Most leagues are kicking off the Fantasy playoffs this week. If you're reading this, then you've either made it there or have a great shot at being there next week. This is a good time to go over your whole roster and make sure you know why everyone is there. Of course there's no bad reason to keep a good player you might start, but anyone you have who you're not confident in starting probably is a candidate to get cut.
Could you add a second quarterback or a second DST? If you're streaming those positions, it's a great idea to stay at least one week ahead by finding the matchups you love in Week 15. Also, check your Week 14 opponent's lineup and see if they're thin at a position -- if he or she is, you could stash a player/DST you wouldn't want them using on your bench. Anything to bring home a win this week -- and be in a position of strength next week.
More Week 14: Start 'Em & Hit 'Em | PPR Cheat Sheet | Non-PPR Cheat Sheet | Starts & Sits, Sleepers & Busts | Game Previews | Matchup Notes | QB Preview | RB Preview | WR Preview | TE Preview | Week 13 Winners | Losers | Believe It Or Not
All lines from William Hill Sportsbook.
The line wants us to believe: The Bucs three losses in their past four don't matter. At first glance, this seemed like a lot of points to lay with the Bucs. Kirk Cousins and the Vikings have averaged 27.3 points per game in their past six, five of them wins. But much of those were against bad defense, and the hunch here is that Tampa Bay's unit will be focused after a bye and a rough stretch. I expect the Tampa Bay defense to play fairly well, leaving the offense to have a field day against Minnesota's shaky defense. The Bucs side, which seems a little strange, is the right side.
It's scarier to roll with Cousins on the road against an aggressive defense like this one, but the Buccaneers have let up a minimum of 20 Fantasy points to six straight quarterbacks (including Daniel Jones, Derek Carr and Jared Goff). That'll suit Cousins nicely as he's managed at least 21 Fantasy points in five straight, including a tough road game at Chicago four weeks back. There are two more layers to consider: The matchup is actually tougher for Dalvin Cook than it is for Cousins, and the Buccaneers offense should have no problem matching the 27.4 points per game that the Vikings are allowing this season. That should push Cousins to have a higher-than-normal pass volume game script, a critical factor in his recent Fantasy success.
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The line wants us to believe: The Giants got lucky last week. Oh yeah? What about the week before? Or the two weeks before that? New York's won four straight and aren't getting any home respect at all. That makes me actually think this is a sucker line designed to get people to take the Giants! But guess what? Arizona's defense hasn't played so great, and its offense has taken a step back ever since Kyler Murray hurt his shoulder. I'm a believer in the Giants and I think they'll win, so I guess I'm either caught in a trap or outsmarting the smart oddsmakers.
Murray has clearly been affected by his shoulder injury. In his past three games he's averaged a 63.5% completion rate, 5.32 yards per attempt and five rushes per game for 4.0 yards per. In his first nine his completion rate was 68.2%, his yards per attempt nestled at 7.64, and he averaged about 10 carries per game at nearly 7.0 yards per. There's more: Murray's bad-ball rate has ballooned to 22% of his throws in his past three (27% in his past two) versus 14% in his first nine games. Now he'll face a Giants defense that's yielded just 20-plus Fantasy points to three passers all season (only five have 17-plus). It'll take some guts to bench Murray, but he's clearly not producing like he did earlier in the season and will be in for a tough matchup on the road. Guys like Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill and whoever plays for the Saints are safer starts.
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The line wants us to believe: The Fish won't get squished. It definitely feels trappy to take the Chiefs giving just a touchdown. Make no mistake, Miami is a good team. I think they'll give the Chiefs some trouble. They've only lost two games by eight or more, including one in Week 1 against the Patriots. The Chiefs haven't won a game by eight or more since Week 8 against the Jets. Frankly, I don't think the oddsmakers would get much action on the Dolphins if they gave them less than seven points. But I want those points -- in Brian Flores and Tua Tagovailoa I trust to cover, but not win.
