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Home teams are traditionally good on Thursday night's and I think the Panthers are an excellent value here for a couple of reasons. One, defenses and the running game usually thrive in these spots and the Panthers are good at running the ball and good at defense and the Buccaneers are not. Carolina should have beaten the Rams in Week 1, but losing that game provides them some value for Thursday. Jameis Winston isn't good. Christian McCaffrey is going to go ham.
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The Lions gagged away a lead against the Cardinals in humiliating and terrible fashion, while the Chargers looked great against the Colts (before almost gagging away the game in terrible fashion as well). Something stinks about this line, though, and I can't shake the fact that Kerryon Johnson might have a monster game against a team that just gave up 174 rush yards to Marlon Mack. Detroit's defensive line should give the Chargers some problems. I wouldn't be surprised if this turned into a sneaky shootout. Matthew Stafford and Philip Rivers both looked sharp last week.
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"Return of the Mack" isn't just a phrase being tossed around in Chapel Hill -- I think they're using it in Indy too after Marlon Mack's 174-yard day against the Chargers in Week 1. The Titans feasted on the Browns porous offensive line, but the Colts protect well up front and should be able to establish the run. Can Jacoby Brissett pick up where Andrew Luck -- who NEVER LOST TO THE TITANS IN HIS CAREER!! -- left off? I think he can.
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Pretty simple situation here: the Bills won against the Jets despite trailing for most of the game on Sunday and the Giants were embarrassed by the Cowboys. Everyone is going to bet on the Bills as a road favorite in New York against a Giants team that is probably pretty terrible. I'm not buying into Josh Allen just quite yet as a road warrior and I think Saquon Barkley can singlehandedly steal this one for New York. Pinch your nose and pull for the dog, but I probably wouldn't bet on the Giants personally.
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Fascinated to see how this game plays out. The over/under opened up at 42 but has since skyrocketed five points to a more robust 47. Understandble, given the Ravens scored 59 points themselves last week. But they could easily drop 35 points on the Cards, call it a day and pound the ball over and over. Will we see the fourth quarter Air Raid attack that Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray engineered over the full course of a game? I'm banking on yes, or at least partially yes and backing the Cards as big dogs here.
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No clue where this line will be by the time the game kicks off, but it's Dolphins catching 19 at home as of this writing. That's a massive number. I would wait to take it if I was dying to take the Dolphins, but i'm not dying to do that! I would rather take the under (48 or 49) and hope Bill Belichick doesn't want to embarrass his old defensive coordinator. If I had to pick a side, I'd roll with Ryan Fitzpatrick and the points. It's just too many.
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Definitely a popular public play -- maybe THE popular public play after the Cowboys smashed the Giants and the Redskins fell apart against the Eagles, not to mention the Cowboys standing as a public darling -- but I can't go away from what I saw out of Dak Prescott and that Cowboys offense on Sunday. Washington's defense is good but I don't think they can score against Dallas. Cowboys will scratch out 21 points and win this by a touchdown.
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There's a decent amount of GARDNER MINSHEW BUZZ rolling around these days after the rookie out of Washington State acquitted himself well against the Chiefs when Nick Foles went down. I'm not totally buying that he'll dominate here but I do think the Jaguars can get their pass rushers after Deshaun Watson, the Texans are coming down off a deflating loss on a short week and the Jaguars can move the ball enough in this game to win outright.
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Little weird to see the Steelers getting more points than they would in a normal pick 'em right? After all, they got manhandled by the Patriots. I put it on New England, who is very good on the back end. I'm not sure Seattle is quite there and Pittsburgh can exploit them at home. Big time bounce back for Ben Roethlisberger and JuJu Smith-Schuster after everyone wrote them off.
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This game opened with the Bengals as a home dog and that's just the wrong number. It quickly corrected itself, with Cincy ending up favored in this game. I would like them at anything less than a field goal and think, with the way Andy Dalton looked in Zac Taylor's offense, they might actually be a little frisky this year. I doubt the 49ers get multiple pick sixes in this game and could see Cincy beating them pretty badly.
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Really testing my love for the Vikings here by fading the 1-0 Packers during Aaron Rodgers home debut and Matt LaFleur's first game at Lambeau Field. The Vikings are 2-2-1 under Mike Zimmer in Lambeau Field, but one of those wins is against Brett Hundley. Aaron Rodgers has owned the Vikings for a long time, but his last two outings haven't been spectacular. I'm going to gamble on a stout defense keeping this close and the Vikings managing to run against Green Bay and not get out of their gameplan. If Kirk Cousins throws the ball 40 times this is probably a bloodbath and not in the way I'm hoping.
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Man this is an inflated line. It's suggesting the Chiefs would be 14-point favorites at home against the Raiders, who just dominated the Broncos on Monday night? Josh Jacobs might run wild in this one, but I don't think Oakland can contain Sammy Watkins and Patrick Mahomes. I also think the Raiders will be coming off the high of that Monday win against Denver and struggle to replicate the same offensive success. Chiefs in a blowout, although Andy Reid's history in Oakland as a fave isn't great: he's just 3-3 ATS since arriving in Kansas City and won his last two games by a combined eight points there.
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Was definitely going to lean Rams in this one -- a difficult game to figure out -- but then Brady Quinn mentioned how important Eric Weddle is to the Rams defense on the Pick Six Podcast (subscribe here!) I came around to backing the Saints. New Orleans hasn't been great in September, but the offense found some life in the second half on Monday and I think it carries over to the west coast. I like a shootout here too, as the Rams should be able to score against New Orleans. But the Saints come out on top in a 35-30 win or something similar.
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Not the best day at the office for Joe Flacco on Monday night. He and the Broncos looked AWFUL in the first half of that game against the Raiders and just got too far behind and were too lethargic. I'm not saying they'll be guns blazing against the Bears, but I expect a much better effort from the defense (Von Miller and Bradley Chubb were nonexistent) and a field goal win.
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Very stinky line here. The Eagles are definitely better! But Case Keenum engineered multiple early touchdown drives against the Philly defense before caving in the second half. The Falcons can do the same thing but they won't melt down (I don't think). And, more importantly, they REALLY have to win this game. Really need it. I think they get it here, as much as I like Philly this year. Kind of love the over in this game.
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The Jets lost in embarrassing fashion on Sunday afternoon but, uh, so did the Browns? Cleveland got manhandled too and now they're 2.5-point favorites? It speaks to the public wanting to back a preseason darling like the Browns and fading a LOSER organization like the Jets. Don't buy into it. The Jets roster doesn't have the name brand value, per se, but they might have a better overall roster. That could be a stretch but I'm backing Sam Darnold in a revenge game after Baker Mayfield ruined one of his early season starts last year.
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