Fornelli 50 rankings: Ohio State doesn't fall very far after loss

Ranking the best teams in the country based on nothing but their performances in 2016

If you came here hoping to see Ohio State taking a tumble in the Fornelli 50, prepare to be disappointed.

While the loss certainly drops the Buckeyes in our rankings, they don't fall very far. In fact, nine of last week's top 10 teams are still in the top 10. The team that was No. 10 -- Western Michigan -- is the only team that lost its spot, and it fell to No. 11.

This isn't much of a surprise because, as the season goes along, and we get more data to work with, teams aren't going to be making major moves for the most part. At least not for wins. A bad loss can still pack a wallop.

Before we get to this week's Fornelli 50, though, here's a quick reminder on how this all works.

1. My opinion has absolutely nothing to do with the rankings. They are based on a mathematical formula of my creation. So keep this in mind before you call me an idiot, which I know you will.

2. There is true equality to start. The math doesn't play favorites. Before the season begins, defending national champion Alabama is just as good as our defending Bottom 25 champion Central Florida. The only factor that matters in the rankings is how you've performed on the field in 2016.

3. Wins and losses mean more than anything. I have a lot of different statistics involved, and I factor in strength of schedule, but at the end of the day whether you won or lost is going to mean more than anything else. Also, just because it's too difficult for me to rank FCS teams as well, my formula doesn't have much respect for FCS schools. If you beat one it won't mean much, and if you lose to one, well, you might show up in The Bottom 25.

4. The formula is in no way predictive. It is based on nothing but what has occurred in the season to this point in time. Just because a team is currently ranked No. 15 does not mean it's better or that it's going to beat a team ranked No. 35. It just means that, to this point, it has been the 15th-best team in the country. Think of it as a meritocracy in its purest form. The math plays no favorites. I put this here every week, but my inbox and Twitter mentions make it pretty clear you don't read it.

5. I won't share the formula. I just don't want to. I'm not a mathematician. I know my formula isn't perfect. I don't think a perfect formula can exist, so I don't share it because I don't care what anybody thinks. So don't ask. Just know that, even if you don't agree with it right now, at the end of the season, it has been startlingly accurate.

Now let's assign some numbers to some teams.

1. Alabama 8-0 (1)

2. Michigan 7-0 (3)

3. Washington 7-0 (4)

4. Louisville 6-1 (5)

5. Ohio State 6-1 (2): It may have lost, but on the whole, I'm not exactly worried for Ohio State because of this loss. This was a Buckeyes team playing a second straight Saturday night prime-time game on the road against a team coming off a bye. That's not easy to do.

Also, aside from special teams, which Ohio State definitely struggled with -- and not just on the blocked field goal that resulted in the decisive touchdown -- the Buckeyes played a lot better than Penn State on the whole. The biggest problem the Buckeyes had was moving the ball against a Penn State defense that played well.

And if there's any concern about this Buckeyes team, that's where it lies.

J.T. Barrett is a good football player. In fact, he's one of the best quarterbacks in the country. There are times when I'm watching Ohio State, however, when I feel like the Buckeyes are putting way too much of the responsibility on Barrett's shoulders. Saturday night was one such occasion.

It reminded me of Ohio State's loss to Michigan State last year, the game that saw Ezekiel Elliott publicly complaining about not getting the ball. Which brings me to Curtis Samuel.

On the season, Samuel has rushed for 527 yards and four touchdowns on only 64 carries. In other words, he's averaging 8.23 yards per carry this season. Samuel caught eight passes for 68 yards Saturday night, so he got his touches, but he only had two carries in the game.

One of which was a 74-yard touchdown run.

I understand that Samuel isn't the kind of back you want to give the ball to 20-to-25 times per game, but he needs to get more touches. Particularly on an Ohio State offense that seems to lack a big-play threat in the passing game this season.

Give Samuel more run, and lighten the load on Barrett. I think you'll be better off because of it.

6. Baylor 6-0 (6)

7. Boise State 7-0 (7)

8. Nebraska 7-0 (8)

9. Clemson 7-0 (9)

10. Auburn 5-2 (17)

11. Western Michigan 8-0 (10)

12. West Virginia 6-0 (13)

13. Florida 5-1 (11)

14. San Diego State 6-1 (26)

15. LSU 5-2 (27): Is Ed Orgeron the greatest interim coach of all time? He has had that label twice now, at Southern California and now LSU, and in 11 games he's 9-2 in the role. In three seasons as the actual head coach at Ole Miss, he only won 10 games.

That means LSU is one win away from Orgeron matching his win total with the Rebels, and now you have to start giving serious consideration to Orgeron keeping the job after the season. Personally, I've always been a person that doesn't want to fall in love with the interim coach. There are so many times when we see teams play better just because a coach got fired.

It's an emotional result of either being happy that the old coach is gone, or just rallying around one another because The Man fired your coach. The interim coach that gets the benefit of the wins is usually just along for the ride.

But if LSU keeps winning under Orgeron, and in the fashion it has won under him so far? It might be difficult to cut ties with him.

