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[Mar 25, 2026 at 12:03 pm ET · Jacob Fetner]

Market Total: 7.5 (model projects lower scoring early)

This game profiles as a low‑volatility first inning matchup, driven primarily by strong starting pitching and a suppressive offensive environment. The model lands near neutral overall, with NRFI slightly favored, but not enough to generate a playable edge without a favorable market number.

Pitching Sets the Tone Early

Both starters bring strong first‑inning profiles. Logan Webb has been particularly reliable at home, owning a 77.8% NRFI rate overall, a 90% NRFI rate over his last 10 starts, and an 80% NRFI rate at Oracle Park. His underlying metrics support that stability — elite command, low walk rate, strong contact management, and a first‑inning WHIP well below league average. Webb doesn't give hitters many early free passes, which is critical against a Yankees lineup that can punish mistakes but is far less efficient when forced to put balls in play.

On the other side, Max Fried is less dominant early than Webb but still solid. He sits at a 67.6% NRFI rate since last season and maintains essentially the same success rate on the road. While Fried's recent stretch has been shakier (60% NRFI over his last 10), his control remains strong, and his first‑inning damage has mostly come via isolated extra‑base hits rather than sustained rallies.

Lineup Context: One Threat, One Neutral

From a lineup perspective, the Yankees are the larger YRFI risk, carrying a 39.5% first‑inning scoring rate.  However, that upside is partially muted by Webb's home splits and elite strike‑throwing..
San Francisco presents less early danger. Their first‑inning scoring rate against left‑handed pitching sits below league average.

Final Model Read
The model lands at:

• YRFI: 46.7% (-114)
• NRFI: 53.3% (+114)

[Mar 25, 2026 at 11:56 am ET · Jacob Fetner]

Trent Grisham (NYY) +625, BetMGM

Grisham offers solid value today thanks to a favorable platoon matchup and road splits. He bats left‑handed against right‑hander Logan Webb, a pitcher who has been notably more vulnerable to lefties than righties. Grisham owns a strong .859 OPS against right‑handed pitching this season with 27 home runs, while Webb has allowed a .763 OPS to left‑handed hitters.
The road environment also works in Grisham's favor. He hit 21 homers in 75 road games last season compared to just 13 at home. carry. The home run index is an 8 our of 10 making it a strong day for HRs in San Francisco despite playing in a pitcher friendly park.

We set Trent Grisham's line at +406 to homer.

Willy Adames (SF) +700, DraftKings

Adames is a value play driven more by pitcher splits and price than raw matchup dominance. He gets left‑hander Max Fried, who has shown a significant home/road split this season. Fried allows nearly double the home runs per nine innings on the road, and today's start comes away from his strongest environment.
While Adames' OPS against left‑handed pitching sits around league average, he still produced 10 home runs in 180 plate appearances vs LHP last season. Adames is 2-6 with two extra base hits and just one strikeout in his career against Fried.

We set Willy Adames's line at +478 to homer.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) +730, DraftKings

Jazz stands out as one of the strongest pure value spots on the board. He draws the platoon advantage against Logan Webb and has consistently done his damage against right‑handed pitching, posting a .832 OPS with 26 home runs in that split this season. Webb, meanwhile, has allowed significantly more power to left‑handed hitters than righties.
Like Grisham, Jazz has 6 times over his last 20 road games dating back to last season.

We set Jazz Chisholm's line at +387 to homer.

[Mar 9, 2026 at 11:53 am ET · Jacob Fetner]

Michigan (33.7%) enters with the best chance to cut down the nets in Chicago with a title matchup between the second-highest projected winner Illinois (20.3%). Purdue knocks out 2-seed Nebraska in its first game.

[Mar 9, 2026 at 11:50 am ET · Jacob Fetner]

The model has Houston (32.8%) as the favorite in Kansas City, with a projected title matchup against Arizona. Colorado gets the upset over TCU and Cincy beats UCF in the second round.

[Mar 9, 2026 at 11:45 am ET · Jacob Fetner]

The simulations project a title matchup between St. John's and UConn at Madison Square Garden with the Huskies (53.2%) taking care of business.

[Mar 9, 2026 at 11:39 am ET · Jacob Fetner]

The simulations give Florida (35.1%) the best chance to cut down the nets in Nashville, with a title game matchup against Vanderbilt. Notably, Auburn gets bounced by Tennessee in the second round and misses out on March.

[Mar 9, 2026 at 11:34 am ET · Jacob Fetner]

The model gives Duke the highest title probability entering the week at 47.9%, with Virginia projected as the championship opponent. Louisville gets the biggest upset over Miami in the quarterfinals.

[Mar 9, 2026 at 11:30 am ET · Inside the Lines Team]

Here's where the CBS Sports Bracketology team currently projects the ACC in the NCAA Tournament field ahead of Championship Week.

