We are almost halfway through the NFL offseason, and it's certainly been a dramatic one. The Denver Broncos lured Sean Payton out of retirement, Aaron Rodgers is now a Jet and all 32 teams made big additions in the 2023 NFL Draft.
This is a good time to reset and examine some NFL win totals, and see how they've moved since the conclusion of the draft. Here are the Over/Under win totals for every NFL team, compared to what they were on March 27.
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Team | Current Win Total | March 27 Win Total |
---|---|---|
5.5 (Under -160) | 5.5 | |
8 (-110) | 7.5 | |
9.5 (Over -130) | 8.5 | |
10.5 (Over -125) | 10.5 | |
7.5 (-110) | 7.5 | |
11.5 (Under -125) | 11.5 | |
8.5 (Over -175) | 8.5 | |
7.5 (Over -120) | 7.5 | |
9.5 (Over -150) | 9.5 | |
8.5 (-110) | 8.5 | |
9.5 (Over -130) | 9 | |
7.5 (Under -130) | 7.5 | |
5.5 (Over -120) | 5.5 | |
6.5 (Over -125) | 6.5 | |
11.5 (Over -115) | 11.5 | |
9.5 (Over -115) | 9.5 | |
7.5 (Under -155) | 7.5 | |
9.5 (Over -140) | 9.5 | |
7.5 (Under -140) | 7.5 | |
9.5 (Under -130) | 9.5 | |
8.5 (Over -160) | 8.5 | |
7.5 (Over -115) | 7.5 | |
9.5 (Under -130) | 9.5 | |
8.5 (Under -135) | 8.5 | |
9.5 (Over -140) | 9.5 | |
10.5 (Over -165) | 10.5 | |
11.5 (Under -155) | 11.5 | |
8.5 (Over -135) | 8.5 | |
8.5 (Over -140) | 8.5 | |
6.5 (Under -130) | 6.5 | |
7.5 (Under -130) | 7.5 | |
7.5 (Under -170) | 7.5 |
We didn't see the kind of line movement some were expecting after the draft. The Falcons moved from 7.5 to an even 8 wins, while the Lions went from 9 to 9.5. It's pretty wild to think about, but Detroit is the favorite to win the NFC North at +155.
The big mover over the last month was the Ravens, as they went from 8.5 to 9.5. This was most likely not because of the draft, but the Lamar Jackson extension. Hours before the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, Jackson agreed to a five-year deal worth $260 million with Baltimore, which includes $185 million guaranteed. Jackson's new AAV of $52 million makes him the highest-paid player in NFL history.
The Ravens hired a new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken this offseason, Jackson is back in the fold and Baltimore added wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. in free agency and Zay Flowers in the draft. The AFC North is going to be very interesting in 2023.
Even though there wasn't much movement on the totals, the juice did see some changes; for example, the Jets' Over went from -120 to -140 after the Rodgers deal -- something that was expected in March but not yet finalized. And the Vikings' Over went from -115 to -160 after Rodgers left the division and the team added Jordan Addison in the first round to pair with Justin Jefferson. Meanwhile, the Rams' Under, which had been +105, now sits at -155.