A new spate of injuries brings a new slate of start/sit debates and we're here to answer them all for every matchup on the slate. There are glaring Week 11 examples of players you should start and sit. There are also examples of sleepers who could provide unexpected production and big names who could flop based on these Week 11 matchups. Every week we'll break down every game on the slate and pinpoint the players you need to know in every matchup.
The best part is that you get to have a say in who makes this story every week! Follow me on Twitter and look for my weekly #SSSB polls to help me choose who I analyze.
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him
Projections powered by
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Knox should have scored at least once last week -- Josh Allen missed him wide open in the end zone on the Bills' first drive, then again when he was a little less wide open on the last drive of the first half. Knox ran only four second-half routes as the Bills made Week 9 all about Stefon Diggs. This week they'll play a zone-heavy Colts pass defense (ninth-most zone snaps this season). That should work out for Knox, who has an insane 89% catch rate against zone coverage (56% versus man) and has five explosive receptions of 16-plus yards against zone compared to one against man. The Colts not only have allowed a 77% catch rate to tight ends on the season (fourth-most in football), but they've afforded 12-plus PPR points to the position in each of their past three games and five of their past seven. Hopefully, Allen remembers to look for Knox this week.
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Sit Him
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Nothing's changed with Sanders after I wrote about him as a bust candidate last week. Did he keep his spot atop the league in average target depth? Yes, but he only had one deep target (16 yards) last week. Is he still the leader of end-zone targets? Nope, now he's tied with four other receivers including Diggs (Sanders had none in Week 10). And he's still miserable in yards after the catch per reception (1.67, now second-worst ahead of only Marquez Callaway). If you start Sanders, you're hoping for him to come through on a big play or two. The Colts have given up just 29 pass plays of 20-plus yards in 2021, including a mere four to wide receivers in their past three games. If you thought Sanders had a slim chance against the Jets, then you must think he has next to no chance against the Colts. I wouldn't risk him in lineups unless my other options were guys with minimal upside (like Callaway, or Marvin Jones or Tyler Boyd).
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sit Him
Projections powered by
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Moore hasn't put up 10-plus PPR points in any of his past three games and hasn't had 15-plus PPR points since Week 4. Since Week 5 he has led all Panthers receivers in every significant metric except one: catch rate, which was 51.9%. Of the 52 throws he has seen, he has caught 27 and didn't have a chance at 11 of them (including one from Cam Newton that was thrown behind him last week). He also is blamed for four drops. And Moore remains a minimal part of the Panthers offense when they get 10 yards or closer to the goal line (six targets this season, four catches, three scores). Not only does Newton's return further narrow the overall number of targets available, especially near the goal line, but there's nothing that suggests a vast improvement of target quality from Newton compared to Sam Darnold. Newton ranked 29th among quarterbacks in on-target rate in 2020. Washington's defense is coming off an impressive game against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers and has a pretty good understanding of Newton's strengths and weaknesses.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Flex Starter
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Sneaky Sleeper
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Before he got hurt in Week 6, Murray led the way in snaps played inside of 10 yards (9 of 24), snaps on third and fourth downs (21 of 73), total yards from scrimmage (237) and total touches (63). But he didn't look good doing it, tacking on ugly inefficiencies in yards per carry (3.6) and yards before contact (1.0). Devonta Freeman hasn't been bad in his place and may have earned himself the lead role Murray previously held. The most likely conclusion is both play a bunch (Ty'Son Williams remains an afterthought) with Murray having a nudge in short-yardage/goal-line situations. The Bears have allowed a touchdown to a running back in each of their last five games and 90-plus total yards in three of their past four. Murray feels touchdown-needy while Freeman has appeal as a safe non-PPR flex.
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Sit Him
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Fields has shown signs of impeccable play, particularly in the comeback effort at Pittsburgh, but this matchup figures to be problematic. On the year, Fields has played better versus zone coverages and when he's not pressured. The Ravens play the third-most man coverage (40.1%) in the league, they pressure quarterbacks at the ninth-highest rate (31.8%) and blitz at the fifth-highest rate (30.4%). They've especially blitzed inexperienced quarterbacks like Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow (24% in the first half before Burrow blew them out; he's great against man coverage). Fields is one of Fantasy's future superstars but his upside is low to begin with and the aggressive Ravens pass rush isn't a good Fantasy fit.
