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Inside the Lines is a free pick service designed to give you picks at the best price based on the model's projections. Below you can see find CFP Bracket Projection, PGA Tour Best Bets, Thursday Night Football, and NBA props.

[Nov 12, 2025 at 10:47 am ET · Stephen Oh]

Week 11 is mostly about controversial quarterback rankings. Everything is boiling down to do we think what we've seen the last 2 or 3 weeks is indicative of a player's average or are they outlier (good or bad) performances?

I added another wrinkle to the analysis by using player prop lines to project fantasy points. At this point in the week there are limited lines so not everyone of these players has a complete set of data but this table shows the current situation.

PLAYER	PROP PROJ	AVERAGE OF PROP LINES IN KEY STATS	ITL/SPLN PROJECTED STATS	FFT CONS RANK
Marcus Mariota (22.7)	15.8	1.45 PASSTD | 204 PASSYD | 0.3 TD |	1.7 PASSTD | 226 PASSYD | 34 RUSHYD | 0.2 TD |	14
Jordan Love (21.5)	17.9	**1.76 PASSTD | 236 PASSYD | 0.23 TD | **	1.8 PASSTD | 247 PASSYD | 17 RUSHYD | 0.1 TD |	18
Matthew Stafford (19.1)	20.3	2.2 PASSTD | 268 PASSYD | 5.3 RUSHYD | 0.05 TD |	1.7 PASSTD | 235 PASSYD | 2 RUSHYD | 0.0 TD |	4
Joe Flacco (17.5)	19.1	1.98 PASSTD | 272 PASSYD | 0.05 TD |	1.5 PASSTD | 244 PASSYD | 3 RUSHYD | 0.1 TD |	9
Dallas Goedert (11.3)	11.3	4.5 REC | 42 RECYD | 0.43 TD |	3.6 REC | 39 RECYD | RUSHYD | 0.6 TD |	11

Marcus Mariota (ITL QB7 | FFT QB14): The Commanders were blown out by the Lions because their defense is horrible. Marcus Mariota was actually QB11 last week with 2 passing TDs and a statistically strong 16/22 passing. The model is projecting him for 22+ fantasy points because the RB situation is a bit of a mess in Washington. Mariota's 34 rushing yards (0.2 TDs) adds over 5 fantasy points to his passing production. His player prop lines project 16 fantasy points passing so the oddsmakers see a similar 21+ projection if you add in his rushing. Miami shocked Buffalo and Josh Allen was bad but his final stat line still shows over 300 passing yards, 2 passing TDs and another 31 rushing yards. 

Baker Mayfield (ITL QB8 | FFT QB13):  I understand why he's a sit candidate. Buffalo's defensive passer rating is under 85 and they are allowing just 170 passing yards per game. But I take their statistics with a grain of salt. Outside of their great performance vs Mahomes and the Chiefs the Bills defense racked up most of their good defensive passing stats against bad/struggling QBs (Tua twice, Bryce Young, Michael Penix, Spencer Rattler, Justin Fields). Lamar and Drake Maye did just fine. I think Baker has earned the right to be classed closer to Lamar and Maye than the other guys.

Jordan Love (ITL QB9 | FFT QB18): He went from top 3 in the MVP after completing 20 straight passes vs the Steelers to the guy who will get the coach fired in two weeks. The sample size on Jordan Love is large enough for me to think he's still a top 10 QB. He's also rushed for 18+ yards in 5 of his last 7 games and one of those games was when he didn't need to run (vs Pittsburgh). The Eagles defense, when click on all cylinders, is probably the best in the league. The Giants have plenty of talent but statistically are still barely above average in key defensive passing metrics. The Giants will likely start Jameis Winston and if Tampa Bay Jameis is there then maybe Love gets some short fields off of turnovers.

Matthew Stafford (ITL QB 18 | FFT QB4): Would I have the guts to sit Stafford after what he's done the last 3 weeks or in 5 of his last 6? Nope. Stafford is on an all-time heater but his one game where he did not put up big numbers was vs Baltimore (181 yards, 1 TD). The Ravens defense still has a lot of Mike Macdonald's system and Seattle's defense is rolling these days. The model is projecting him for 19.1 FPs and his player prop lines project a similar 20.3 fantasy points. A 20.3 FP average would be QB15 based on average for the season.

