Circling the Bases is our Fantasy Baseball expert column, full of insider information, advice and in-depth analysis. Every Wednesday year-round, Tristan H. Cockcroft provides an array of preseason draft strategy, regular-season coverage and offseason player analysis.

The 2003 Fantasy Baseball season is in its final days, and the few remaining owners in contention for a league title are crossing their fingers, hoping for some last-minute fireworks. But even though we'll close the book on another year this weekend, that doesn't mean you should make 2003 a distant memory, and quickly turn your attention to Fantasy Football or Hockey.

There are always several important lessons to be learned from your performance each year. Whether you wrapped up your league's title weeks ago or finished in the cellar, you surely learned a few important things from your exploits. Here are just some of the important lessons we learned from the 2003 baseball season:

ALWAYS GET A CLOSER'S BACKUP as insurance. Those Fantasy owners who had Armando Benitez, Ugueth Urbina, Mike Williams or Scott Williamson certainly learned this around the All-Star break. It's not a lesson designed to teach you to avoid closers entirely, but rather one that makes it imperative you listen to trade rumors surrounding your save-getters, and prepare for when they might lose their jobs.

Those who protected their Draft Day closer investments this year by getting the next-most-likely save option were rewarded with such finds as Francisco Cordero, Tom Gordon and Cliff Politte. They might also have taken a flier on relievers who eventually became top save options, like Rocky Biddle, Joe Borowski and Tim Worrell.

Never stand pat with the closers you have, because you never know when injuries or an ill-timed trade might strike. Of the 30 teams in the major leagues, only four -- Houston (Billy Wagner), Los Angeles ( Eric Gagne), Minnesota (Eddie Guardado) and Oakland (Keith Foulke ) -- haven't endured an injury or job controversy with their closers heading into Wednesday's games.

CONTRACT YEARS mean everything. Whether thoughts of impending free agency get into a player's head (Miguel Tejada) or inspire him to explode for career years (Javy Lopez, Sidney Ponson and Gary Sheffield), this season has proven the notion that you must be aware of players who are in the "walk" years of their deals. It might seem like baseball players play their hearts out every day regardless of their contract situation, but it's only human nature that people step things up when financial reward is in their future.

Even if you point out that two of the biggest free-agent names this winter, Tejada and Vladimir Guerrero, were Fantasy disappointments, it's worth noting that both players significantly picked up the pace during the season's second half, perhaps helped by thoughts of cashing in during the offseason. You can also throw in Foulke, Livan Hernandez and Andy Pettitte among this year's prospective free agents who enjoyed big years.

If you want a leg up on 2004's walk-year players, here are some of the big names who may hit the market: Carlos Beltran, Eric Chavez, Nomar Garciaparra, Pedro Martinez, Javier Vazquez, Mariano Rivera, Curt Schilling and Kerry Wood.

BILL JAMES AND BILLY BEANE know their stuff. The James strategy to formulating a better bullpen might have failed under rookie Red Sox GM Theo Epstein's watch early this year, but the team's revamped offense was easily the best in the AL. And in Oakland, Beane's A's keep winning even after losing free agents Ray Durham, Jason Giambi and Jason Isringhausen the past few years.

It's all a testament to the statistically driven approach to analyzing players, developed by James and put into place by Beane in the late 1990s. Everything that the duo, as well as Beane protégé J.P. Ricciardi in Toronto, touches seems to turns gold, especially on the hitting side. If it's a foreign concept for you, you have a winter reading assignment; pick up Moneyball by Michael Lewis and familiarize yourself with one of Fantasy Baseball's most essential new books.

And if you hear rumblings that Boston, Oakland or Toronto is after that no-name you didn't think would ever amount to anything, take a flier. You might land yourself the next Bill Mueller or David Ortiz. If you don't, you might be next year's George Steinbrenner, spending the waning weeks of the season insisting you "instructed your staff" to get Ortiz at the draft table in March.

PATIENCE COUNTS. This goes hand-in-hand with the previous lesson, because working counts, improving plate discipline and boosting on-base percentage are now considered essential traits in players. The statistics back the notion that the best on-base specialists are usually the best hitters: Fifteen players have posted an OBP greater than .400, and only two -- Lance Berkman (.287-24-91) and Larry Walker (.281-15-77) -- won't reach at least one of the .300-average, 30-homer or 100-RBI plateaus.

Further browsing the numbers, of the top 10 players in batting average, homers or RBI this season, Garret Anderson (.314-29-116) has the lowest OBP (.343). He's mentioned by some as an AL MVP candidate and is hardly a free-swinging, strikeout machine, with an above-average one whiff per 7.6 at-bats. Those stats alone show how the more patient hitter, not the Rob Deer or Gorman Thomas softball-style swinger of the 1980s, is the prototypical 21st-century baseball superstar.