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Kmet's 23% target share over his last three games is super. But Kmet's consistently struggled with man-coverage defenses all season, complete with a 56% catch rate and 6.4 yards per catch against that coverage compared to a 68% rate and 11.0 yards per grab against zone schemes. He's really not a natural separator from most defenders, and until that changes it'll keep him from being a dominant playmaker. There's one more issue: Kmet has two end-zone targets all year. Jimmy Graham had two in Week 9! Jesper Horsted had two in October! You don't even know who Jesper Horsted is! And sadly, it feels like Fields doesn't know who Kmet is when they're 10 yards or closer to the goal line as Kmet has one target this year when the Bears are down there.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him
Projections powered by
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Pro Football Focus counted Hockenson as a pass blocker on four plays last week but it looked more like double that when reviewing his game. It made sense - the Lions opted to keep him in as a blocker to keep Jared Goff clean. Did it help? Not really, no. Goff wasn't good, but he could have been better had he located the few times when Hockenson was wide open, including on a play very late in regulation that just might have set up a game-winning field goal. We're left to wonder if the Lions will continue to prioritize blocking for Hockenson against the Browns and their strong pass rush. Then again, this Cleveland squad had Hunter Henry dunk on them twice last week and Pat Freiermuth scored one three games ago. They play a ton of zone coverage, which helps Goff's accuracy (69% completion rate against that scheme). Your hope with Hockenson is that he's rediscovered by Goff and racks his way to 10-plus PPR points like he's done in three of his past four.
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Sneaky Sleeper
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I was all set to make the case for Landry as a start this week -- the Browns are playing the Lions! -- but Landry's comments about Mayfield's health have scared me off. Cleveland.com listed Mayfield's injuries as a torn labrum, a fractured bone in his left shoulder, a sore foot and a knee contusion. As such, Mayfield ranks 22nd in completion rate (65.4%) and 20th in pass attempts 10-plus yards downfield but it's with the context that he's thrown 246 passes over basically eight-and-a-half games. Where Landry's appeal lies is in the matchup. Last week the Lions allowed Mason Rudolph to complete 19 passes nine air yards or closer to the line of scrimmage. Of course, they didn't go very far, but the reception totals for primary slot guy Ray-Ray McCloud were high. Maybe Landry can rack up seven-plus receptions and save the day in PPR formats.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him in PPR
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Arnold is quickly becoming a weekly fixture in this space as well as a weekly fixture in the Jaguars offense. In his last five games with the Jaguars, Arnold has 37 targets (seven-plus targets in four games), a team-high 286 yards (60-plus yards in four games), a 67.6% catch rate ... and a minuscule 6.0 average target depth and zero touchdowns. He's basically doing a lot of what we thought Laviska Shenault would be doing, particularly lining up in the slot on 50.5% of his snaps since Week 5. The country-crossing 49ers have not only allowed a score to a tight end in three of their past four games but also at least 9.5 half-PPR points. Aside from allowing a 76% catch rate to slot receivers and 72.3% catch rate to tight ends (figure Arnold is a blend of both), they've otherwise been solid beyond touchdowns. But it's those catches we're expecting from Arnold to help us in PPR, and they should be there.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Bust Candidate
Projections powered by
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In their last seven games, the Packers have allowed four scores and only three 90-plus yard games to receivers. Only high-volume wideouts like Diontae Johnson, Ja'Marr Chase and Terry McLaurin found their way to statistical success. Meanwhile, poor Thielen has 12 or fewer PPR points in four of his past six games even though he remains a key part of the Vikings offense. He tends to see a higher percentage of targets against man coverage, and he averages nearly 5.0 more yards per catch against man than zone. He also has morphed into a touchdown-reliant receiver, and the Packers have morphed into a dominant red-zone defensive unit complete with only four touchdowns allowed from inside the 20 in their last four games -- and none to a receiver. Thielen is at best a low-end No. 2 wideout, even in PPR.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sneaky Sleeper
Projections powered by
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A couple of assumptions going into this game: The Dolphins will continue their relentless pass rush against Joe Flacco, and Flacco will chuck it downfield far more than dink and dunk. Flacco is old and slow and was terrible when pressured with the Jets last year. It only makes sense for Miami to keep that firing. And last year, Flacco targeted wide receivers on 73% of his throws (18% to running backs, 9% to tight ends). That's been a consistent tendency to his game, and it just so happens that last week he looked Moore's way twice for 40 yards and a red-zone catch-and-run touchdown. Moore has played incredible football over his past three games, garnering an 80% catch rate and 12.2 yards per catch with an impressive 3.94 yards after catch per reception and five plays of 16-plus yards. Corey Davis might not be so bad, but Moore should be in a safe place to help Fantasy managers, even if his playing time hasn't crossed over to 70% of the snaps yet.
