The Philadelphia 76ers welcome the Miami Heat to Wells Fargo Center for a prime time showdown on Wednesday. The 76ers are 32-21 overall and 17-10 at home this season, including two straight victories. However, Philadelphia lost the first head-to-head tilt with Miami, and the Heat will arrive on the second night of a back-to-back with travel before this matchup. Jimmy Butler (personal), Terry Rozier (knee), and Josh Richardson (shoulder) are expected to miss the game for the Heat. Joel Embiid (knee), Tobias Harris (hip), De'Anthony Melton (back), Kyle Lowry (reconditioning), and Nicolas Batum (hamstring) are out for the 76ers.
For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the 76ers as 3.5-point favorites, and tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 225 in the latest Heat vs. 76ers odds. Before making any 76ers vs. Heat picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 17 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 55-35 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $1,800. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
The model has set its sights on Heat vs. Sixers. You can head to SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Sixers vs. Heat:
- Heat vs. 76ers spread: 76ers -3.5
- Heat vs. 76ers over/under: 225 points
- Heat vs. 76ers money line: 76ers -155, Heat +131
- MIA: The Heat are 2-4-1 against the spread with no rest
- PHI: The 76ers are 16-11 against the spread in home games
- Heat vs. 76ers picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Heat can cover
Miami is coming off an impressive win on Tuesday in Milwaukee. The Heat won by a 26-point margin over the Bucks, shooting 52% from the field with 19 of 40 shooting from 3-point range and 34 assists. Miami is above-average in 3-point accuracy this season, and the Heat are also in the top five in free throw accuracy at more than 82%. Philadelphia yields almost 25 free throw attempts per game on defense, and Miami has a dynamic and versatile big man in Bam Adebayo. He anchors a strong Miami defense, and Adebayo is a three-time All-Star and four-time All-Defensive selection.
Adebayo is averaging more than 20 points and 10 rebounds per game, and he put up 26 points and 15 rebounds in the first matchup against Philadelphia this season. With Adebayo in the middle, the Heat are giving up fewer than 1.14 points per possession this season, and Miami is in the top five of the league in free throw prevention and points allowed in the paint. The Heat are also in the top 10 in defensive rebound rate, second-chance points allowed and fast break points allowed. See who to back at SportsLine.
Why the 76ers can cover
In the team's most recent game against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday, Philadelphia was dominant on offense. The 76ers scored 1.28 points per possession in that game, shooting 55% from the field and 42% from 3-point range. Philadelphia racked up 60 points in the paint, and the 76ers snapped Cleveland's nine-game winning streak. For the season, Philadelphia also has sterling offensive numbers, as the 76ers are scoring 118.8 points per 100 possessions. The 76ers lead the NBA in free throw creation, averaging 26.7 attempts per game, and Philadelphia is shooting 82.9% from the free throw line.
Philadelphia is also No. 1 in the league with an 11.9% turnover rate, and the 76ers have excellent metrics in other areas. Nick Nurse's team ranks in the top eight of the NBA in offensive rebound rate (29.9%), second-chance points (15.6 per game), fast break points (16.3 per game), and points in the paint (52.9 per game). On the other side, Miami ranks dead-last in the NBA in blocked shots, paving the way for Philadelphia to attack without fear. See who to back at SportsLine.
How to make Heat vs. 76ers picks
The model has simulated Sixers vs. Heat 10,000 times and is leaning Over on the total, projecting 12 players reaching double-figures. It also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can only see the picks at SportsLine.
So who wins 76ers vs. Heat, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 55-35 roll on top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.