[Mar 9, 2026 at 11:28 am ET · Inside the Lines Team]

Heading into Kansas City, here's where CBS Sports Bracketology projects the conference in the NCAA Tournament field.

[Mar 9, 2026 at 11:27 am ET · Inside the Lines Team]

With the conference tournament set for Indianapolis, here's where CBS Sports Bracketology projects Big Ten teams in the NCAA Tournament field.

[Mar 9, 2026 at 11:25 am ET · Inside the Lines Team]

Ahead of crowning a champion in Nashville at the SEC Tournament, here are the teams CBS Sports Bracketology projects to be in the Big Dance.

[Feb 9, 2026 at 12:54 pm ET · Jacob Fetner]

CBS Sports Bracketology uses committee selection tendencies and historical seeding logic to project the final seeding for March Madness. If the college basketball season ended today, this is how the model projects the NCAA Tournament to play out.

[Jan 27, 2026 at 1:01 pm ET · Inside the Lines Team]

Our model gives Seattle Seahawks a narrow Super Bowl edge, projecting a 24–19 win driven by advantages through the air and in the trenches. Seattle is projected to outgain New England in passing yards (+26) while also creating more pressure, with a +1.4 sack edge that tilts the defensive matchup.

From a betting perspective, that projected 5-point margin makes Seahawks -4.5 fairly priced with limited value. Where the model really points is the under, as both defenses generate pressure and limit explosive plays.

[Feb 3, 2026 at 10:13 pm ET · Stephen Oh]

James Harden will inevitably have a 50 point triple double in his first week with the Cavaliers but we all know how this will end. A 3-19 game in the deciding game of a 7 game series preceded by a 6-18 game with the Cavs up 3-2 in the series.

The Clippers got considerably better with Darius Garland. The Cavaliers got worse with James Harden.

The last 2 seasons the Cavs won 71.7% of the 106 games Garland played (including playoffs). James Harden has been very durable, only really missing games when he is demanding a trade and the Clippers did win 56.9% of his 130 games played vs just going 2-6 without him.

The most impressive thing about Harden is he will make 35% of very difficult shots that the average player would make 15% of the time. But he ends up taking too many super difficult shots which is why he is shooting under 35% from 3pt range. Garland may not be able to make the behind the back dribble 10 times step back three from 30 feet but ultimately if you give him 6 3pt attempts he'll make 2 or 3 percentage points more than Harden will.

LA CLIPPERS	PROJ WINS	WIN%	PLAYOFF	WIN CONF	CHAMP	REM WIN%
w/ Harden	42.3	51.5%	43.0%	1.37%	0.41%	58.3%
w/ Garland	43.7	53.3%	56.7%	3.68%	1.55%	62.9%
Difference	1.5	1.8%	13.7%	2.31%	1.14%	4.6%
CLEVELAND	PROJ WINS	WIN%	PLAYOFF	WIN CONF	CHAMP	REM WIN%
w/ Garland	49.7	60.6%	99.5%	13.79%	4.36%	63.6%
w/ Harden	48.0	58.5%	97.7%	6.39%	1.18%	58.2%
Difference	-1.7	-2.1%	-1.8%	-7.40%	-3.18%	-5.4%

[Feb 3, 2026 at 4:01 pm ET · Stephen Oh]

The Celtics clearly want to compete for a championship even if Jayson Tatum isn't available. They can get their chemistry with Vucevic this season and then worst-case scenario have another great chance next season. The Bulls want to rebuild and the upcoming super talented draft is a good start. 

The model sees a real improvement from Boston and an expected drop-off from Chicago this season.

Over the last 2 seasons the Bulls have actually had a better win% (54.5%) and point differential (-0.6) in games where Vucevic did not play than in games he did play (46.7%, -2.3 pt diff) but this 1.6 pt difference is based on a small sample size of just 11 games without him and 122 with him.

Vucevic IS NOT a shot blocker like Porzingis was but he's a lot more durable and available. Like Porzingis and Al Horford, he provides the Celtics with efficient shooting on two's (57.9%), great 3pt shooting (39.2%) and nearly 10 rebounds per game. His lack of defense compared to good defensive bigs is why Chicago wasn't better with him than without but considering Boston only lost Anfernee Simons, it's not like he's going to make Boston's defense worse. 

BOSTON	PROJ WINS	WIN%	PLAYOFF	WIN CONF	CHAMP	REM WIN%
w/ Simons	52.0	63.4%	100.0%	24.01%	8.94%	63.6%
w/ Vucevic	54.4	66.3%	100.0%	34.46%	15.53%	70.8%
Difference	2.4	2.9%	0.0%	10.45%	6.59%	7.2%
CHICAGO	PROJ WINS	WIN%	PLAYOFF	WIN CONF	CHAMP	REM REC
w/ Vucevic	36.7	44.8%	11.3%	0.02%	0.00%	39.6%
w/ Simons	34.3	41.8%	2.6%	0.00%	0.00%	38.8%
Difference	-2.4	-2.9%	-8.7%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.8%

[Feb 3, 2026 at 2:41 pm ET · Stephen Oh]

Jaden Ivey may have more 'star' potential, but adding a proven vet in Kevin Huerter who doesn't need the ball in his hand to contribute definitely helps Detroit improve on their East leading % chance to win the conference and the championship.