Joe Flacco (ITL QB 24 | FFT QB 9): Joe Flacco's 470 yards and 4 TDs were awesome, but let's not forget that he had 2 interceptions and a lost fumble that game as well. Pittsburgh's defense is 100% dependent on forcing turnovers. When they do, they look good. When they don't, they get rolled. Both our model and the player prop lines project Flacco for just 17.5 to 19 fantasy points and the Bengals' team total is just 21.5 to 22 points. What I know is these average based projections are probably not going to happen. Flacco and the Bengals will either be way above or way below these numbers based on turnovers.

Dallas Goedert (ITL TE11 | FFT TE4): Our fantasy projection of 11.3 is identical to the odds implied projection of 11.3. The odds like Goedert to have a few more yards on more receptions while our model likes his chances of scoring a TD more than the odds. If he does both (hits the over on receptions / yards AND scores a TD) then, yeah, he's top 4 TE. But I think the recent pattern of primetime matchups between contenders being slugfests could happen again.

 

[Nov 12, 2025 at 7:55 am ET · Stephen Oh]

New York Moneyline (-186 FanDuel)

The line implies 65% and our sim has this at Knicks nearly 75%. This line steamed quickly from just -166 on FanDuel so you'll want to grab this now. The Knicks are on a back-to-back but last night was a pretty easy win vs Memphis and they are at home where they are not only 7-0 straight up, but also 7-0 ATS. They have dominated the boards at home and while they did not outrebound Memphis last night, that was because they sat Mitchell Robinson so he could go tonight.

The key advantage for New York is their defense holding Orlando well under their odds implied 112.5 points. The model projects Orlando for 109 points with the Knicks +7 on the boards and the Knicks having a +6% advantage from 3pt range. The Magic have been outshot by 3 percentage points on the road (last season was even worse at -7%). The Knicks are +9 on the boards at home and are outshooting teams by +2 percentage points at home.

Sam Merrill Over 21.5 PTS+REB+AST (-105 DraftKIngs)

Maybe the Cavaliers decided to all catch the Miami Flu with their playing the Heat on Monday and again tonight. They are sitting Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland and Evan Mobley. Sam Merrill hit the over 2.5 Made 3pt bet on Monday despite starting 0-6 from 3pt range because he ended up launching 16 threes. With around 60% of their offense resting tonight you have to assume Merrill will get all the shots he needs to score over his points line, and will have to play heavy minutes resulting in overs in rebounding and assists.

In this situation we are projecting him for 28 PRA which is +9 over his 18.9 average, but given who is out I think a near 50% increase in production is likely. Darius Garland was out to start the season and when he was Merrill went over 20.5 PRA the first 3 games of the season (23, 28, and 21).

Cedric Coward Over 12.5 Points (-103 DraftKings)

I'm going to give Coward a chance to redeem himself after he only scored 11 points last night because he missed all 5 of his 3pt attempts in Madison Square Garden. Maybe the bright lights of NY were to bright. Coward was shooting 44% from 3pt range before that game. Yesterday the over 12.5 points on  DraftKings was -125 so we are getting much better juice with his under from yesterday lowering his road average to just 11.5 (1-3 over 12.5).

The positives from yesterday was he played 30 minutes (2nd most of his rookie season), stuffed the stat sheet defensively (2 steals, 2 blocks), had 8 REB+AST and got to the line (6/6 on free throws). A little regression to the mean from 3pt range vs a Boston team that is playing back-to-back as well and have NOT been defending the three well at home this season (allow 39% vs just 35% last season).

Deni Avdija Over 7.5 Rebounds (+105 FanDuel)

Avdija ended '24-25 as a monster 12+ rebound per game player. The Pelicans have been getting demolished on the boards by 4 per game and especially at home with a ridiculous -14 per game in 3 games. Avdija started the season with 4 straight under 7.5 rebound games and 6 of his first 7. As a result his line is down to 7.5 heavily juiced under.

I think if he came in with his recent 2-1 over stretch with 11 and 10 rebound games the line would be set at 8.5 juiced over or even 9.5 rebounds. We are projecting him for 8.3 rebounds and would charge -125 for over 7.5 boards.

Mark Williams Over 12.5 Points (-118 FanDuel)

Anthony Davis may or may not be back but even if he's back I doubt he'll be in dominant form. He looks kind of heavy and not particularly motivated with the Mavs off to a bad start. The Suns on the other hand have been a very pleasant over .500 surprise and Mark Williams has provided 4 double doubles in his last 8 games.

