For the first time in nearly two decades the Raiders are going to be favored by more than a touchdown in a road game. In the opening odds for Week 13, the Raiders have opened as a 7.5-point favorite against the Jets in a game that will be played at MetLife Stadium.
Although 7.5 points doesn't sound like a huge number, it is for the Raiders, who have only been favored by that many on the road one other time this century. The last time the Raiders were this big of a favorite on the road came all the way back in 2002 when they were a 9.5-point favorite for a road game being played in Arizona. The Raiders won that game 41-20, which means they're 1-0 ATS this century when being favored by 7.5 points or more on the road. The 2002 season is also the last time the Raiders made it to the Super Bowl.
The Raiders aren't the only team that's favored big for the first time in years. The Dolphins have opened as an 11.5 point favorite over the Bengals, marking the first time in 17 years that Miami has been favored by at least 11 points in any game, home or away. The last time it happened came in Week 1 of 2003 and in a game where the Dolphins actually got upset. Back in 2003, Texans won 21-20 over a Miami team that was favored by 14.5 points.
It was a wild Week 12 Sunday and there's a lot to go over. John Breech, Ryan Wilson and host Will Brinson break it all down on the Pick Six Podcast; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness fired into your eardrums.
With that in mind, let's check out the rest of the opening point spreads for Week 13.
NFL Week 13 early odds
(All lines from William Hill Sportsbook unless noted, all games on Sunday unless noted)
Opening line: Saints -3
The Saints have dominated this rivalry over the past two years going 5-1 both straight-up and ATS in their past six games against the Falcons. The Saints have also covered in four straight games this season, including the past two without Drew Brees. Speaking of Brees, the Saints are 7-0 both straight-up and ATS without him since the start of last season. As for the Falcons, they're 11-3 ATS In their past 14 games as a home underdog, which includes their Week 12 game where they covered in a win over a Raiders team that was favored by three.
Opening line: Bears -4
In the past five games between these two teams, the Bears have gone 5-0 straight-up and 4-1 ATS. Back in Week 1, the Lions were leading 23-6, but the Bears ended up making a comeback and covering as a 2.5-point underdog in a 27-23 win. One reason to like the Lions is because teams that fire their coaches have been a good bet this year. Matt Patricia was the third head coach fired this season along with Bill O'Brien and Dan Quinn. In the other two instances where a coach was fired, the Texans and Falcons both won and covered in the first game they played following the firing.
Opening line: Titans -4
Although the Browns have turned things around this year, they're still a team you want to avoid betting on when they play in a road game. In their past 11 games away from Cleveland, the Browns have gone 1-10 ATS (3-8 straight-up) and that includes Sunday's game in Jacksonville where they didn't cover as a 6.5-point favorite. As for the Titans, they've been nearly unbeatable in the past 10 games where they've been favored by three or more, going 8-2 straight-up. However, they haven't done such a great job covering in that situation, going just 5-5 ATS.
Bengals (2-8-1) at Dolphins (7-4)
Opening line: Dolphins -11.5
You probably don't want to bet on an upset in this game and that's because the Bengals are winless in their last 19 games away from Cincinnati (0-18-1 straight-up). That being said, they have done a good job of covering during that streak, going 11-8 ATS. As for the Dolphins, they're 6-1 ATS in their past seven games. The Dolphins are also 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games played at home dating back to last season.
Opening line: Vikings -9.5
Dating back to Week 3, the Jaguars have been one of the worst teams in the NFL. Not only are they 0-9 straight-up, but they're also 3-6 ATS in that span. They're also an ugly 4-16 ATS in their past 20 games against NFC teams and an even uglier 3-17 straight-up. As for the Vikings, they're 19-8 ATS against AFC teams since hiring Mike Zimmer in 2014 (18-11 straight-up). On the other hand, the Vikings haven't been covering as big favorites. In their past six games where they were favored by nine or more, Minnesota has gone 1-4-1 ATS.
Raiders (6-5) at N.Y. Jets (0-11)
Opening line: Raiders -7.5
One worrisome thing about the Raiders in this spot is that this game is being played in the eastern time zone, where they're 4-9 straight-up and 4-8-1 ATS since the start of the 2017 season. That total includes a game last season where the Raiders got blown out 34-3 by the Jets in New York in a game where the Raiders were favored by 3.5. As for the Jets, they're 0-12 straight-up and 3-9 ATS in the past 12 games where they were an underdog of a touchdown or more. The Jets are also 3-8 ATS on the season, which is the second-worst mark in the NFL.