The Chiefs have gone full Mahomes. Over the past five weeks, the Chiefs rank in the bottom-five in running back touches per game (19.8) and running back carries per game (15.8). Only once in those games has a Kansas City running back managed 15 touches (Edwards-Helaire, Week 11 at Las Vegas). Also happening: The Chiefs aren't consolidating their running backs at all. Le'Veon Bell and Darrel Williams have floated around a 26% snap rate each when Edwards-Helaire has been healthy, giving the rookie the rest of the playing time. It's the three-headed monster CEH detractors feared back when the season started. He's not even the preferred option at the goal line, playing just seven snaps on goal-to-go downs of 3 yards or closer in his past five with one carry converted for a score. Until Edwards-Helaire plays more (and plays better), Fantasy managers shouldn't trust him. That goes double this week as the Dolphins have yielded just two rushing touchdowns to running backs in their past seven games with no 100-yard rush games allowed on the year.
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Parker's doing the best he can with Tua Tagovailoa as his quarterback, but the results haven't been very good. Tagovailoa has made Parker his top target with 28 throws his way, but only 57.1% of them have been caught, and for just 9.4 yards per catch. In fact, Parker has an average target depth of 5.0 yards in the games Tagovailoa has played in. That's gross! Tagovailoa played a lot better in the second half last week against the Bengals and continued to show an affinity for Parker on short end-zone throws (three targets, no receptions). Fantasy managers will need that connection to come through if Parker's going to have a great day. Kansas City ranks third in fewest Fantasy points to receivers but has let up three touchdowns inside the 10 to wideouts in its past five quarters. Think of Parker as a touchdown-or-bust receiver who can't even be counted on for more than six receptions with Tagovailoa.
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The line wants us to believe: Jacksonville isn't as competitive as their past two games suggest. My inclination is that the oddsmakers know they won't get any action on Jacksonville unless they give them at least 7.5 points. Meanwhile, the Titans have just two blowout wins with an 8-4 straight-up record. It's reckless to take Tennessee laying that many points given their track record and poor defense.
If A.J. Brown and Corey Davis are must-starts, then their quarterback must be too. Tannehill dazzled last week while playing from behind against the Browns, notching his ninth game this season with 20-plus Fantasy points (and fourth with 30-plus). He'll face another awful secondary this week as the Jaguars have generously provided a minimum of 20 Fantasy points to six straight quarterbacks (22-plus in five of the six). The Titans' shaky defense should afford some numbers to the Jaguars offense too, likely putting Tannehill in a situation where he will need to throw more than hand off. He's among the safest Fantasy quarterbacks this week.
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The line wants us to believe: The Cowboys are a little less terrible than the Bengals. Dallas will play its second straight road game in a five-day span. There's no way they'll be in a good place to blow out Cincinnati. So in a game with two sloppy teams, I'll just settle for taking the points.
Schultz has wrangled at least eight PPR points in four of his past five and takes on a Bengals defense that gave up over 100 yards per game (and a 74% catch rate) to tight ends in its past two. Cincy also gave up a red-zone score to man-child Mike Gesicki last week, its first in its past five. Schultz has the best catch rate of any regular target of Andy Dalton (79.2%) and should be a factor in the Cowboys passing game.
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There are massive trust issues with Bernard as a Fantasy starter since his past four games have been colossal duds (3.8 non-PPR/6.8 PPR points per game). But those last four matchups were against the Dolphins, the Giants, Washington and the Steelers, three of which rank in the top-seven of fewest Fantasy points allowed to running backs in the past five weeks (the Giants rank 16th). This week he gets the Cowboys, who have allowed the third-most Fantasy points to running backs in the past five weeks and the most over the past three weeks (five touchdowns, 5.9 yards per carry). And if that's not enough to convince you that they're convincingly terrible, keep in mind that the Cowboys are on the road for their second game on five days' rest. Bernard is in the right place at the right time as a No. 2 Fantasy rusher and a dreamy DFS tournament option.
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The line wants us to believe: Houston is barely better than Chicago. Man, this has sucker line written all over it. Know why the Texans are favored? Because the Bears blew a 10-point lead Anthony Lynn-style last week. Chicago is completely capable of putting up points on a bad Houston defense. The question is whether or not Chicago's defense will bounce back after looking awful against Detroit. It'll be a struggle, but the line is begging you to take the Texans. The oddsmakers do not want you to take the Bears. So take the Bears.
Given the chance to see every-down work for the Texans, Coutee looked like a completely different player from when we last saw him. He thrashed the Colts zone defense with over routes, even finding soft spots and settling in for easy targets from Deshaun Watson. He even should have had a touchdown on a corner-post route but Watson was a little late with the football. Chicago plays zone coverage about two-thirds of the time and had a lackluster pass rush last week, affording a big game to Matthew Stafford and the Lions. If the defense plays like that again, Watson will have a smash-hit game and Coutee should see plenty of targets out of the slot. It helps that the Bears have allowed a pair of touchdowns to receivers in three straight games. Coutee is ranked as a flex, but I wouldn't be the least surprised if he finished as a top-24 receiver in PPR.
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The line wants us to believe: The Broncos might actually be competitive. This is a bad spot for the Broncos, on the road for the second straight week against a rested Panthers team getting its best offensive player back. Losing A.J. Bouye hurts Denver as its secondary is down to backup cornerbacks. All of Carolina's wins have been by five or more points.
Though I wish he had more targets last week, I can't complain about Patrick's two red-zone touchdowns in Week 13. I also can't complain about the 23 targets he had in Weeks 10 through 12 (that's right, we're ignoring the "Kendall Hinton game"). Patrick is pretty clearly the No. 1 option for Drew Lock in Denver's passing game. He should see a rise in targets against a Panthers pass defense that's given up seven touchdowns to receivers in its past four games. Patrick has at least 10 PPR points in his four games with an actual quarterback.
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Samuel's playing time has been steady over his past five games, but it could be on the rise with D.J. Moore sidelined this week. He's already seen a minimum of five targets in seven straight games with 20 targets in his last three. What's especially impressive is his receiving yards: at least 70 in three of his past four. That feels like a number we can safely buy into, especially on the hope of increased playing time. Tack on a good dose of receptions (he's averaged 5.7 per game in those last seven) and he figures to at least work as a flex with PPR appeal.
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The line wants us to believe: The Seahawks will get right in a major way. Yeah, this doesn't feel like a manufactured line at all. The Jets played their hearts out last week and lost a heartbreaker. So of course they need a slew of points on the road against a win-desperate Seattle squad. I'm not sure if 13.5 points is enough -- I fully expect the Seahawks to ravage the Jets and their lowly secondary.
I suppose Crowder is the most reliable Jets player Fantasy managers can roll with. It helps that Denzel Mims won't play, increasing the likelihood that Crowder will see at least seven targets. That minimum has helped Crowder accrue at least 11 PPR points every single time this season, including last week's two-score re-emergence against the Raiders. The Seahawks' pass defense has actually improved over the past four weeks (8.9 yards per catch, no touchdowns allowed to receivers!), so if you're starting Crowder you're hoping for Sam Darnold to lean on him as much as he did earlier in the season.
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The line wants us to believe: The Raiders aren't that much worse than the Colts. I'm not buying that for a second. Las Vegas picked up a miracle win against a Jets team they were losing handily to, while the Colts looked as solid as ever at Houston. I know Indy's on the road for the second straight week, and I know their offensive line has some issues, but their defense should be up to the task of stopping the Raiders' Josh Jacobs-less offense.