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Start Him
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Among qualifying running backs, Gaskin ranks fourth-worst in yards per carry (3.4) and dead last in rush yards after contact per attempt (2.07) with a paltry 10% rate in avoiding tackles, yet he's been gifted 15-plus touches in four straight games with no change in sight (backup running back Salvon Ahmed is even more inefficient). It pains me to recommend such a frustrating player, but Gaskin has the best possible matchup any running back could have against the Jets and their worst-ranked run defense in Fantasy points allowed to rushers. Gaskin turned 20 carries and six catches in Week 9 against the Texans into 57 total yards (yes, really) and a touchdown. It's not much, but it should be close to what he does on Sunday against the Jets' woeful run-stopping unit. Think of him as the last decent Fantasy option who has 15-touch potential.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him
Projections powered by
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I mentioned last week how the Eagles would have to eventually start passing again and they did, finishing their first half at Denver with a 50-50 pass-run split. Then they ran a ton in the second half to polish off a victory. Running figures to be a tougher task this week as the Saints are tops in the NFL in yards per carry allowed to running backs (2.8). Meanwhile, they've allowed 20-plus Fantasy points to each of the last three passers they've seen (with the last two running for a touchdown). Hurts has completed over 64% of his throws in each of his past three games, something he's never done before. He appears to be heading in the right direction as a passer. It would be better if Dallas Goedert was cleared to play, but even if he's not, Hurts is a trustworthy top-10 Fantasy quarterback.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him
Projections powered by
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With 20-plus Fantasy points in three of his past four starts, and with a phenomenal home matchup against the Texans coming off their bye, Tannehill is about as safe as he's going to get. Only three quarterbacks -- Baker Mayfield, Mac Jones and Jacoby Brissett -- failed to notch 20-plus points against the Texans. Tannehill is in a better class and happens to be playing with a substandard run game ... not that that means the Titans will quit trying to run the ball with their misfit rushing crew. But it should mean that Tannehill finds ways to put points on the board without having to hand off 40 times. It's also encouraging that Tannehill has run for a touchdown in each game without Derrick Henry (and four of his past five overall).
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Against the Cover-3 scheme that the Raiders prefer to use (and get burned by), Higgins has a 74% catch rate this season with 12.1 yards per catch. Also of note, Higgins has seen a whopping 31.1% target per route run rate against the specific coverage (higher than Ja'Marr Chase). That suggests to me he'll be a primary option for Burrow to work outside the numbers against the Raiders' suspect secondary. Higgins had already seen 29 targets in his past three games with at least 13 PPR points in each. He also saw four end-zone targets in those three, a sign Joe Burrow is trying to get him a touchdown. He's safe even without a touchdown, but it would be amazing if he cashed in against the Raiders, who allowed three touchdowns to wideouts last week. He's a sneaky DFS play for sure.
