Week 11 Fantasy Start / Sit Tough Decisions
Week 11 is mostly about controversial quarterback rankings. Everything is boiling down to do we think what we've seen the last 2 or 3 weeks is indicative of a player's average or are they outlier (good or bad) performances?
I added another wrinkle to the analysis by using player prop lines to project fantasy points. At this point in the week there are limited lines so not everyone of these players has a complete set of data but this table shows the current situation.
| PLAYER | PROP PROJ | AVERAGE OF PROP LINES IN KEY STATS | ITL/SPLN PROJECTED STATS | FFT CONS RANK |
| Marcus Mariota (22.7) | 15.8 | 1.45 PASSTD | 204 PASSYD | 0.3 TD | | 1.7 PASSTD | 226 PASSYD | 34 RUSHYD | 0.2 TD | | 14 |
| Jordan Love (21.5) | 17.9 | **1.76 PASSTD | 236 PASSYD | 0.23 TD | ** | 1.8 PASSTD | 247 PASSYD | 17 RUSHYD | 0.1 TD | | 18 |
| Matthew Stafford (19.1) | 20.3 | 2.2 PASSTD | 268 PASSYD | 5.3 RUSHYD | 0.05 TD | | 1.7 PASSTD | 235 PASSYD | 2 RUSHYD | 0.0 TD | | 4 |
| Joe Flacco (17.5) | 19.1 | 1.98 PASSTD | 272 PASSYD | 0.05 TD | | 1.5 PASSTD | 244 PASSYD | 3 RUSHYD | 0.1 TD | | 9 |
| Dallas Goedert (11.3) | 11.3 | 4.5 REC | 42 RECYD | 0.43 TD | | 3.6 REC | 39 RECYD | RUSHYD | 0.6 TD | | 11 |
Marcus Mariota (ITL QB7 | FFT QB14): The Commanders were blown out by the Lions because their defense is horrible. Marcus Mariota was actually QB11 last week with 2 passing TDs and a statistically strong 16/22 passing. The model is projecting him for 22+ fantasy points because the RB situation is a bit of a mess in Washington. Mariota's 34 rushing yards (0.2 TDs) adds over 5 fantasy points to his passing production. His player prop lines project 16 fantasy points passing so the oddsmakers see a similar 21+ projection if you add in his rushing. Miami shocked Buffalo and Josh Allen was bad but his final stat line still shows over 300 passing yards, 2 passing TDs and another 31 rushing yards.
Baker Mayfield (ITL QB8 | FFT QB13): I understand why he's a sit candidate. Buffalo's defensive passer rating is under 85 and they are allowing just 170 passing yards per game. But I take their statistics with a grain of salt. Outside of their great performance vs Mahomes and the Chiefs the Bills defense racked up most of their good defensive passing stats against bad/struggling QBs (Tua twice, Bryce Young, Michael Penix, Spencer Rattler, Justin Fields). Lamar and Drake Maye did just fine. I think Baker has earned the right to be classed closer to Lamar and Maye than the other guys.
Jordan Love (ITL QB9 | FFT QB18): He went from top 3 in the MVP after completing 20 straight passes vs the Steelers to the guy who will get the coach fired in two weeks. The sample size on Jordan Love is large enough for me to think he's still a top 10 QB. He's also rushed for 18+ yards in 5 of his last 7 games and one of those games was when he didn't need to run (vs Pittsburgh). The Eagles defense, when click on all cylinders, is probably the best in the league. The Giants have plenty of talent but statistically are still barely above average in key defensive passing metrics. The Giants will likely start Jameis Winston and if Tampa Bay Jameis is there then maybe Love gets some short fields off of turnovers.
Matthew Stafford (ITL QB 18 | FFT QB4): Would I have the guts to sit Stafford after what he's done the last 3 weeks or in 5 of his last 6? Nope. Stafford is on an all-time heater but his one game where he did not put up big numbers was vs Baltimore (181 yards, 1 TD). The Ravens defense still has a lot of Mike Macdonald's system and Seattle's defense is rolling these days. The model is projecting him for 19.1 FPs and his player prop lines project a similar 20.3 fantasy points. A 20.3 FP average would be QB15 based on average for the season.
Joe Flacco (ITL QB 24 | FFT QB 9): Joe Flacco's 470 yards and 4 TDs were awesome, but let's not forget that he had 2 interceptions and a lost fumble that game as well. Pittsburgh's defense is 100% dependent on forcing turnovers. When they do, they look good. When they don't, they get rolled. Both our model and the player prop lines project Flacco for just 17.5 to 19 fantasy points and the Bengals' team total is just 21.5 to 22 points. What I know is these average based projections are probably not going to happen. Flacco and the Bengals will either be way above or way below these numbers based on turnovers.
Dallas Goedert (ITL TE11 | FFT TE4): Our fantasy projection of 11.3 is identical to the odds implied projection of 11.3. The odds like Goedert to have a few more yards on more receptions while our model likes his chances of scoring a TD more than the odds. If he does both (hits the over on receptions / yards AND scores a TD) then, yeah, he's top 4 TE. But I think the recent pattern of primetime matchups between contenders being slugfests could happen again.





