Rivers bounced back in a major way last week, beating up on a bad Texans secondary and notching his third straight game with at least 21 Fantasy points. We know he's got a toe injury, we know his left tackle might be a third-stringer, and we know Rivers is capable of a meltdown at any point, but the matchup against the Raiders is too good to ignore. Vegas has allowed 20 points or more to an enemy quarterback in six of its past nine games, including 23 to Sam Darnold in Week 13! It helps that the Raiders' pass rush is missing a couple of key players as well. Rivers shouldn't be viewed as a high-ceiling quarterback, which is why guys like Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford should be started ahead of him, but he's among the top streaming choices you could make and should be better than the other quarterback in this game.
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With touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, Hilton is back on the proverbial Fantasy map. What's changed? For starters, Rivers is finding him again -- the 16 targets Hilton's had in the past two weeks is the most in a two-game span for him or any Colts pass-catcher this season. Hilton also seemed to have really good timing with Rivers last week, stopping at the perfect point on a sideline route for a big gain and being open in space for an over-the-shoulder grab that wound up being a touchdown. Hilton's breakaway speed on that touchdown was also good to see, by the way. The Raiders allowed two passing scores to Jamison Crowder last week and at least one score to a wide receiver in eight of their past nine games (mostly to No. 1 guys). Maybe Hilton is peaking at just the right time.
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What we were hoping for last week was Booker racking up over 15 touches and finding the end zone against the Jets. What did we get? Booker racking up 17 touches for disappointing stats while playing just 42% of the snaps. Truth is, the Raiders offensive line is just different without guard Richie Incognito helping move defenders around. I can't imagine it'll magically improve, even against a Colts defense that's been showing some cracks lately. Even if you toss their Week 12 matchup against the Titans when they didn't have DeForest Buckner on the D-line, Indy's allowed a running back to get 10-plus non-PPR Fantasy points in three straight. Booker will need to score in order to be good for your Fantasy squad.
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The line wants us to believe: So what if Washington beat the undefeated Steelers on Monday? Washington's on the road for a second-straight week, but the Niners are on the road for a fourth straight game since this one will be played in Arizona, not California. Washington's defensive line is great, making the secondary look better than it is on paper. But the 49ers defense is seeing an offense that's a full 180 degrees from what they went up against in Week 13, and I'm guessing Washington will get tired and make more mistakes. It's almost a sucker line for the Football Team. Give me the Arizona 49ers.
Antonio Gibson had been taking some of McKissic's passing-down snaps, but then he suffered a turf toe injury last week and figures to at least miss Week 14. That opened the door for McKissic to play a whopping 74% of the snaps last week, netting him 10 receptions, five carries and 78 total yards (70 receiving). If anything, his involvement in the offense showed that Washington really doesn't want to lean on slug back Peyton Barber unless they're in a clear running down and/or in a short-yardage situation. Before last week we called McKissic a game-script dependent PPR option. I suppose that's still the case this week, but Gibson's absence should cement McKissic into a prominent role and a shot at a good reception total. The Niners have allowed a 79% catch rate and 8.0 yards per catch to opposing running backs on the season.
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When Washington was down two scores last week, Alex Smith's most reliable target was his large, non-explosive tight end who was constantly left open for short-yardage gains. Not until later in the game did he start running -- and connecting -- on downfield routes. There's a fairly realistic chance that without Gibson powering a good rushing presence for Washington that Alex Smith will have to throw a bunch. That in turn should mean nice target volume for Thomas. That alone may make him a top 12 tight end, but that could be as good as it gets for him. San Francisco did yield a touchdown to a tight end last week, but it was just its third score to the position all year. And only one tight end (Mike Gesicki) has exceeded 60 yards against the Niners in 2020. Weird fact: Thomas has five-plus targets in seven games, but under eight PPR points in four of them. Consider other options before going with Thomas.