Washington (4-7) at Steelers (10-0)
Opening line: Steelers -10.5
Since the start of the 2019 season, Washington is just 2-5 both straight-up and ATS against teams from the AFC. That being said, if there's one spot where Washington does seem to thrive, it's as a double-digit underdog. In their past 10 games where they were an underdog of 10 or more, Washington has gone 7-3 ATS (1-9 straight-up). The reason this could be a good thing for Washington is because the Steelers can't seem to cover anything when they're favored by 10 or more. In the past eight games where the Steelers were favored by double-digits, they've gone just 1-7 ATS (7-1 straight-up).
Colts (7-4) at Texans (4-7)
Opening line: Colts -2.5
After starting the season 1-7 ATS, the Texans have suddenly covered in three straight games. Of course, this might not be the week where you want to jump on their betting bandwagon and that's because they rarely cover against the Colts. Since the start of the 2013 season, the Texans are 3-10-1 ATS against the Colts (5-9 straight-up). The Colts are also 3-1 both straight-up and ATS in their past four road games.
Opening line: Rams -1.5
The Cardinals started the season 5-2 ATS, but since then, they've turned into a gambler's worst nightmare. In their past four games, the Cards have gone 0-4 ATS, including Sunday's loss to New England. Things aren't going to get any easier this week and that's because the Cardinals will be playing a Rams team that has absolutely dominated them. Since Sean McVay was hired in 2017, the Rams have gone 6-0 straight-up and 5-0-1 ATS against Arizona.
Opening line: Seahawks -9
The Giants have somehow turned into one of the safest bets in the NFL over the past few weeks, going 6-2 ATS in their past eight games (4-4 straight-up). Amazingly, they've actually been even better on the road, going 8-1 ATS in their past nine road games (3-6 straight-up). That being said, this game is being played in Seattle where the Seahawks have been unbeatable this year. Heading into Week 13, the Seahawks are 5-0 straight-up in Seattle this year, making them the only NFC team that's still unbeaten at home (4-1 ATS). One thing to keep an eye on in this game is the health of Daniel Jones, who injured his hamstring during Sunday's win.
Opening line: Packers -7.5
The Packers are playing at home in December, which always bad news for their opponent and here's why: Since the start of the 2009 season, Aaron Rodgers is 18-2 in December home games and 16-4 ATS. As for the Eagles, they've been a disaster on the road this year, going 1-4 both straight-up and ATS.
Opening line: Chargers -1
The Chargers are 0-5 ATS in their past five games, which is the longest active non-covering streak in the NFL right now. The Chargers are also just 5-14-1 ATS in their past 20 home games. If you look at more recent history, things haven't been much better as they're 3-9 straight-up in their past 12 homes games. Basically, the Chargers don't have much of a home-field advantage. The Patriots are an underdog in this game, which is notable, because they actually seem to do pretty well as an underdog. Since the start of the 2014 season, the Patriots have gone 9-3 ATS and 8-4 straight-up.
Opening line: Chiefs -13.5
Betting on the Chiefs to cover when they're playing against an AFC West team has been one of the easiest ways to make money over the past five years. Since November 2015, the Chiefs have gone 30-3 straight up against divisional opponents and 22-10-1 ATS. That total includes going 10-0 straight-up and 9-1 ATS against the Broncos the past 10 times these two teams have played.
Opening line: TBA
This game was originally supposed to be played on Thursday, but now it's been moved to Monday. That probably won't matter to Lamar Jackson though and that's because he's NEVER lost a start to an NFC team. In eight career starts against NFC teams, Jackson has gone 8-0 straight-up, but just 3-5 ATS, including 0-2 ATS against the NFC East this year. As for the Cowboys, they're 1-6 both straight-up and ATS In their past seven road games. They're also 2-9 ATS on the season, which is the worst mark in the NFL.
Opening line: Bills -2.5
Playing on a Monday has been disastrous for the Bills over the past five years. Since 2015, they're 0-4 straight-up and 0-3-1 ATS on "Monday Night Football." In that same span, they're 1-6 straight-up and 1-5-1 ATS in all primetime games. One thing to like about the Bills though is that they're 5-0 ATS and 4-1 straight-up in their past five games against NFC teams and that only loss came on a Hail Mary. As for the 49ers, they're 8-2 ATS In their past 10 regular season games against the AFC (7-3 straight-up). They're also 12-3 ATS In their past 15 Monday games, but keep in mind, when you look at more recent numbers, they're just 1-3 straight-up and 2-2 ATS in their past four.