Maybe it seems a bit early to talk like this, but just imagine what will happen if Orgeron and LSU beat Alabama two weeks from now. Let's remember that one of the main reasons Les Miles is no longer at LSU is because he couldn't beat Nick Saban and Alabama.

If Orgeron can?

Hey, the bloom is coming off the rose when it comes to Tom Herman these past few weeks. By the time the music stops playing, Orgeron might be the most attractive candidate left in the room.

16. Troy 6-1 (18)

17. Texas A&M 6-1 (12)

18. Colorado 6-2 (19)

19. Virginia Tech 5-2 (25)

20. Toledo 6-1 (22)

21. Wisconsin 5-2 (20)

22. Washington State 5-2 (23)

23. Utah 7-1 (30)

24. South Florida 6-2 (16)

25. Houston 6-2 (15): Speaking of Tom Herman, if you were surprised by Houston's loss to SMU this weekend, well, you weren't alone. Nobody expected Houston to lose to SMU. I know I didn't. I did expect the game to be a lot closer than anyone else, however, because I've been paying attention to Houston the past few weeks.

The Cougars have lost two of their past three games now, but the truth is they're a play away from having lost three straight, as they were lucky to escape with a 38-31 win against Tulsa two weeks ago.

Here's the truth about Houston. It's a very talented team, but Greg Ward Jr. is the engine of this team. At the beginning of the season, Ward was 100 percent healthy, and Houston opened the year with a huge win over Oklahoma. Ward hasn't been 100 percent since then, though, which isn't exactly a surprise given his slight frame and how often he takes hits.

This wasn't a problem against teams like Lamar, Cincinnati, Texas State and UConn because Houston is just so much better than those teams are. It has been a problem the past three weeks as the level of competition has taken a step up.

I don't think it will do much to hurt Tom Herman's stock on the coaching market this winter, but I still think there's another loss in Houston's future, and I don't just mean the Louisville game.

26. Oklahoma 5-2 (28)

27. North Carolina 6-2 (35)

28. Penn State 5-2 (37)

29. Memphis 5-2 (14)

30. Appalachian State 5-2 (38)

31. USC 4-3 (34): Seeing as how I've already written about the possibility of an interim coach keeping his job at a major college football program, it only seems fitting to write about a team who let that interim coach go only to keep another interim coach on board a few years later, doesn't it?

I was very much against the Trojans keeping Clay Helton around rather than looking for a new coach last winter, as it just felt like Pat Haden -- who is no longer at USC -- just chose the path of least resistance in keeping Helton. The Trojans 5-4 down the stretch under Helton last season, and they're off to a 4-3 start this year.

A 9-7 record through his first 16 games couldn't have been what the Trojans were looking for in their next coach.

That being said, I just have a strange feeling about the Trojans right now. They're sitting at 3-2 in conference play, behind both Colorado and Utah (4-1). The Trojans lost to Utah by four points in Salt Lake City earlier this season, and beat Colorado by four points in Los Angeles, so it has its two toughest division games out of the way already.

Looking at the rest of the schedule, outside of a road trip to Washington, I don't see a game this Trojans team shouldn't win. So we're talking about a team that is 3-2 now but could easily finish at 6-3 in Pac-12 play, a record that might be good enough to win the Pac-12 South.

I've become a Colorado fanboy just like so many others this year, but I'm not ready to put it on an unbeatable level. Utah is a good team, but it's a one-dimensional team in my eyes, and it has a few difficult games remaining.

I'm not saying USC is going to win the division, but if it does, it won't be any more of a surprise than Colorado and Utah currently being the favorites.

32. Oklahoma State 5-2 (45)

33. Maryland 5-2 (44)

34. Navy 5-1 (43)

35. Tennessee 5-2 (32)

36. Minnesota 5-2 (42)

37. Iowa 5-3 (24)

38. Florida State 5-2 (36)

39. Middle Tennessee 5-2 (46)

40. Miami 4-3 (21)

41. Temple 5-3 (Not ranked)

42. Tulsa 5-2 (NR): In last week's Monday After, I wrote about Purdue's job opening, and how if the Boilermakers really want to become a factor in the Big Ten once again, they need to think outside the box.

Well, Purdue, Tulsa's Philip Montgomery is outside that box.

Montgomery spent years as an assistant under Art Briles -- even spending three seasons with Briles at Stephenville High School in Texas -- before getting the job at Tulsa, and in his second season with the Hurricane, the improvement he has made to the team is already making itself evident.

And for any team that's looking for a new coach this winter, one that could bring some offense to town and put points on the board and butts in the seats, Montgomery is a name any athletic director should consider.

I may have mentioned Purdue, but there are plenty of schools that would be wise to make a phone call.

43. Louisiana Tech 5-3 (NR)

44. Pitt 5-2 (41)

45. Western Kentucky 5-3 (NR)

46. TCU 4-3 (29)

47. California 4-3 (NR)

48. Ohio 5-3 (NR)

49. Wake Forest 5-2 (49)

50. Army 4-3 (31)

No Longer Ranked: NC State, Air Force, Arkansas, Texas, Central Michigan, BYU