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Mostert is still a sleek, speedy running back who fits into the 49ers run scheme perfectly. But he's also still seeing less than 50% of the snaps and, as last week proved, a candidate to be stuck around 10 touches per game. Having Jeff Wilson be used as a hammering power back hurts Mostert's upside, but it's the matchup against a legitimately good Washington front seven that really makes me nervous to start Mostert. In its past seven games, Washington has allowed just one rushing touchdown to a running back, holding the position to 3.7 yards per carry. Mostert has come through with 10-plus non-PPR points in four of six games this year, but if he's going to lose touches to Wilson moving forward then he should probably only be used when matchups are better than this.
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The line wants us to believe: Philadelphia's implosion isn't as bad as it seems. How on earth are the Saints only giving 6.5 points? Taysom Hill has looked like a competent quarterback (last week was his best game), and New Orleans' defense has played phenomenally. Rookie Jalen Hurts could make things interesting for the Eagles, or he could be completely exposed by New Orleans' aggressive unit. Taking the Saints seems easy ... too easy. But I'm doing it.
There's too much working against Sanders right now. His playing time has decreased in each of his past four games. His touches have fallen from 19 to 8 to 10 in his past three. Sanders himself admitted this week that he hasn't been sharp in pass catching and pass blocking the past two weeks, and it's cost him playing time. Then there's the Eagles' offensive line, which has been and will be a massive problem, plus rookie Jalen Hurts will make his first NFL start. Oh, also, the Saints' suffocating run defense, which allows the fewest Fantasy points per game to running backs this season, is coming to Philly. There's been talk about the Eagles utilizing their running backs more, but there's no clear indication Sanders will be back in that workhorse role that he was in back when the year began. It might feel dangerous to bench Sanders, but if this were a running back not taken in Round 1, it would be easy. Sanders hasn't played like a Round 1 pick for much of the year.
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The line wants us to believe: One of these teams is good enough to be nearly a field-goal favorite. It figures to be the Falcons, whose defense hung in there as best as it could last week. Los Angeles seems to be suffering from a deteriorating offensive line, a sagging secondary and really bad coaching. It's a trifecta that makes them hard to trust, even as a home underdog. Maybe the oddsmakers knew that and made the line what it is. Still, the Falcons side seems safer.
If Hurst can't get it done this week, he can't be trusted again. That's because the Chargers have allowed a touchdown to a tight end in five of their past six games. Simple as that -- this has been a get-right matchup for the position all season. It should also help Hurst that the Falcons run game is a question mark with Todd Gurley and Ito Smith both banged up. Finally not in a tough matchup, Hurst and his 5.7 targets per game warrant one last ride.
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The line wants us to believe: Nothing's stopping Green Bay. The Lions got really, really lucky to a) score 34 points last week and b) win a game. Their defense is terrible, which should put Aaron Rodgers in a spot to sling four touchdowns, which his implied team total thinks is within reason. It's not too much asking the Packers to win by eight, though I do think the oddsmakers could have gotten away with giving the Lions more points.
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Last week worked out marvelously for the Lions new-found up-tempo passing game because the Bears pass rush was lackluster. The Packers pass rush is statistically better than the Bears, but only by 3.1% in terms of pressure rate. Expect the Lions to keep the fireworks coming, just as they have in pretty much every game they've played against the Packers in the past five years (Stafford has multiple scores in 10 of his past 11 against the Packers, scoring 20-plus Fantasy points seven times). Plus, Philip Rivers and Mitchell Trubisky each found 24 Fantasy points within the Packers' past three games. Jones should also benefit as the Packers' pass defense really hasn't dominated, giving up five scores to receivers over its past five games. Jones himself has at least eight non-PPR/10 PPR Fantasy points in five of his past seven games.
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The line wants us to believe: Josh Allen's great and the Steelers aren't. The line isn't that surprising given how depleted on defense Pittsburgh is. The Bills defensive brain trust is just the kind of group that can devise a blueprint to slow the Steelers down, especially since a scheme just like it beat them on Monday. I really like Buffalo to make a statement win.
