Christmas came a little early when it comes to my NFL weekly picks.
After two "pretty good" weeks, I was able to return to form in Week 14, successfully hitting on 13 of my 16 game predictions. The 49ers rewarded my faith in them by winning a shootout in New Orleans, while the Ravens, Steelers, Falcons, and Chiefs also helped me record one of my finest weeks of the season. Conversely, the Cowboys, Texans, and Seahawks prevented me from my first perfect week.
This week presents another opportunity to strive for perfection. Will I rise to the occasion, or will three (or more) teams deprive me of perfect, again? Let's find out together.
Ready or not, here are my NFL Week 14 picks and predictions.
Pete Prisco and R.J. White joined Will Brinson on the Pick Six Podcast to make picks for every game and give out their best bets for Week 15. Give it a listen below and be sure to subscribe on your favorite podcast platform:
New York (5-8) at Baltimore (11-2)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Fox, fuboTV, try for free)
Point spread: Ravens -15
Despite winning four of their last five games, the Jets are massive underdogs on the road on "Thursday Night Football". While New York's second-ranked run defense could create some issues on a short week for Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram and the Ravens' rushing attack, Baltimore should be able to overcome any temporary setbacks while handing the Jets their ninth loss of the season. Look for Jackson and the Ravens to specifically have success on third down, as Baltimore's second-ranked third-down offense should take advantage of New York's 23rd ranked third-down defense.
One thing to keep an eye on this week is the health of Jackson, who is currently day-to-day after sustaining a groin injury in Sunday's win over the Bills. Jets will get the back-door cover in this one.
The pick: Ravens 26, Jets 12
Tampa Bay (6-7) at Detriot (3-9-1)
1 p.m. ET (Fox, fuboTV, try for free)
Point spread: Buccaneers -4
One of the most underrated coaching performances this season has been the job Bruce Arians has done during his first season in Tampa Bay. Arians and the Buccaneers' recent run of success will continue in the Motor City, as Jameis Winston should have a big day against Detriot's 23rd ranked run defense.
The pick: Buccaneers 31, Lions 26
Philadelphia (6-7) at Washington (3-10)
1 p.m. ET (Fox, fuboTV, try for free)
Point spread: Eagles -5.5
The Eagles, led by a sterling second-half performance by quarterback Carson Wentz, kept their playoff hopes alive by virtue of Monday night's comeback victory over the Giants. While the Redskins have played better as of late, losing Derrius Guice for this game makes this one an easy pick -- but not so much against the spread.
The pick: Eagles 19, Redskins 14
Chicago (7-6) at Green Bay (10-3)
1 p.m. ET (Fox, fuboTV, try for free)
Point spread: Packers -4.5
After taking the favored team up until this point in my weekly picks, I'll put some faith in the Bears and quarterback Mitch Trubisky winning their fourth straight game while keeping their playoff hopes alive. Trubisky -- who endured a rough start to the season -- has been one of the main reasons for Chicago's winning streak, as he has gained a strong rapport with Allen Robinson, who caught two touchdowns in last Thursday's win over the Cowboys. The Bears' defense, with their offense finally giving them some support, will make the necessary stops against Aaron Rogers and company.
The Pick: Bears 23, Packers 20
New England (10-3) at Cincinnati (1-12)
1 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
Point spread: Patriots -9.5
No, I don't have the guts to pick the Bengals at home, even though Cincinnati has looked decent of late and the Patriots have struggled on the offensive side of the ball. While New England's offense may continue to struggle in the Queen City (particularly in the red zone, as Cincinnati has the league's third-best red zone defense), I think the Patriots' defense will lead the way to victory.
The Pick: Patriots 22, Bengals 10
Houston (8-5) at Tennessee (8-5)
1 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
Point spread: Titans -3
This is the first of two matchups between these AFC South rivals in the final three weeks of this season. I'll take the Titans in Round 1 on the strength of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who is 6-1 as a starter during his first season in Nashville. Titans running back Derrick Henry, who has rushed for 1,243 yards and 13 touchdowns this season, should have another good outing against a middle of the pack Texans run defense.
The pick: Titans 20, Texans 17
Seahawks (10-3) at Carolina (5-8)
4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fuboTV, try for free)
Point spread: Seattle -5.5
After a tough Week 13 loss in Los Angeles, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks -- who now one game behind the 49ers for first place in the NFC South -- will rebound Sunday with a decisive road win over a Panthers team that looked lost in their first game since firing Ron Rivera. The Seahawks will have to soldier on without running back Rashaad Penny, who sustained a torn ACL during Sunday night's loss to the Rams.
The pick: Seahawks 24, Panthers 16
Denver (5-8) at Kansas City (9-4)
1 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
After a 3-8 start, the Broncos have won each of their last two games while receiving strong performances from rookie quarterback Drew Lock. While I do think Lock and the Broncos will score some points at Arrowhead, I don't think it will be enough to top Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who are trying to sew up another AFC West division title. After being skeptical about their defense earlier in the year, I have finally put some faith in the Chiefs' defense after three consecutive solid performances.