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Sneaky Sleeper
Projections powered by
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This one's pretty straightforward: The Raiders have allowed at least 10.5 half-PPR points to a tight end in six of their past seven games. Of the six, only one was a top-five caliber Fantasy tight end (Travis Kelce last week), and four of the six had at least six targets. We're talking names like Evan Engram, Jared Cook and Jesper Horsted! You don't even know who Jesper Horsted is! Zone coverages like Las Vegas' have not been a piece of cake for Burrow to slice and dice, nor has Uzomah even scored on the Cover-3 scheme the Raiders lean on. But the bet is on Burrow playing well and the Bengals finding the same loophole every other opponent has exploited.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Flex Starter
Projections powered by
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Taking into account the first half against the Bucs in Week 1 and all of Week 10, Michael Gallup has garnered 11 targets, including one end-zone throw. He managed to convert them into a 7-78-0 stat line, which isn't exactly bombastic but at least it's evidence of serviceable play. Moreover, in those six quarters, Dak Prescott hit Gallup with a nice 17% share, and that was with Amari Cooper on the field. Cooper's absence should turn Gallup into Dallas' top outside receiver. Unfortunately for Gallup, the matchup against the Chiefs isn't nearly as dreamy as it was several weeks ago. Kansas City has afforded just four touchdowns to wide receivers -- two to outside types like Gallup -- in its past five games. The Chiefs have also been stingy in yards after catch allowed (3.31 per reception to outside receivers, eighth-best), helping them hold back all but two wideouts from gaining more than 75 yards. The opportunity to effectively be the No. 2 receiver in the Cowboys offense puts Gallup squarely in the flex conversation.
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Start Him
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Schultz began the week as a sit, but after Amari Cooper was ruled out of Sunday's game, the tight end's outlook changed dramatically. Now it's expected that Schultz regain his ground as a solid contributor in the Cowboys offense. When the Cowboys were playing without Gallup, Schultz's target share reached as high as 25% from Prescott. I can't figure him to be quite that high against the Chiefs, but he should still see plenty of targets and has a modest shot to score. That brings his Fantasy stock back to life, at least until the Cowboys' top three receivers are healthy again.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Bust Candidate
Projections powered by
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There are reasons for concern after last week for Wilson. One, Wilson was pressured on 39.6% of his dropbacks; for the season the Seahawks allow the third-highest pressure rate at 28.4%. Arizona pressures offenses at the eighth-lowest rate (28.8%) and also doesn't blitz very often (22.4%), so perhaps there's a semblance of hope there. Two, by my count Wilson was off-target on eight of his 40 throws (20%) including a completion over the middle for D.K. Metcalf that would have been a big play had Wilson hit him in stride. Maybe he was rusty, maybe his finger was an issue. Three, the Seattle offense was a lot of the quick-pass game we actually anticipated when the season started along with a handful of deep tries. That meant high-percentage, but short, throws. Lastly, Wilson's 40 pass attempts were a season-high and totally not indicative of what the Seahawks want to do offensively. There's a fear that the matchup against the Cardinals could be a low-scoring, slow-paced snoozer that keeps Wilson from having a good Fantasy game, something he's done in half of his six games this season, way down from 2020. Arizona has held all but three quarterbacks to 19 or fewer Fantasy points this year and has kept Wilson to 23 Fantasy points or fewer in each of his past four games against them in Seattle.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Williams can't blame his four-game skid on being hurt, but we can blame it on him being mistake-prone. After garnering three targets inside of 15 yards last week, Williams dropped a would-be touchdown from 8 yards out and had another target from the 6-yard line that went only 5 yards. No doubt, the Chargers are trying to get Williams into the end zone, but they're inconsistent about using him as a downfield weapon (no deep targets last week, one the week before). Luckily for the Chargers, there's a shot they take on the Steelers without defensive backs Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joe Haden along with pass rusher T.J. Watt. That combined with the Steelers' zone-coverage nature should make things easy for Justin Herbert, and Williams himself has a better track record against the softer coverage including a 12% improvement in catch rate and a near 4.0-yard advantage in yards after the catch per reception.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Flex Starter
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Over the four games Golladay actually has played 35 snaps, he had at least 10 PPR points in three of them and averaged 6.5 targets per game. If Sterling Shepard remains sidelined, Golladay should have a good shot to exceed that target volume and be the runaway leader in targets in a matchup they should find themselves playing behind in. I'm not sure that's a convincing argument considering Golladay's quarterback, but volume never hurts things. Neither does a depleted Buccaneers secondary that got picked on by Washington last week. In the event Tampa gets both Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting back, that advantage won't be as strong for Golladay, but it shouldn't deter Daniel Jones from throwing at him.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Bust Candidate
Projections powered by
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Sit Him
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