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CBS Sports Bracketology uses committee selection tendencies and historical seeding logic to project the final seeding for March Madness. If the college basketball season ended today, this is how the model projects the NCAA Tournament to play out.
Our model gives Seattle Seahawks a narrow Super Bowl edge, projecting a 24–19 win driven by advantages through the air and in the trenches. Seattle is projected to outgain New England in passing yards (+26) while also creating more pressure, with a +1.4 sack edge that tilts the defensive matchup.
From a betting perspective, that projected 5-point margin makes Seahawks -4.5 fairly priced with limited value. Where the model really points is the under, as both defenses generate pressure and limit explosive plays.
James Harden will inevitably have a 50 point triple double in his first week with the Cavaliers but we all know how this will end. A 3-19 game in the deciding game of a 7 game series preceded by a 6-18 game with the Cavs up 3-2 in the series.
The Clippers got considerably better with Darius Garland. The Cavaliers got worse with James Harden.
The last 2 seasons the Cavs won 71.7% of the 106 games Garland played (including playoffs). James Harden has been very durable, only really missing games when he is demanding a trade and the Clippers did win 56.9% of his 130 games played vs just going 2-6 without him.
The most impressive thing about Harden is he will make 35% of very difficult shots that the average player would make 15% of the time. But he ends up taking too many super difficult shots which is why he is shooting under 35% from 3pt range. Garland may not be able to make the behind the back dribble 10 times step back three from 30 feet but ultimately if you give him 6 3pt attempts he'll make 2 or 3 percentage points more than Harden will.
| LA CLIPPERS | PROJ WINS | WIN% | PLAYOFF | WIN CONF | CHAMP | REM WIN% |
| w/ Harden | 42.3 | 51.5% | 43.0% | 1.37% | 0.41% | 58.3% |
| w/ Garland | 43.7 | 53.3% | 56.7% | 3.68% | 1.55% | 62.9% |
| Difference | 1.5 | 1.8% | 13.7% | 2.31% | 1.14% | 4.6% |
| CLEVELAND | PROJ WINS | WIN% | PLAYOFF | WIN CONF | CHAMP | REM WIN% |
| w/ Garland | 49.7 | 60.6% | 99.5% | 13.79% | 4.36% | 63.6% |
| w/ Harden | 48.0 | 58.5% | 97.7% | 6.39% | 1.18% | 58.2% |
| Difference | -1.7 | -2.1% | -1.8% | -7.40% | -3.18% | -5.4% |
The Celtics clearly want to compete for a championship even if Jayson Tatum isn't available. They can get their chemistry with Vucevic this season and then worst-case scenario have another great chance next season. The Bulls want to rebuild and the upcoming super talented draft is a good start.
The model sees a real improvement from Boston and an expected drop-off from Chicago this season.
Over the last 2 seasons the Bulls have actually had a better win% (54.5%) and point differential (-0.6) in games where Vucevic did not play than in games he did play (46.7%, -2.3 pt diff) but this 1.6 pt difference is based on a small sample size of just 11 games without him and 122 with him.
Vucevic IS NOT a shot blocker like Porzingis was but he's a lot more durable and available. Like Porzingis and Al Horford, he provides the Celtics with efficient shooting on two's (57.9%), great 3pt shooting (39.2%) and nearly 10 rebounds per game. His lack of defense compared to good defensive bigs is why Chicago wasn't better with him than without but considering Boston only lost Anfernee Simons, it's not like he's going to make Boston's defense worse.
| BOSTON | PROJ WINS | WIN% | PLAYOFF | WIN CONF | CHAMP | REM WIN% |
| w/ Simons | 52.0 | 63.4% | 100.0% | 24.01% | 8.94% | 63.6% |
| w/ Vucevic | 54.4 | 66.3% | 100.0% | 34.46% | 15.53% | 70.8% |
| Difference | 2.4 | 2.9% | 0.0% | 10.45% | 6.59% | 7.2% |
| CHICAGO | PROJ WINS | WIN% | PLAYOFF | WIN CONF | CHAMP | REM REC |
| w/ Vucevic | 36.7 | 44.8% | 11.3% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 39.6% |
| w/ Simons | 34.3 | 41.8% | 2.6% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 38.8% |
| Difference | -2.4 | -2.9% | -8.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.8% |
Jaden Ivey may have more 'star' potential, but adding a proven vet in Kevin Huerter who doesn't need the ball in his hand to contribute definitely helps Detroit improve on their East leading % chance to win the conference and the championship.
The sample size is small, but since last season in 114 games Kevin Huerter played his team won 54.4% of games with a +1.2 point differential. In the 17 games he missed they won 23.5% with a -11.6 point differential. Obviously this drop off is basically a Nikola Jokic level difference that reflects small sample size more than actual value, but it's still pretty compelling that a below .500 Bulls team in each of the last 2 seasons was a winning team when Huerter played.