MANAGERS MAKE a difference. The NFL isn't the only place where the man pulling the strings has an influence on the performance on the field. Baseball skippers like the Cubs' Dusty Baker, Florida's Jack McKeon and Kansas City's Tony Pena were great examples how the right man can make for a bright full-year outlook for his team. It should come as no surprise that Kansas City (20) and the Cubs (18) represented the two teams that improved the most in the win column this season. And in McKeon's case, the Marlins are an inspired 71-48 under his watchful eye, a big improvement over Jeff Torborg's 16-22 model.

On the other hand, the White Sox's Jerry Manuel and Philadelphia's Larry Bowa seemed to lose their players' attention early in the season, a large reason why the teams were somewhat of a disappointment. Neither manager appears likely to return, and their examples show why you shouldn't expect miracle turnarounds when a longer-tenured manager continues to keep his job over a team that has clearly lost its focus.

GRAB THOSE FLASHY rookie pitchers. This might not be a lesson learned exclusively this season, as many rookie pitchers have historically overmatched opposing hitters who are unfamiliar with their pitch selection. But this year, Arizona's Brandon Webb and Florida's Dontrelle Willis, Fantasy Baseball's two best rookie pitchers, shared one common trait: A pitch or pitching style that was deceptive to hitters.

In Webb's case, it was his devastating sinker, one that even drew high praise from Braves manager Bobby Cox, a guy who knows a little something about great pitchers. In Willis' case, it was his funky delivery that made it difficult for batters to pick up the ball at the release point. Adjustment period or not, when a rookie pitcher comes up from the minors and has one such trait that will delay scouts identifying their weaknesses, they're excellent Fantasy investments.

ONE-TRICK PONIES are useful again. It used to be in this game that you should never draft the player who only gets you stolen bases or saves. Just five years ago, most experts would have advised against overspending on Tom Goodwin or Brian L. Hunter, players who offered nothing but steals to a Fantasy team. But in today's game, one where many managers fear the stolen base and shuffle several relievers into the closer's role, those one-category players are suddenly a lot more important to own.

Juan Pierre, for instance, pretty much guaranteed his Fantasy owners of leading or contending for the lead in the steals category single-handedly, and he was solid in batting average as well. Considering that only five players -- all one-category types, Pierre, Carl Crawford, Alex Sanchez, Scott Podsednik and Dave Roberts -- topped the 40-steal plateau, it's suddenly more important that you invest in one steals-only guy to ensure you contend in the category. Keep in mind that just one player, Alfonso Soriano, went 30/30 this season, and only five more went 20/20. That suggests spending for a five-category player might be a far more expensive proposition than just getting one guy to help in steals in future years.

In saves, no one will finish even close to Eric Gagne, who has a shot at breaking Bobby Thigpen's single-season record for saves. John Smoltz was on pace for a second straight 50-save season before his elbow injury, and Foulke, Guardado, Wagner and Rivera are always reliable save options. With all the uncertainty surrounding closers these days, sometimes it's comforting to know you have one of the game's best.

DON'T FEAR the part-time catcher. It's always difficult to find a reliable backstop on Draft Day, but you can always count on one or two players getting in enough games behind the plate to be worth using as your No. 2 catcher. This year, Matt LeCroy and Craig Wilson were two such finds. Even though neither played on a daily basis, they still did enough with the at-bats they received to be at least as useful as most catchers who did play regularly. Which would you rather have had this season, part-timers LeCroy (.281-17-62-0) or Wilson (.265-17-47-3), or an everyday man like Toby Hall (.255-12-46-0)?

WAIVER TRADES do happen. In the past, post-July 31 trade deadline deals were a rarity. But after San Diego got saddled with Randy Myers' contract at the 1998 deadline trying to block his potential move to rival Atlanta, it served as an example to other teams not to be so hasty making waiver claims of high-priced players to block August deals. That's why Brian Giles and Jeff Conine slipped through the cracks this August, accommodating their trades to San Diego and Florida. In today's financial landscape, such deals might become more commonplace, and it's important to remember that as you budget your free-agent resources (FAAB, for instance) in AL- or NL-only leagues in 2004.

LABR Update: For those interested in this year's race, Team SportsLine.com has started rising up the standings once more, moving back to second place, just four points behind "regular guy" Mark Allen. Ugueth Urbina's move into the closer role for the Marlins has helped bolster a bullpen that badly needs a big week in saves to make up one point. While a repeat at this point seems unlikely, more big nights from players like Jeff Conine and Julio Lugo might make for an interesting final weekend.

Want to give your opinion or ask a question? E-mail your Fantasy Baseball comments and questions to Tristan H. Cockcroft at bleacher@commissioner.com. Be sure to put Attn: Tristan in the subject field, and include your full name and hometown. Please be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee responses to all questions.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is the 2002 National League champion of the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR).