Best NBA Bets for November 10
We are coming off a 5-1 night which included a couple +$$$ bets. Today we're pushing our luck with 5 +$$$ bets.
Luka Doncic Over 1.5 Steals (+118 DraftKings)
This is a +$$$ bet on a line under both his 1.7 average (1.8 on the road) since '24 and his projection of 2 steals. We are projecting two steals because the Lakers are forcing +3 more turnovers per game this season vs last and Charlotte is averaging even more turnover (16) than they did last season. The logic is simple here. Doncic averages over 1.5 steals and this is a matchup that skews higher than average.
He only had 1 steal his last game but had 8 in his previous two games so he's been aggressive on that end. When he's heavy he would go for steals over trying to actually stay in front of his man, but now 'skinny Luka' can get steals through quickness and being better conditioned.
Jalen Duren Over 2.5 Assists (+145 Caesars)
He's been an absolute scoring and rebounding monster for the past week, but he's only 2-8 over 2.5 assists this season. He has scored 21, 30 and 22 his last 3 games and has put up at least 20 in 5 of his last 7 games. I'm banking on Alex Sarr continuing to be an aggressive shot blocker as he's upped his average from 1.5 in 27.1 minutes as a rookie to 2.5 in 28.4 this season.
Duren will dominate the boards but may look to dish to an open shooter or someone cutting to the rim if Sarr is manning the paint. Even with a low over rate this season he was 36-38 with a 2.7 average over 2.5 assists last season. We are projecting him for 2.5 assists and at +145 we want to capitalize on a regression to the mean situation where he should start having a few 4 assist games to get back to last season's levels.
Deni Avdija Over 0.5 Block (+120 DraftKings)
This is another player who has been an absolute PRA monster recently. He's a true star at this point and that means he's locked in for 35+ minutes. But the strategy from opponents is to try to get him in foul trouble which is why he's had 5 PFs in two of his last 4 games. I expect the front court led Magic to challenge him and I expect him to get at least one block.
Last season he only went over this in around 30% of his games but he is currently on a 5-1 over run. Orlando's shots blocked average was just 4.2 last season but that's all the way up to 5.9 this season.
Sam Merrill Over 2.5 Made 3PT (+100 BetMGM)
In the two games that Darius Garland played, Sam Merrill still hit 4 threes in both games. He may get fewer minutes and FGAs with Garland but he is even wider open which is why he shot 8 for 10 from 3pt range in these two games. I like that he's coming off 'just' a 2 made three night after opening the season with 6 straight overs.
While he's not going to shoot 55% from three point range for the season he is a high 30s shooter since the '23-24 season and his 20+ minutes is a lock as the Cavs don't have a very deep bench, in terms of offense. The over is 19-15 when he plays at least 22 minutes.
Ivica Zubac Over 2.5 Assists (+120 Fanatics)
Today's strategy is all about taking bigs who have been tearing it up offensively and on the boards and taking their non-PTS/REB lines. Those lines have steamed up too much while the others have not. Zubac is coming off a 21/15 and 21/11 game but he comes in just 2-4 over 2.5 assists. Since last season his average and over 2.5 rate is much higher at home (2.9 avg, 26-22 over) vs the road (2.4 avg, 21-27 over). Our projection has him at 2.6 assists.

