We are getting a buy low spot because he only had 2 points in his last outing in just 20 minutes. But that was a game where the Suns dominated and won by 23 points. Mark Williams is very injury prone, enough to rescind last season's trade to the Lakers. The Suns won't play him in any garbage time situation where he's not needed. But when he is needed he scores plenty. Since last season he has actually averaged a ton more (17) on the road than at home (12.4) and his over is 19-7, 73% on the road (just 11-17 at home). Prior to his 2 pt outing he came in 5-2 over this line.

[Nov 11, 2025 at 1:29 pm ET · Taft Gantt]

The PGA Tour is back at Port Royal for the Bermuda Championship — a 6,828-yard course along the coast. This week, I'm targeting players who can keep it straight in the windy conditions and have proven success here.

*All the best value at the moment is from DraftKings

Patrick Rodgers (35-1 To Win, +360 Top 10)

This has been one of Rodgers' best stops on Tour — T9, T3, and 4th in his last three appearances at Port Royal. He leads all non-winners in career earnings at the Bermuda Championship and is coming off a T6 finish at the WWT Championship, where he gained at least two strokes in every round. Rodgers' combination of form and course history makes him an ideal fit this week.

Nico Echavarria (28-1 To Win, +300 Top 10)

This number feels too long for one of the best players in the field — and one of the only two-time Tour winners teeing it up this week. Echavarria sits 62nd in the FedEx Cup, with a top-35 finish locking him into the Aon Next 10. He's trending in the right direction with a 9th and T14 in his last two starts and should thrive on a short, tropical course like Port Royal.

Matti Schmid (30-1 To Win, +140 Top 20)

Schmid posted a solo 3rd at Port Royal last year and enters off a T8 at the WWT Championship — his second top-15 finish of the fall swing. Ranked just outside the Aon Next 10, he needs T13 or better to get in, giving him plenty of motivation.

Vince Whaley (35-1, +170 Top 20)

Whaley's course history at Port Royal is elite: T7, T8, and T5 in his last three starts. He's also trending this fall with a T17 at the WWT Championship, gaining strokes in every major category.

Also sprinkling units on:

Justin Lower (Top 10 +600), Pierson Coody (Top 20, +140), Greyson Sigg (Top 20, +230)

[Nov 11, 2025 at 12:25 pm ET · Stephen Oh]

Justin Fields Over 0.5 a Passing Touchdown (-118 BetMGM)

The Patriots record is awesome but their soft schedule has been like a 40 mph wind to their back propelling them way beyond where they would be in some key areas, especially pass defense. They have allowed the 11th highest defensive passer rating this season (98.4) despite facing some of the worse passing teams in the league (Penix/ATL, Gabriel/CLE, Ward/TEN, Rattler/NOR, Young/CAR, Tua/MIA, Geno/LV). The average passer rating of all 9 QBs they've faced is just 86.6 even if you include  Baker and Josh Allen.

They are allowing QBs to pass for an average of +12 higher passer rating and that 12 difference is the gap between Patrick Mahomes and Carson Wentz. Fields is horrible, I know. But if you look at his gamelog when he doesn't play a good defense he's actually had big statistical games (244 yards, 1 TD vs CiN, 283 and 2 vs DAL, 218 and 1 vs PIT). I'm banking on the Patriots defense not being as great as their 19.2 pts allowed would indicate and Fields playing well enough to not get pulled for Tyrod Taylor.

Drake Maye Over 5.5 Rush Attempts (+105 BetMGM)

Not only has he gone over this in 5 straight games (6.6 avg, 7-3 over this season) we also get the benefit of 2 or 3 possible kneel downs in the final 2 minutes to get over. For what it's worth Dillon Gabriel had a good rushing day vs the Jets defense last week with a  career high 5 carries for 54 yards (came in with 6 total carries for 30 yards in his first 4 starts).

Maye is 2nd in the league with 8.9 pass yards per attempt. With no Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams the Jets defense will not get as much pressure and will likely drop back plenty of defenders deep leaving wide open running lanes for Maye. It'll be too tempting not to take three or four easy first downs with his legs and if you combine with a designed run or two and a couple kneel downs you get yourself to the 6+ carries.