The sample size is small, but since last season in 114 games Kevin Huerter played his team won 54.4% of games with a +1.2 point differential. In the 17 games he missed they won 23.5% with a -11.6 point differential. Obviously this drop off is basically a Nikola Jokic level difference that reflects small sample size more than actual value, but it's still pretty compelling that a below .500 Bulls team in each of the last 2 seasons was a winning team when Huerter played.

Same can't be said about Jaden Ivey. The Pistons won 58.7% of 63 games with a +3.1 pt diff with Ivey and 61.6% of 73 games with a +4.4 pt differential without Ivey.

DETROIT	PROJ WINS	WIN%	PLAYOFF	WIN CONF	CHAMP	REM WIN%
Before Trade	57.2	69.7%	100.0%	32.04%	12.39%	62.2%
After Trade	57.6	70.2%	100.0%	33.15%	14.30%	63.5%
Difference	0.4	0.5%	0.0%	1.11%	1.91%	1.3%
CHICAGO	PROJ WINS	WIN%	PLAYOFF	WIN CONF	CHAMP	REM REC
Before Trade	37.6	45.9%	16.7%	0.04%	0.00%	42.5%
After Trade	36.7	44.8%	11.3%	0.02%	0.00%	39.6%
Difference	-0.9	-1.1%	-5.4%	0.0%	0.0%	-2.9%

[Feb 3, 2026 at 2:11 pm ET · Stephen Oh]

For this Memphis and Utah trade neither team improved the rest of this season. For Memphis it was expected (and probably hoped for) that they get worse. But for Utah the slightly lower 23.8% rest of season win% vs the 25.8% they were at this morning is probably not what they were hoping for. 

UTAH	PROJ WINS	WIN%	PLAYOFF	REM REC	REM WIN%
Before Trade	23.2	28.3%	0.0%	8.2 - 23.8	25.8%
After Trade	22.6	27.6%	0.0%	7.6 - 24.4	23.8%
Difference	-0.6	-0.8%	0.0%		-2.0%
MEMPHIS	PROJ WINS	WIN%	PLAYOFF	REM REC	REM WIN%
Before Trade	33.4	40.8%	2.0%	14.4 - 19.6	42.4%
After Trade	32.2	39.3%	1.2%	13.2 - 20.8	38.9%
Difference	-1.2	-1.5%	-0.8%		-3.5%

I looked at how Memphis did in games Jaren Jackson played vs when he didn't play. Even though he was a former DPOY the team actually allowed fewer pts per game (111.8) when he didn't play vs the 115.9 they allowed when he did play. Opposing teams shot 53.3% from 2pt range vs Memphis when he played vs just 50.7% when he didn't play.

His presence helped Memphis average +5.3 more points when he played (114.5) than when he didn't (109.2). So it looks like without him Memphis' offense is hurt which is why they win less. At the same time, Utah's defense doesn't improve because Jackson's sub 6.0 rebounding average doesn't help them improve on the defensive boards and his shot blocking doesn't actually translate to reduced 2pt FG% from opponents.

[Feb 2, 2026 at 11:18 am ET · Inside the Lines Team]

Here's a snapshot of CBS Sports Bracketology's projected NCAA Tournament seeds across every multi-bid conference, based on committee tendencies and historical seeding logic. From projected No. 1 seeds at the top to teams fighting to stay in the field, this is how the bracket would shape up if Selection Sunday were today.

[Jan 24, 2026 at 9:25 am ET · Mackenzie Brooks]

Arizona checks every box of the modern national title formula — elite defense, elite offense, early-season respect — the only thing they'd be breaking is geography. A West Coast team trying to snap a 25-year championship trend.

[Jan 28, 2026 at 5:01 pm ET · Taft Gantt]

The PGA Tour heads to Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open. Taft Gantt uses course history, Strokes Gained metrics, and recent PGA Tour results to identify the best betting value this week -- Jason Day 33-1, Maverick McNealy 33-1, Ryan Gerard 43-1, and Will Zalatoris 47-1.

[Jan 27, 2026 at 11:03 am ET · Inside the Lines Team]

CBS Sports Bracketology projects clear separation in both SEC games Tuesday. Alabama's offensive efficiency and shot-making create a strong edge over Missouri, while Vanderbilt's scoring margin and interior efficiency give them control against Kentucky. Both games carry real seeding implications, and performances tonight will matter when the committee stacks SEC contenders in March.