The Titans are on a four-game winning streak, but they've hardly been impressive against lesser teams. The Steelers tried to lay an egg against the Colts and barely stole a victory, but they are a much better team at home. It's time to feed Le'Veon Bell and then take a few play-action shots against a team that struggles badly to defend the pass. This feels like an "oh yeah, the Steelers are really good" game.
The Pick: Steelers -7
Credit: USATSI
Jaguars (-7.5) at Browns
This line is moving in a weird way, which is a little unnerving. But I can't take the Browns here, not when there's a chance that Blake Bortles could play well early (like he did against the Chargers) and then allow the defense to pin its ears back against DeShone Kizer while Leonard Fournette salts the game away. Maybe the Browns backdoor this. Maybe they win it outright. The Jags are the better team though.
The Pick: Jaguars -7.5
Credit: USATSI
Redskins (+8.5) at Saints
Not the best spot in the world to be desperate, but the Redskins need to win now and they happen to be headed for New Orleans. Good luck with that. The Saints are rolling. But desperation is a funny thing in the NFL, and we've seen plenty of weirder things happen. The Redskins are a better team than they're given credit for and perhaps the best quarterback the Saints defense has seen in a few games. They'll keep this close enough to cover.
The Pick: Redskins +7.5
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Chiefs (-10.5) at Giants
This is an absurd number and it has been moving down. A bunch actually, since it opened up at 12. I wouldn't take this now -- wait and see if the number moves. But in my office pick 'em pools, there is zero chance I'm backing the quitting Giants against Andy Reid off a bye. The Chiefs might only win by 10. Or they might go to New York and win by 30 like the Rams did two weeks ago.
The Pick: Chiefs -10.5
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Vikings (-2.5) vs. Rams
The Rams are receiving the proper amount of respect here, given that they have played some exceptional football, but the Vikings might just be better than most people think. The offense has some serious players, including Adam Thielen, who should be closer to a household name if only for his celebration skills. Case Keenum is playing well and this defense could slow down the vaunted Rams offense.
The Pick: Vikings -2.5
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Packers (+2.5) vs. Ravens
The matchup against a dangerous defense is a little unnerving, especially with the Packers missing a few running backs. It might be Jamaal Williams' time to shine, however, and it's possible that Brett Hundley continues to develop a little bit for the Packers. This just feels like a similar situation to playing the Bears, except the difference will be the Packers getting to play at home.
The Pick: Packers +2.5
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Dolphins (-2.5) vs. Buccaneers
Please don't make me watch one minute of this game. Please. It won't be good -- the Dolphins are coming off a beatdown at the hand of the Panthers and yet somehow find themselves favored against Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buccaneers. Gross. Give me the Dolphins because their defense can slow down Tampa. And Jay Cutler will do some stuff. Or something.
The Pick: Dolphins -2.5
Credit: USATSI
Lions (-2.5) at Bears
The Bears might be a sneaky good play at this point, given they were big favorites against the Packers last week and have played well at home. But the Lions have traveled well defensively inside the division and could badly use a win here if they want to stay in the hunt for an NFC playoff spot. Golden Tate has been playing good football lately and the Bears should struggle to score here.
The Pick: Lions -2.5
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Texans (+1.5) vs. Cardinals
Tom Savage is terrible and the Cardinals could nullify DeAndre Hopkins with Patrick Peterson. But the Texans can play decent run defense and bottle up Adrian Peterson, forcing Drew Stanton to throw the ball a bunch. Or Blaine Gabbert. Whatever the case, give me the home dog in this situation, as the Cardinals probably should not be favored in this spot.
The Pick: Texans +1.5
Credit: Kelvin Kuo / USA TODAY Sports
Chargers (-3.5) vs. Bills
I reserve the right to change this pick in the event that Philip Rivers, who is currently in the concussion protocol, does not play against the Bills. I'm not backing Kellen Clemens as a favorite and neither should you. On the other hand, I would back Clemens as a dog here, I think. The Chargers can run and play defense and steal a win here. But they really need Rivers to play.
The Pick: Chargers (-3.5)
Credit: USATSI
Bengals (+2.5) at Broncos
I have personally given up on believing in the Bengals as a decent and/or functional team. This is not a great spot for them, with Denver potentially able to limit A.J. Green, who quietly went off last week. But the Broncos are going to start Brock Osweiler again, and that has not worked out well for them. I will continue to fade him and hope that Vontaze Burfict can stop the Broncos from running the ball.
The Pick: Bengals +2.5
Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel / USA TODAY Sports
Patriots (-6.5) vs. Raiders
Big spread but not really when you consider it's a neutral field situation. The Patriots are a better team, with a better offense and a defense that's starting to come around. Tom Brady is going to dial up a couple of deep balls to Brandin Cooks and then dump off roughly 100 passes to Rex Burkhead, James White and Dion Lewis. The Raiders are dangerous but this one could get ugly in Mexico City.
The Pick: Patriots -6.5
Credit: David Butler II / USA TODAY Sports
Eagles (-3.5) at Cowboys
Not the sharp side here and you can bet almost everyone is going to be picking the Eagles in this spot after the Cowboys got hammered by the Falcons defense. Not going to fall for the thing where I pick against the better team coming off the bye. If Tyron Smith can't go for Dallas, the Eagles could romp here thanks to Fletcher Cox and Co. getting in Dak Prescott's kitchen.
The Pick: Eagles -3.5
Credit: USATSI
Falcons (+3) at Seahawks
Another matchup where it feels a little concerning to take the team everyone will be watching from a public standpoint. But the Falcons are getting three points against a Seahawks team that just lost Richard Sherman, might not have Earl Thomas and could be battling without Kam Chancellor. If the Legion of Boom isn't playing, I'm not sure how the Seahawks are slowing down Julio Jones in this one.