Same can't be said about Jaden Ivey. The Pistons won 58.7% of 63 games with a +3.1 pt diff with Ivey and 61.6% of 73 games with a +4.4 pt differential without Ivey.
| DETROIT | PROJ WINS | WIN% | PLAYOFF | WIN CONF | CHAMP | REM WIN% |
| Before Trade | 57.2 | 69.7% | 100.0% | 32.04% | 12.39% | 62.2% |
| After Trade | 57.6 | 70.2% | 100.0% | 33.15% | 14.30% | 63.5% |
| Difference | 0.4 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 1.11% | 1.91% | 1.3% |
| CHICAGO | PROJ WINS | WIN% | PLAYOFF | WIN CONF | CHAMP | REM REC |
| Before Trade | 37.6 | 45.9% | 16.7% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 42.5% |
| After Trade | 36.7 | 44.8% | 11.3% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 39.6% |
| Difference | -0.9 | -1.1% | -5.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -2.9% |
For this Memphis and Utah trade neither team improved the rest of this season. For Memphis it was expected (and probably hoped for) that they get worse. But for Utah the slightly lower 23.8% rest of season win% vs the 25.8% they were at this morning is probably not what they were hoping for.
| UTAH | PROJ WINS | WIN% | PLAYOFF | REM REC | REM WIN% |
| Before Trade | 23.2 | 28.3% | 0.0% | 8.2 - 23.8 | 25.8% |
| After Trade | 22.6 | 27.6% | 0.0% | 7.6 - 24.4 | 23.8% |
| Difference | -0.6 | -0.8% | 0.0% | -2.0% | |
| MEMPHIS | PROJ WINS | WIN% | PLAYOFF | REM REC | REM WIN% |
| Before Trade | 33.4 | 40.8% | 2.0% | 14.4 - 19.6 | 42.4% |
| After Trade | 32.2 | 39.3% | 1.2% | 13.2 - 20.8 | 38.9% |
| Difference | -1.2 | -1.5% | -0.8% | -3.5% |
I looked at how Memphis did in games Jaren Jackson played vs when he didn't play. Even though he was a former DPOY the team actually allowed fewer pts per game (111.8) when he didn't play vs the 115.9 they allowed when he did play. Opposing teams shot 53.3% from 2pt range vs Memphis when he played vs just 50.7% when he didn't play.
His presence helped Memphis average +5.3 more points when he played (114.5) than when he didn't (109.2). So it looks like without him Memphis' offense is hurt which is why they win less. At the same time, Utah's defense doesn't improve because Jackson's sub 6.0 rebounding average doesn't help them improve on the defensive boards and his shot blocking doesn't actually translate to reduced 2pt FG% from opponents.
Here's a snapshot of CBS Sports Bracketology's projected NCAA Tournament seeds across every multi-bid conference, based on committee tendencies and historical seeding logic. From projected No. 1 seeds at the top to teams fighting to stay in the field, this is how the bracket would shape up if Selection Sunday were today.
Arizona checks every box of the modern national title formula — elite defense, elite offense, early-season respect — the only thing they'd be breaking is geography. A West Coast team trying to snap a 25-year championship trend.
The PGA Tour heads to Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open. Taft Gantt uses course history, Strokes Gained metrics, and recent PGA Tour results to identify the best betting value this week -- Jason Day 33-1, Maverick McNealy 33-1, Ryan Gerard 43-1, and Will Zalatoris 47-1.
CBS Sports Bracketology projects clear separation in both SEC games Tuesday. Alabama's offensive efficiency and shot-making create a strong edge over Missouri, while Vanderbilt's scoring margin and interior efficiency give them control against Kentucky. Both games carry real seeding implications, and performances tonight will matter when the committee stacks SEC contenders in March.
Tonight's Big Ten showdown features two teams CBS Sports Bracketology currently projects as No. 1 seeds. The model projects Michigan to win 82–75 driven by a clear rebounding edge and stronger two-point efficiency. This would give Nebraska its first loss and upgrade Michigan which already has a top-tier NET and high-end wins.
The model gives the Seattle Seahawks a clear edge, projecting a 25–20 win over the Los Angeles Rams. Seattle's advantage shows up in overall yardage and scoring efficiency, with higher projected total yards and touchdowns. Add in fewer expected turnovers and a field goal edge, and the model points to Seattle controlling the game flow.
