The college football offseason once again saw significant turnover atop FBS programs with 24 programs -- 18% of the FBS (now at 133 teams) -- changing coaches, which means there's a large swath entering honeymoon year with their new schools. Couple that with a number of programs who are in the midst of dealing with conference realignment over the next two seasons, and there are plenty of unknowns entering this year.
The Hot Seat Rankings have long been an accurate predictor in terms of job security. Over the last five years, 30 of the 43 coaches rated 4 or worse in the preseason eventually lost their jobs (70%). That includes seven of eight last season; Syracuse's Dino Babers was the lone coach to survive following a slightly improved 7-6 campaign.
Entering the 2023 season, there are eight seven coaches firmly on the proverbial hot seat (rated 4 or higher) following the Monday night firing of Northwestern's Pat Fitzgerald. However, you can be sure there will be far more than eight job changes as that damn coaching carousel is always spinning no matter the expectations entering a given year.
In addition to the full set of rankings below, we have detailed those seven coaches sitting on the hottest seats ahead of the 2023 campaign. There is also a group "Notable 3s" to keep an eye on throughout the season.
Babers enters 2023 with a 18-30 record since his incredible 10-3 season with the Orange in 2018. Neal Brown is 11-14 after his lone winning mark (6-4 in the COVID-19 shortened 2020 season) at West Virginia. And then there's Jimbo Fisher whose $70 million buyout and national championship (at Florida State) have given him a longer leash at Texas A&M where he has yet to live up to his hefty price tag or lofty expectations. Making a late entry onto the hot seat was Fitzgerald for reasons that extended beyond his 4-20 record over the last two seasons; however, he was dismissed Monday night.
Below you can see where all 133 FBS coaches stand before the season begins. Check out the ratings key first and see where every coach in college football ranks with kickoff scheduled in less than two months.
| Rating | What it means | Coaches |
|---|---|---|
5 | Win or be fired | 3 |
4 | Start improving now | 4 |
3 | Pressure is mounting | 16 |
2 | All good ... for now | 52 |
1 | Safe and secure | 42 |
0 | Untouchable | 15 |
The table below is arranged in alphabetical order by school. Listed is each coach's win-loss record at his current program and the number of years he's led that team prior to 2023. If the coach has seen his rating change from the 2022 season, the old rating is listed in parenthesis. Asterisks (*) note that games won/lost as an interim coach immediately preceding a full-time hiring are included.
2023 Hot Seat Rankings
| Team | Coach | Years | Record | 2023 Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Calhoun | 16 | 121-78 | 1 | |
| Joe Moorhead | 1 | 2-10 | 2 (1) | |
| Nick Saban | 16 | 189-27 | 0 | |
| Shawn Clark | 3 | 26-13* | 1 | |
| Jedd Fisch | 2 | 6-18 | 2 (3) | |
| Kenny Dillingham | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Sam Pittman | 3 | 19-17 | 1 | |
| Butch Jones | 2 | 5-19 | 4 (2) | |
| Jeff Monken | 9 | 64-49 | 1 | |
| Hugh Freeze | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Mike Neu | 7 | 33-48 | 3 | |
| Dave Aranda | 3 | 20-16 | 1 (0) | |
| Andy Avalos | 2 | 17-9 | 2 | |
| Jeff Hafley | 3 | 15-20 | 3 (1) | |
| Scot Loeffler | 4 | 13-29 | 3 | |
| Mo Linguist | 2 | 11-14 | 2 | |
| Kalani Sitake | 7 | 56-34 | 1 | |
| Justin Wilcox | 6 | 30-36 | 3 | |
| Jim McElwain | 4 | 24-21 | 2 (1) | |
| Biff Poggi | -- | 0-0 | 2 | |
| Scott Satterfield | -- | 0-0 | 2 | |
| Dabo Swinney | 14 | 161-39 | 0 | |
| Tim Beck | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Deion Sanders | -- | 0-0 | 0 | |
| Jay Norvell | 1 | 3-9 | 2 (1) | |
| Mike Elko | 1 | 9-4 | 1 (2) | |
| Mike Houston | 4 | 22-24 | 2 | |
| Chris Creighton | 9 | 46-61 | 2 | |
| Mike MacIntyre | 1 | 4-8 | 2 (1) | |
