start playing like a playoff team? They just haven't looked right, but I do think that changes here. Aaron Rodgers looked to be the Rodgers of old last week against the Lions. That carries over against a bad 49ers defense. Packers win big. 

Pick: Packers 31, 49ers 13