Below are our top Rams @ Seahawks anytime touchdown scorers, with a side-by-side comparison of each player's projected scoring probability versus their implied odds.
| POS | TEAM | PLAYER | ATD% | BEST LINE |
| RB | SEA | Kenneth Walker III | 55% | o0.5 -139, 58.2% |
| WR | SEA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 52% | +105, 48.8% (DK) |
| RB | LAR | Kyren Williams | 45% | +135, 42.6% (DK) |
| WR | LAR | Davante Adams | 38% | o0.5 +125, 44.4% |
| TE | SEA | AJ Barner | 33% | +210, 32.3% (FD) |
| WR | LAR | Puka Nacua | 33% | o0.5 +120, 45.5 |
| TE | LAR | Colby Parkinson | 20% | o0.5 +325, 23.5% |
This one profiles as tight, but the model leans New England Patriots, projecting a 21–19 win over the Denver Broncos. New England holds small edges in both passing and rushing efficiency, while Denver's pressure advantage (projected sack edge) keeps it close. With turnovers nearly even, this matchup comes down to ball control and finishing drives late.
Below are our top anytime touchdown scorers for the Patriots @ Broncos game, with a side-by-side comparison of each player's projected scoring probability versus their implied odds.
| POS | TEAM | PLAYER | ATD% | BEST LINE |
| RB | DEN | RJ Harvey | 51% | +125, 44.4% (FD) |
| RB | NE | Rhamondre Stevenson | 34% | o0.5 +140, 41.7% |
| RB | NE | TreVeyon Henderson | 27% | o0.5 +270, 27% |
| WR | DEN | Courtland Sutton | 27% | o0.5 +270, 27% |
| WR | NE | Kayshon Boutte | 25% | +320, 23.8% (FD) |
| TE | NE | Hunter Henry | 24% | o0.5 +200, 33.3% |
| WR | NE | Stefon Diggs | 20% | o0.5 +220, 31.2% |
| WR | DEN | Marvin Mims | 16% | o0.5 +550, 15.4% |
These matchups are the kind the selection committee will circle when it comes time to seed the bracket. Here's the projected win probability for each of the weekend's biggest games.
We went around the office to gather everyone's best bets ahead of UFC 324 on Paramount+, including picks for the Paddy Pimblett vs. Justin Gaethje main card.
Given the Oklahoma City Thunder are nearly 50/50 to repeat as champions, to have over a 4% chance to win it all is actually a very solid number for the Golden State Warriors. But with Jimmy Butler tearing his ACL that number dropped to under 2.5%. Their lower projected win total and playoff seeding does increase their chances of having to be in the play-in but overall their playoff% still remains over 80%.
Their -3.5 percentage point playoff drop is only a 4.1% decline. But their -3.2 percentage point chance of winning the West and -1.56 percentage point drop in Champ% are 36%+ declines (nearly 10x as impactful).
| Golden State | PROJ WINS | WIN% | PLAYOFF | WIN CONF | CHAMP |
| w/ Jimmy Butler | 47.6 | 58.1% | 84.4% | 8.58% | 4.03% |
| w/o Jimmy Butler | 47.0 | 57.3% | 80.9% | 5.41% | 2.47% |
| Difference | -0.6 | -0.8% | -3.5% | -3.17% | -1.56% |
Jimmy Butler's impact on the Warriors since last February has been measurably massive. He has missed 11 games since joining the Warriors and in those games the Warriors have a point differential of -2.5 vs a +5.5 differential in the 80 games he has played. They have won nearly 64% of their games with him vs just 45.5% without him. He has been extremely efficient offensively and his presence/absence shows the team scoring +6.9 more points per game with him available.
| STAT | PRESENCE | ABSENCE | IMPACT |
| J. BUTLER PLAYS | 80 GP | 11 GP | |
| POINT DIFFERENTIAL | 5.5 | -2.5 | 8 |
| POINTS PER GAME | 115.9 | 109 | 6.9 |
| POINTS ALLOWED | 110.4 | 111.5 | 1.1 |
| TEAM 2PT FG% | 55 | 52.5 | 2.5 |
| TEAM 3PT FG% | 36.8 | 34.1 | 2.7 |
| DEFENSIVE 2PT FG% | 54.6 | 49.3 | -5.3 |
| DEFENSIVE 3PT FG% | 35.8 | 37.5 | 1.7 |
| REBOUNDS | 42.9 | 47.5 | -4.6 |
| TURNOVERS | 13.8 | 15 | 1.2 |
| WIN-LOSS | 51-29, 63.8% | 5-6, 45.5% | 18.30% |
| ATS RECORD | 40-38, 51.3% | 5-6, 45.5% | 5.80% |
| OVER-UNDER | 45-35, 56.2% | 4-7, 36.4% | 19.90% |
Here's "What's on the Line" in each of the three games on Saturday's CBS college basketball coverage.
Inside the Lines nailed the National Championship projection — calling the final score at 27–21. The model was just one yard off Carson Beck's passing total and nearly perfect on Fernando Mendoza's line, projecting 16-for-26 as he finished 16-for-27.