| Billy Napier | 1 | 6-7 | 2 (1) | |
| Tom Herman | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Mike Norvell | 3 | 18-16 | 2 (3) | |
| Jeff Tedford | 1 (4) | 10-4 (36-18) | 1 | |
| Kirby Smart | 7 | 81-15 | 0 | |
| Clay Helton | 1 | 6-7 | 2 (1) | |
| Shawn Elliott | 6 | 34-38 | 2 (1) | |
| Brent Key | -- | 0-0 | 2 | |
| Timmy Chang | 1 | 3-10 | 2 (1) | |
| Dana Holgorsen | 4 | 27-20 | 3 (1) | |
| Bret Bielema | 2 | 13-12 | 1 (2) | |
| Tom Allen | 6 | 30-40* | 5 (2) | |
| Kirk Ferentz | 24 | 186-115 | 2 | |
| Matt Campbell | 7 | 46-42 | 2 (1) | |
| Curt Cignetti | 4 | 8-3 (FBS) | 1 (0) | |
| Rich Rodriguez | 1 | 9-2 (FCS) | 1 (n/a) | |
| Lance Leipold | 2 | 8-17 | 1 | |
| Chris Klieman | 4 | 30-20 | 0 (2) | |
| Kenni Burns | -- | 0-0 | 3 | |
| Mark Stoops | 10 | 66-59 | 2 (1) | |
| Jamey Chadwell | -- | 0-0 | 0 | |
| Michael Desormeaux | 1 | 7-7* | 2 | |
| Sonny Cumbie | 1 | 3-9 | 2 (0) | |
| Jeff Brohm | -- | 0-0 | 0 | |
| Brian Kelly | 1 | 10-4 | 0 | |
| Charles Huff | 2 | 16-10 | 1 | |
| Mike Locksley | 4 | 21-28 | 2 | |
| Ryan Silverfield | 3 | 21-26* | 3 (1) | |
| Mario Cristobal | 1 | 5-7 | 2 (0) | |
| Chuck Martin | 9 | 45-59 | 3 (2) | |
| Jim Harbaugh | 8 | 74-25 | 0 (1) | |
| Mel Tucker | 3 | 18-14 | 3 (0) | |
| Rick Stockstill | 17 | 109-103 | 2 (3) | |
| P.J. Fleck | 6 | 44-27 | 1 | |
| Zach Arnett | -- | 1-0* | 2 | |
| Eliah Drinkwitz | 3 | 17-19 | 3 (2) | |
| Brian Newberry | -- | 0-0 | 3 | |
| Dave Doeren | 10 | 72-54 | 2 (1) | |
| Matt Rhule | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Ken Wilson | 1 | 2-10 | 2 | |
| Danny Gonzales | 3 | 7-24 | 5 (2) | |
| Jerry Kill | 1 | 7-6 | 1 | |
| Mack Brown | 4 (14) | 30-22 (99-68-1) | 1 | |
| Eric Morris | -- | 0-0 | 2 | |
| Thomas Hammock | 4 | 17-27 | 2 (1) | |
| Marcus Freeman | 1 | 9-5* | 2 (1) | |
| Tim Albin | 2 | 13-13 | 1 (2) | |
| Ryan Day | 4 | 48-6* | 2 (0) | |
| Brent Venables | 1 | 6-7 | 3 (1) | |
| Mike Gundy | 18 | 156-75 | 2 (1) | |
| Ricky Rahne | 3 | 9-16 | 2 (1) | |
| Lane Kiffin | 3 | 23-13 | 2 (1) | |
| Dan Lanning | 1 | 10-3 | 1 | |
| Jonathan Smith | 5 | 26-31 | 2 (1) | |
| James Franklin | 9 | 78-36 | 1 | |
| Pat Narduzzi | 8 | 62-41 | 1 | |
| Ryan Walters | -- | 0-0 | 2 | |
| Mike Bloomgren | 5 | 16-39 | 4 (2) | |
| Greg Schiano | 3 (14) | 12-22 (80-89) | 2 | |
| K.C. Keeler | 9 | 85-27 (FCS) | 0 | |
| Brady Hoke | 3 (5) | 23-12 (36-24) | 2 (1) | |
| Brent Brennan | 6 | 27-42 | 1 (2) | |
| Rhett Lashlee | 1 | 7-6 | 2 (1) | |
| Kane Wommack | 2 | 15-10 | 1 | |
| Shane Beamer | 2 | 15-11 | 1 | |
| Will Hall | 2 | 10-15 | 2 (1) | |
| Alex Golesh | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Troy Taylor | -- | 0-0 | 2 | |
| Dino Babers | 7 | 36-49 | 4 | |
| Sonny Dykes | 1 | 13-2 | 0 (1) | |
| Stan Drayton | 1 | 3-9 | 3 | |
| Josh Heupel | 2 | 18-8 | 1 | |
| Steve Sarkisian | 2 | 13-12 | 2 (1) | |
| Jimbo Fisher | 5 | 39-21 | 4 (0) | |
| G.J. Kinne | -- | 0-0 | 2 | |
| Joey McGuire | 1 | 8-5 | 1 | |
| Jason Candle | 8 | 54-32 | 1 (2) | |
| Jon Sumrall | 1 | 12-2 | 1 | |
| Willie Fritz | 7 | 43-45 | 1 (3) | |
| Kevin Wilson | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Trent Dilfer | -- | 0-0 | 2 | |
| Gus Malzahn | 2 | 18-19 | 1 | |
| Chip Kelly | 5 | 27-29 | 2 | |
| Jim Mora Jr. | 1 | 6-7 | 1 (3) | |
| Terry Bowden | 2 | 8-16 | 3 | |
| Don Brown | 1 | 1-11 | 3 (1) | |
| Barry Odom | -- | 0-0 | 2 | |
| Lincoln Riley | 1 | 11-3 | 0 | |
| Dana Dimel | 5 | 17-40 | 3 | |
| Jeff Traylor | 3 | 30-10 | 0 | |
| Kyle Whittingham | 18 | 154-74* | 0 | |
| Blake Anderson | 2 | 17-10 | 1 (0) | |
| Clark Lea | 2 | 7-17 | 2 | |
| Tony Elliott | 1 | 3-7 | 2 (1) | |
| Brent Pry | 1 | 3-8 | 2 | |
| Dave Clawson | 9 | 59-53 | 1 (0) | |
| Kalen DeBoer | 1 | 11-2 | 0 (1) | |
| Jake Dickert | 1 | 10-9* | 2 (1) | |
| Neal Brown | 4 | 22-25 | 5 (2) | |
| Lance Taylor | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Tyson Helton | 4 | 32-21 | 1 | |
| Luke Fickell | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Craig Bohl | 9 | 52-56 | 2 |
