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The Eagles are the defending champions and they're starting the reigning Super Bowl MVP in Nick Foles but, uh, they're starting the reigning Super Bowl MVP in Nick Foles. Atlanta should have beaten Philly in this same spot in the playoffs and I think the Falcons are better now and the Eagles are not. Give me Atlanta to win outright and cover as a road dog in the opener.
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Can't take the Bills in the first week, even with this obscene spread. The Ravens defense is going to come out on fire, the Bills aren't going to be prepared on offense and don't have any protection for Nathan Peterman, and Baltimore is going to take a couple of deep shots to John Brown, who will be the hottest waiver wire name coming out of the first week of the season after the Ravens roll.
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The Tyrod Taylor Era will kick off this Sunday in Cleveland, as the Browns host the Steelers in what many believe could be a close game. This line is flying down with Le'Veon Bell's absence but I doubt it gets lower than a field goal (people will buy back Pittsburgh at that point). I really like Cleveland here: they'll be amped up, Todd Haley will know the keys to beating the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger isn't great on the road. Browns win outright!
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This line stinks? Why are the Colts favored here? The Bengals are a better team -- the only thing that makes the Colts a reasonable favorite is the return of Andrew Luck. Which is fine, because Luck might have a nice game, but I'm not sure who is stopping the Bengals offense. This reeks of a breakout game for Joe Mixon among other members of this offense.
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I'm all in on the Titans this year but I'm not buying them in Week 1 in Miami. Even if the Dolphins could end up being a questionable team this year, they should be ready to go in Week 1 with a healthy Ryan Tannehill. This is the first Week 1 home game of Adam Gase's tenure in Miami. They won last year in Los Angeles against the Chargers (Week 2, because of the hurricane) and nearly beat the Seahawks in Seattle in 2016.
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This is one of my best bets, and it's been that way since May. All due respect to the 49ers, but the Vikings are a vastly superior team in the pantheon of NFC contenders. Jimmy Garoppolo will probably be great, but the Vikings have a sick defense with pass rushers galore and Harrison Smith lurking on the back end. Minnesota is going to cut Dalvin Cook loose and show off Kirk Cousins on a big-time homefield stage.
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It would be quite nice to get this at seven points or more, considering that it's the Patriots playing at home and Bill Belichick has a history of beating up on Bill O'Brien in these games. The only time BOB has covered against his old boss in their three matchups since 2015 was last year when Deshaun Watson went toe-to-toe with Tom Brady up in New England. I think he can keep them close here and the Texans are as healthy as they'll be all season.
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Mark Ingram is suspended ... but so is Jameis Winston. And all due respect to Ryan Fitzpatrick, but he's not at the same level as Alvin Kamara when it comes to replacing the guy in front of him. Kamara was a monster last year and he might regress some this season, but I don't think it happens in Week 1, and the Saints come out and put one on the Buccaneers, winning handily and covering a large number.
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A nonsensical pick if there ever was one: the Giants are clearly an inferior team to the Jaguars, who enter the season with one of the most dangerous defenses in the NFL, a great running game and an interest in getting Tom Coughlin some measure of revenge against the team that fired him. And yet, I like Eli Manning and Co. in this spot. Pat Shurmur will be creative with the offensive plan and they're fairly healthy on the defensive side of the ball (although Olivier Vernon might be out, which is a nightmare). I'll take the Giants to cover as home dogs and win outright.
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If you look at Andy Reid's history in Week 1 games, he's pretty darn good with the Chiefs, going 4-1 since he arrived in Kansas City. The loss was a bizarre 2014 nightmare at home against the Titans that I don't even remember (Alex Smith threw three picks and the Chiefs scored 10 points). Patrick Mahomes is under center now and this offense should be more explosive. The Chiefs have beaten the Chargers eight straight games. I think that streak goes to nine. Give me the points.
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My real reason for picking the Cardinals here? There's only so many chances to use a picture of Sam Bradford in any given year! Actually I think that Arizona is pretty good value considering they are at home, with a healthy Bradford and a stout defense, a rejuvenated David Johnson (who should go off) and playing against a Redskins team that has traditionally been slow out of the gate under Jay Gruden, all while not giving up any points.
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This is just a good matchup for Carolina. They have a run-stuffing linebacker in Luke Kuechly and bodies up front (Dontari Poe, Kawaan Short) to limit the Cowboys running game. Cam Newton should have a field day working it short to Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore and I like the Panthers in a pretty easy win at home to start the season against Dallas.
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I like Seattle a lot this year in terms of the noise they can make in the NFC West, but I don't like them in this Week 1 spot, not with a banged up Doug Baldwin being chased down by Chris Harris all day. The Seahawks have Russell Wilson but they don't have much else and Denver is going to have a stout defense this year. A strong effort from Case Keenum can help them win by a score.
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Something about this line strikes me as funny (basically begging you to take the Bears) and if it's less than a touchdown I'm probably taking the Packers (it won't be). But for now I'll ride the preseason hype here: adding Trey Burton is going to do wonders for the Chicago offense and Mitchell Trubisky this season, while picking up Khalil Mack will make the Bears substantially better on defense. They can hang with Green Bay in a primetime season opener.
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The whole world is against the Jets and Sam Darnold here. I got made fun of on CBS Sports HQ over the weekend for suggesting the stage is never too big for Darnold and fantasy experts across the land are suggesting using the Lions as a streaming DST. It's not a terrible option, but I think Darnold surprises in his first game, with the Jets realizing just what they have under center with their young quarterback after an impressive performance against Matt Patricia's defense.
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No chance this line is only 3.5 points by the time this game kicks off. Everyone wants to fade Oakland after Jon Gruden's nonsensical trade of Khalil Mack over the weekend. It might get to a freaking touchdown. And I get why you would take the Rams -- they're a better team (and probably a better coached team if we're being honest). My only rationale here is that weird stuff happens in this late MNF game and I think we see Gruden motivate his guys in Week 1 before going in the tank.
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