We got back into the proverbial win column last week, as we won the majority of our top five picks and scored nine total wins as opposed to six losses. Then again, who really had Colt McCoy and the New York Giants upsetting the Seattle Seahawks? Week 13 was wildly entertaining, as the Washington Football Team handed the Pittsburgh Steelers their first loss of the season, the Las Vegas Raiders defeated the New York Jets on what was really the final play of the game and the New England Patriots pitched a 45-0 shutout against the Los Angeles Chargers. It was certainly one of the more fun weeks we have had this season, and I'm expecting Week 14 to be dramatic as well.
Below I will give you my top five picks of Week 14, followed by the rest of the bunch. Let's jump in.
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Top five picks record: 28-36-1
Overall ATS record: 96-89-5
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
After falling to the Indianapolis Colts a couple of weeks ago, the Packers have strung together two straight double-digit victories. I would like this line more if it was at Packers 6.5, but I think I'm still going to take Green Bay to cover. The Packers defeated the Lions by 21 points in Week 2 when they were just seven-point favorites, as Aaron Jones went off for 236 total yards and three touchdowns. Aaron Rodgers is 10-5 against the spread against Matthew Stafford, and he is making a case for MVP this season.
If you're looking for a key stat to convince you to take the Packers this week, here it is: Green Bay is 6-1 against the spread and 7-0 straight up vs. teams who are below .500, and they have won those games by an average of 14.4 points. Congratulations to the Lions for taking down a divisional rival in the Chicago Bears last week in their first game without Matt Patricia, but I don't think they are going to give the Packers that close of a game.
Projected score: Packers 35-20
The pick: Packers -7.5
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Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Chargers hit rock bottom this past Sunday, as they fell to the Patriots, 45-0. Apart from it being the Chargers' worst loss of the season and worst shutout loss in franchise history, it came against an offense that is the 10th-worst scoring team in the league. In fact, this loss made NFL history, as the 45-0 result was the largest road shutout win in NFL history by a team that entered the game with a losing record. The Chargers are now 0-6 against the spread since starting 5-1 this season. That's the longest active losing streak in the NFL. Additionally, they have allowed 27-plus points in nine straight games, which is tied for the longest streak in the Super Bowl era. The Falcons aren't a powerhouse, but they certainly aren't a mess like the Chargers appear to be.
Projected score: Falcons 27-21
The pick: Falcons -2.5
Washington at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
I'm not going to lie, I wasn't buying the Washington Football Team hype. I thought they would cover against the Steelers since Ben Roethlisberger and Co. hadn't been playing well, but I definitely did not expect Washington to win straight up. You know what was the most impressive part of Washington's win? They pulled it off without their two best weapons in Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin. Gibson left the game early with a toe injury while McLaurin caught just two passes for 14 yards. The offense virtually went through tight end Logan Thomas and then training camp legend Cam Sims.
This is somewhat of a revenge game, as Washington quarterback Alex Smith was drafted No. 1 overall by the 49ers back in 2005, and then was replaced by Colin Kaepernick. Since San Francisco moved on from Smith following the 2012 season, Smith has won 66 percent and covered 60 percent of his starts. After what Josh Allen did against the 49ers earlier this week, I have faith Smith can have another solid outing. I am a bit worried about Gibson's availability, but I don't expect San Francisco to find too much success on the ground against this stout defensive line.
Projected score: Washington 24-23
The pick: Washington +3
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Monday night was horrific for the Steelers and fantastic for the Bills. The Steelers lost their first game of the season, while the Bills took down the 49ers in an impressive fashion, 34-24. Allen had what was probably his best game of the season, as he completed 32 of 40 passes for 375 yards and four touchdowns. Buffalo's stock is rising, while Pittsburgh's is falling. Still, does what happened on Monday justify a five-point swing in favor of the Bills? I get that the Steelers haven't been playing well, but they get James Conner back this week and maybe they just needed to get that first loss out of the way. I refuse to think the 11-1 Steelers are frauds like so many do.
Projected score: Steelers 30-28
The pick: Steelers +2.5
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Browns' performance against the Tennessee Titans last Sunday was awesome. They jumped out to a 38-7 lead as Baker Mayfield threw four touchdowns just in the first half. As for the Ravens, they got back on track with a 34-17 win over the Dallas cowboys, and Lamar Jackson scored three total touchdowns. I understand a lot has happened since Week 1, but the Ravens blew out the Browns by 32 points in the season opener. Jackson may not be the best passing quarterback in the NFL, but he didn't have any trouble against Cleveland's secondary earlier this year, as he completed 80 percent of his passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns. Bottom line, I think the Ravens are motivated to beat the team that has surpassed them in the AFC North standings, and I like this spread as well. Looking at Baltimore's schedule, I think the Ravens can win all four of their remaining games.
Projected score: Ravens 31-27
The pick: Ravens -1
Other Week 14 picks
Rams (-5) 27-21 over Patriots
Panthers over Broncos (OFF)
Cardinals (-2) 24-20 over Giants
Chiefs (-7) 31-23 over Dolphins
Buccaneers 31-28 over Vikings (+6.5)
Cowboys (-3.5) 28-21 over Bengals
Titans 28-23 over Jaguars (+7.5)
Texans (-1) 30-27 over Bears
Seahawks 35-24 over Jets (+13.5)
Raiders (+3) 27-26 over Colts
Saints 30-24 over Eagles (+7)