Drake May Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-172 FanDuel)

With a 2.3 projection we'd charge at least -250 for him to go over 1.5 passing touchdowns. For New England in November at night it's not going to be that bad (35 degrees, low precip%, avg wind just 10 mph). Browns fans are losing their s**t because Kevin Stefanski is sticking with Dillon Gabriel after his last game vs the Jets. But even in that game Gabriel had 2 passing touchdowns. So if a 3rd round rookie who is struggling can get 2 passing TDs vs the post trade deadline Jets, what could leading MVP candidate Drake Maye get?

We've simply had too many bad offensive performances in prime time recently (LV-DEN last Thursday, PIT-LAC SNF, PHI-GB MNF). Eventually one of these QBs are going to break the cycle and have a prolific passing TD game. Maye is 8-2 over 1.5 TDs this season in a very favorable matchup.

Breece Hall Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)

With Garrett Wilson out there's no one to really throw to other than a rookie TE Mason Taylor or the recently acquired AD Mitchell who didn't play last week. I figure Fields will either have a surprisingly good game (150 passing yards) and Hall will get his 15% share and soar over this line or Fields will be horrible and get yanked by mid-2nd  quarter and Tyrod Taylor will get a shot.

We know the Jets are rebuilding and Hall is eligible for an extension in the off-season. Even if this is a blowout the Jets have every reason to let Hall stay in the game and perhaps they can get the 3rd rounder for him that they didn't get at the trade deadline. We project him for 24 receiving yards. He's averaged 7 fewer yards on the road than at home in his career but he's still averaging 27.3 playing on the road. He is 12-11 over 15.5 in road games but that was primarily with a healthy, talented WR1 in Garrett Wilson.

[Nov 11, 2025 at 10:25 am ET · Stephen Oh]

De'Von Achane Anytime Touchdown (-170 Fanatics)

The only complicating factor fort his bet is the fact that it's in Spain. Achane is the most explosive RB outside of Jonathan Taylor. I love that even in his one bad rushing game (16 yards on 10 carries vs Carolina) that he still scored a receiving TD. He has accounted for 5 of 6 team rushing TDs and 4 of 17 receiving TDs. He is accounting for nearly 40% of team offensive TDs for a team that is averaging just 21 points per game.

Unless Washington's defense gets inspired by the local Spanish culture they will continue to be jaw droppingly bad, especially vs creative offensive teams. This line implies a 63% chance but our model has this over 80% because Miami is expected to score around 20% more than they average.

Drake London Anytime Touchdown (+106 Caesars)

It's one thing to have 22 targets, 15 receptions, 222 rec yards, and 4 TDs the past 2 games on say the Rams. But it's that much more impressive when you consider Michael Penix has passed for just 34 completions on 65 attempts for 398 yards and 4 TDs in these games. London is not a burner. Everyone knows Penix is going to target him half the time and yet London still accounts for over half the yards and an obscene 50% of team rec TDs over his career.

Penix's pass TD line is a juiced under 1.5 which projects to around 1.25 passing TDs and we have London getting his 50% of that and would set this line closer to -150.

Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown (+135 DraftKings)

We are now getting solid +$$$ on Kyren Williams because he's more in a 60/40 split with Blake Corum for carries. But Corum's success has improved the Rams running game and helped them get into the Red Zone with more regularity. The Rams are actually averaging fewer passing yards per game this season vs last but have increased their scoring from 22 to 28 pts per game.

Williams scored twice on the ground last week. He has scored in 6 of the Rams 9 games. I'm comfortable capitalizing on a line adjusted based on reduced carries but not his sustained super high ATD rate.

Rashee Rice Anytime Touchdown (+135 Fanatics)

Our projection for Rice's receiving yards is actually around 20 yards under his 73.5 line. This is based on the quality of Denver's defense. So I love that we have tremendous value on Rice's ATD line. We would only have fair value if we used just his receiving TD projection, but he scored a rushing TD in his last game vs Buffalo and it looks like Andy Reid is scheming increasingly more rushing opportunities for Rice.

Rice has rushed 4 times for 18 yards and a TD in 3 games this season. He had 2 carries for -2 yards and 0 TDs in his first 20 games. 

[Nov 12, 2025 at 11:57 am ET · Inside the Lines Team]

Inside the Lines team

[Nov 11, 2025 at 8:26 am ET · Inside the Lines Team]

Inside the Lines team