The Bills are the better team in this situation, no doubt. They are playing well and just traded for Kelvin Benjamin. But the Jets have been able to cover and/or come close to covering the last month or so. They should have covered against Atlanta but for some sloppy, rain-filled mistakes. They're playing hard and know how big this game could be for them to win on a primetime stage.
The Pick: Jets +3.5
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Titans (-3.5) vs. Ravens
Basically guessing on the line here at Titans -3.5 because the Joe Flacco situation leaves things pretty confusing on this front. Vegas hasn't set a line yet with the quarterback situation in flux. Give me the Titans coming off a bye against a Ravens defense that looked good but had too easy of an opponent. The Titans offensive line can hold up here and Derrick Henry can grind out yards.
The Pick: Titans -3.5
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Giants (+3.5) vs. Rams
The Rams are coming off a bye week after blanking the terrible Cardinals. They are capable of thrashing bad teams and the Giants are probably a bad team. They definitely have a bad offense, but this is about a half point too much. The Giants are coming off a bye too and know this is a must-win situation. They've got to salvage some pride and this could be a sloppy type of game. Give me the dog at home.
The Pick: Giants +3.5
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Bengals (+4.5) vs. Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars look great and are a dangerous defensive team. They should be getting Leonard Fournette back for this game. The Bengals barely beat the Colts! That makes this an easy pick -- take the Bengals and the points and hopefully it gets all the way up to like six points. I'm not sure Andy Dalton is going to have a big day through the air, but I am confident that Joe Mixon can get loose on the ground and the Bengals defense can turn Blake Bortles over.
The Pick: Bengals +4.5
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Panthers (-1.5) vs. Falcons
Huge game in the NFC South here. The Falcons have been fighting to stay in the race and the Panthers are an absolute rollercoaster. They even mixed things up midweek -- Marty Hurney traded Kelvin Benjamin to the Buffalo Bills before the trade deadline. This line implies the Falcons would be a 4.5-point favorite in Atlanta and I don't think that offense is good enough to put away the Panthers that easy. Give me the short favorite.
The Pick: Panthers -1.5
Credit: Kim Klement / USA TODAY Sports
Eagles (-8) vs. Broncos
This is a lot of points to lay against a team with a good defense in Denver. The Broncos bottled up the Chiefs for a large portion of Monday night's game. But now they're on a short week and traveling east to play a team that just acquired another physical running back. The Eagles defense could have a field day against new Broncos starter Brock Osweiler.
The Pick: Eagles -8
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Saints (-7) vs. Buccaneers
It's been a while since we had that "monster Drew Brees game" and we're probably due. What better time than against the Buccaneers, a defense that has struggled badly to really slow down anyone on offense. The Panthers looked bad against the Bucs but that was more a byproduct of Carolina being dysfunctional. New Orleans should be able to turn over Jameis Winston and potentially score against him too. The backdoor is scary though.
The Pick: Saints -7
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Colts (+13) at Texans
The Texans have been a pleasant surprise this season against the number, going 5-2 through their first seven games. They are just 3-4, although this is a scenario where they are likely to go to 4-4 with a win over Colts, who are playing back-to-back road games. The problem here is that 13 points is just too big a number to not take the points in a game that could end up being a close shootout. Jacoby Brissett can keep things close here.
The Pick: Colts +13
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49ers (+2) vs. Cardinals
This game will not feature Jimmy Garoppolo, unless something really surprising happens, which could mean the Cardinals have a pretty good chance of pulling off the upset on the ro -- wait, what? The Cardinals are FAVORED in this game? That is craziness. Arizona hasn't looked good and is starting Drew Stanton. Even if the 49ers are winless they should not be underdogs here. Take the points.
The Pick: 49ers +2
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Seahawks (-7) vs. Redskins
Man this is a bunch of points to lay against a competent Washington team. But the injury report for the Redskins is terrifying. I want to reserve the right to flip this if Washington ends up being healthy by the end of the week, but a second-string offensive line going up against the Seahawks defense on the road is a scary proposition for Kirk Cousins. Russell Wilson and the offense are starting to get rolling for Seattle, too.
The Pick: Seahawks -7
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Chiefs (pick 'em) vs. Cowboys
The Chiefs aren't favored on the road, yet. But in a game where the Cowboys will be missing Ezekiel Elliott (it's almost all but official at this point) and trying to figure out the running game with either Alfred Morris or Darren McFadden, I'll take the team that looked great on Monday night knowing a win gives it an advantage over the Patriots and Steelers in the AFC race for the top seed. Kareem Hunt should get going here against the Cowboys defense.
The Pick: Chiefs pick 'em
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Dolphins (+3) vs. Raiders
Taking the Dolphins here MAKES NO SENSE. They just traded away one of their best offensive weapons in Jay Ajayi and now cannot possibly have a running game. The Raiders are a dangerous offensive team. This is a pure bet on Adam Gase, who has done a good job inspiring his team by shipping out malcontents in the past. The Dolphins are desperate and in a corner and need to win in prime time at home.
The Pick: Dolphins +3
Credit: USATSI
Packers (+3) vs. Lions
Monday night on the FROZEN TUNDRA? Give me Aaron Jones and the Packers to sneak one out coming out of the bye after a brutal loss for the Lions at home to the Steelers, in which they failed to capitalize on red-zone opportunities. Brett Hundley is going to be in a big spot here, needing to play well, but the Packers have had a bye week and Mike McCarthy had to have cooked something up. Prime time dogs please.