The pick: Chiefs 27, Broncos 20
Miami (3-10) at New York Giants (2-11)
1 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
Point spread: Giants -3
Eli Manning had his moments on Monday night, throwing two touchdown passes to Darius Slayton, who finished with five receptions for 154 yards. While Manning's effort wasn't enough to lead the Giants to a win over the Eagles, he will be able to lead the Giants to victory over the Dolphins this Sunday while evening his career regular-season record as an NFL starting quarterback.
The pick: Giants 17, Dolphins 16
Jacksonville (4-9) at Oakland (6-7)
4:05 ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
Point spread: Raiders -6.5
While Jon Gruden's injury-battered team is reeling after three straight losses, I can't see the Raiders losing their final game in Oakland. The Raiders have a definite advantage in the running game, as rookie sensation Josh Jacobs (1,061 yards and seven touchdowns with a 4.9 yards per carry average) should have a big day against Jacksonville's 30th ranked run defense.
As the great Raiders owner Al Davis used to say: "Just win, baby."
The pick: Raiders 30, Jaguars 20
Cleveland (6-7) at Arizona (3-9-1)
4:05 ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
Point spread: Browns -2.5
The Browns will improve to 5-1 in their last six games with a win in the desert against a Cardinals team that continues to find different ways to lose. While I do believe that rookie quarterback Kyler Murray will have his moments after a Myles Garrett-less Cleveland defense, Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb and the rest of Cleveland's offense should have success against an Arizona defense that is 32nd against the pass and 24th against the run.
The pick: Browns 20, Cardinals 17
Minnesota (9-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-8)
4:05 ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
Point spread: Vikings -2.5
I'm not going to allow myself to get reeled in by the Chargers' dominant performance last Sunday against the toothless Jaguars, a win that saw Phillip Rivers and company rack up 45 points and 525 yards of total offense. In what has been a theme in this week's picks, I'm going to continue to play it safe and pick the favorite in this matchup. The Chargers' lack of offensive success in the red zone (they're 25th in the league in that department) and their defensive issues on third down (they're 24th in that category) are two reasons why I'm going with the Vikings, who are trying to keep pace with the Packers in the NFC East division race. Like most of the Chargers' games this season, this one is going to be a dandy.
The pick: Vikings 28, Chargers 23
Atlanta at San Francisco (11-2)
4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fuboTV, try for free)
Point spread: 49ers -11
I expect the 49ers' defense, after allowing 46 points last week in New Orleans, to come back with a strong effort at home this Sunday against a Falcons' offense that put up 40 points in last Sunday's win over the Panthers. Expect a big game from Jimmy Garoppolo, who appears to be coming into his own after a midseason "slump".
The pick: 49ers 41, Falcons 24
Los Angeles Rams (8-5) at Dallas (6-7)
4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fuboTV, try for free)
After getting burned once again by the Cowboys last week, I'm not taking them again this week. While the Cowboys will play with an appropriate level of desperation, so too will the Rams, who need to keep winning to stay alive in the NFC playoff picture. While I'm expecting to see another solid game out of quarterback Jared Goff, I think the Rams' defense -- after going through their own midseason slump before rebounding in recent weeks in wins over the Cardinals and Seahawks -- will do enough to contain Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and the rest of the Cowboys' offense.
The pick: Rams 30, Cowboys 17
Buffalo (9-4) at Pittsburgh (8-5)
8:20 p.m. (NBC)
Point spread: Steelers -2
After facing mobile quarterbacks Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray earlier this season, Pittsburgh's defense should be well equipped to stop Kyle Allen, who leads the Bills with eight rushing touchdowns. And in a game between two limited offenses and two dominant defenses, special teams may come into play. If that does end up being the case, the Steelers have a decided edge in kicker Chris Boswell, who has made a career-high 92.9 percent of his field goals this season while also making all 25 of his point-after attempts. Add in Pittsburgh's success in December and on prime time under head coach Mike Tomlin, that's enough for me to ride with the Steelers -- by the slimmest of margins -- in a battle between the AFC's last two playoff teams.
The pick: Steelers 19, Bills 17
Indianapolis (6-7) at New Orleans (10-3)
8:15 p.m. EST (ESPN)
Point spread: Saints -9
Like the Raiders, injuries have also sucker-punched the Colts after a promising start. The Colts won't be able to stop the bleeding in New Orleans, where the Saints will be motivated to avenge last week's two-point loss. Expect Drew Brees and the Saints' offense to have a strong day against a Colts' defense that is 22nd in the NFL in passing yards allowed and 21st in third-down efficiency.
The pick: Saints 31, Colts 23
