How many weeks can I play the same tired tune?
It goes like this: My picks stunk again last week.
After a nice surge a month ago, the picks have been average to below average the past two weeks.
That means it's time for a nice close.
I was jokingly going to use a coin to make my picks this week – and I still might when it comes to my Best Bets, which tells you how bad they were last week – but these are my actual takes on the games this week.
I can't wait to see several of them – including the Ravens at the Chargers, the Steelers at the Saints and the Chiefs at the Seahawks. Those three games have giant playoff implications.
Let's hope my picks this week have a playoff feel as well, surging to a strong finish and not going into the toilet like the Jacksonville Jaguars have this season.
(Stream Saturday's and all of Sunday's games on fuboTV, try it for free, and stream the CBS games on CBS All Access.)
Washington at Tennessee (-10)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (NFL Network)
These two teams are still fighting for a playoff spot, even if the Redskins are a bit of a long shot. Washington is playing consecutive road games with Josh Johnson at quarterback. That's tough sledding. The Titans have come alive behind the running of Derrick Henry and that will continue here.
Pick: Titans 27, Redskins 13
Result: Titans 25, Redskins 16
Baltimore at Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5)
Saturday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NFL Network)
This is one of the big games this week with two teams that need it. This is a long trip for the Ravens on a short week against a team with extra rest. I think the Chargers are on a roll right now and they will limit Lamar Jackson. The Chargers will take it.
Pick: Chargers 23, Ravens 13
Result: Ravens 22, Chargers 10
New York Giants at Indianapolis (-9.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Colts have a good chance to get into the postseason and have won two straight. The defense has made big strides. The Giants are playing out the string and looked awful last week. The Colts will have an easy time of it in this one.
Pick: Colts 27, Giants 10
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Houston at Philadelphia (-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Eagles stunned the Rams with Nick Foles last week to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Texans didn't look great in beating the Jets last week and now must head out on the road again. The Eagles are playing for survival and I think that shows as their defensive line dominates. Eagles take it.
Pick: Eagles 24, Texans 16
Green Bay at New York Jets (-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
It looks as if Aaron Rodgers will play here in this meaningless game. He wants to play, so why not? If he does, the Packers will win this game. If he doesn't, they won't. I say he plays and they do. Packers take it.
Pick: Packers 27, Jets 20
Cincinnati at Cleveland (-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Browns are playing good football right now and are building something for the long haul. The Bengals have a ton of injuries to key players, but did find a way to win last week. Not this week. The Browns are rolling and will continue that in this one.
Pick: Browns 27, Bengals 17
Jacksonville at Miami (-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Dolphins are alive – barely. But the Jaguars season has long been over and has to be considered a major disaster. What's the motivation for the Jaguars? Is there any? I think Miami will still play hard and find a way to pull this one out.
Pick: Dolphins 20, Jaguars 10
Tampa Bay at Dallas (-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Cowboys are coming off a horrible-looking shutout loss to the Colts. The Bucs, though, are playing consecutive road games and they have struggled much of this season on defense. Look for Dak Prescott to get back on track as the Cowboys win the game easily.
Pick: Cowboys 27, Bucs 14
Minnesota (-5.5) at Detroit
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Vikings got the running game going last week against Miami, and will want to do so again here. But the Lions are good against the run, which will make this a Kirk Cousins game. He won't need to get much since the Vikings defense will limit the Detroit offense. The Vikings win it, but it's close.
Pick: Vikings 19, Lions 16
Buffalo at New England (-12.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Bills have done a solid job of playing hard for the entire season. That's a good sign. The Patriots have lost two straight games, so they have issues. But this will be a game to fix them. The Patriots will get back on track with a big victory.
Pick: Patriots 28, Bills 13
Atlanta at Carolina (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Panthers have shut down Cam Newton, because of his injured shoulder, which means Taylor Heinicke will start. This will be his first NFL start, which will be a challenge. The Falcons should be able to throw the ball against the Carolina defense, which will be the difference in this one.
Pick: Falcons 26, Panthers 16
Chicago (-4) at San Francisco
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
This is a be-careful game for the Bears. The 49ers are playing good football and they are coming off an upset of the Seahawks. The Bears are special on defense, but this could be a game where the offense struggles. Look for a close Bears victory.
Pick: Bears 21, 49ers 20
Los Angeles Rams (-14) at Arizona
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Rams have looked bad the past two weeks in losses and need to get back on track. I think this is the game where they will. The offense has struggled, but it won't here – even if Todd Gurley isn't a go. The pass rush will get all over Josh Rosen. This will be a blowout.
Pick: Rams 30, Cardinals 13
Pittsburgh at New Orleans (-5.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
This will be fun to watch, even though both defense are coming off impressive games. I think the Saints being back home will get Drew Brees going again after three average games. But the Steelers will also score. Look for a nice passing game from both Brees and Ben Roethlisberger, but it will be Brees who gets the best of it.
Pick: Saints 31, Steelers 30
Kansas City (-2.5) at Seattle
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Both teams are coming off tough losses and need this game. That will make for a classic battle between the Chiefs offense and Patrick Mahomes against the Seattle defense, which plays especially well at home. I think the key, though, will be Seattle's ability to run the football and control the clock. I think they will and win this game.
Pick: Seahawks 28, Chiefs 23
Denver (-2.5) at Oakland
Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
This is a bad present on Christmas Eve considering the state of these two. This will be the last game for the Raiders in Oakland, which could mean an ugly setting. Even so, I think at home the Raiders will play well for the home crowd. Raiders take it.
Pick: Raiders 23, Broncos 17
