Roto Analyst: To catch a thief
Getting ahead in steals isn't as easy as it used to be. Long gone are the days when players frequently stole bases. Gaining the services of a top base stealer is difficult. Gambling on a risky player like Roger Cedeno is a good strategy.
In order to remain successful in the steals category, you must stay one step ahead of your competitors. If you don't have the money or the draft positioning to nab a top base stealer, take a chance on a player that has a lot of promise or potential in the category. .
The top two base stealers in the major leagues last season were the Marlins' Luis Castillo (48) and then-Rockies outfielder Juan Pierre (47). Now that they are on the same team, opponents will set game plans geared to keep these two from running. It will be difficult, but expect both players to produce similar totals this season. Their services will be in high demand, so prepare to spend a lot of money on them in auctions, especially in NL-only leagues. Castillo might cost you between $25-32 while Pierre's price might reach as high as $25. Getting one of these two players should allow you to remain competitive in the steals category, but don't spend too much for them or draft them in the first round. There are other alternatives.
Teammate Andy Fox is a good solution. Fox stole 31 bases last season, even though he was used mostly as a utility player. He is slated to be the backup shortstop this season, behind incumbent Alex Gonzalez . However, Gonzalez is recovering from a dislocated shoulder and a torn labrum. There is a chance that Fox might push Gonzalez for the starting job, especially if Gonzalez doesn't make a full recovery. Fox is too risky to use in mixed leagues, but is worth a flier in NL-only leagues. He could provide you with at least 20 steals this season.
Another NL East player who might be a good source of steals is the Mets' Roger Cedeno. He had 55 steals in 2001, but struggled to get on base last season and finished with only 25. Improved hitting may very well help Cedeno re-emerge as one of the best thieves in the game. Consider taking a chance on Cedeno if you can get him for less than $5. Cedeno isn't the only veteran whose steals might increase drastically through better hitting.
Milwaukee infielder Eric Young stole 31 bases and finished with a .280 batting average in 2002. Young stole 11 bases in the first two months of the season, but only hit .222. Young might steal 40 bases this season if he can get off to a hot start in April. Prepare to spend between $10-12 for Young in an NL-only league.
Outfielders Gary Matthews Jr. and Chris Singleton could be useful sources of steals in the AL. Singleton stole 20 bases as a part-time player for Baltimore last season. He is slated to be the A's starting centerfielder this season and should get more than the 466 at-bats he had last season. Added at-bats might result in about 30 steals for Singleton this season.
Matthews stole 15 bases in 344 at-bats for Baltimore last season. He is projected to be the Orioles' starting centerfielder and might also approach the 30-steals plateau. Singleton and Matthews are worth a flier in AL-only leagues
Rookies
The list of rookie with potential in this category is short. Players like Marlon Byrd (Philadelphia), Jose Reyes (New York Mets) and Joe Thurston (Los Angeles Dodgers) have the best chance to make an impact in the steals category. Byrd is one of the top hitting prospects in baseball. The centerfielder has the potential to be a 30-home run, 30-steals player. Byrd won't reach such lofty expectations this season, but might steal approximately 15 bases and provide a similar total in the homer category. He will have a high demand in NL-only leagues, but try not to spend more than $10 for him.
Thurston also has the potential to steal 30 bases and provide some power, but is not as highly regarded as Byrd. The second baseman was only recently given a chance to make the opening day roster. Thurston has the potential to also hit for power, but can probably be had in most leagues for less than $5. Reyes' chances of making the opening day roster are gradually declining now that he is struggling with a thigh injury that has kept him out of exhibition games. There is still a good chance that Reyes will be called up at some point if he doesn't make the opening day roster. The shortstop might steal approximately 10 bases if he does make it to the majors, but is a risky player to have on your opening Fantasy roster.
Risky Business
Dodgers outfielder Dave Roberts had the best season of his career in 2002. After being used mostly as a utility player, Roberts took over as the primary leadoff hitter for L.A., hitting .277 and stealing 45 bases. However, it remains to be seen if he can duplicate his success. The Dodgers aren't completely confident in the left-handed hitter's ability to hit left-handed pitching.
Although Roberts did hit .400 (10-for-25) against lefties, the Dodgers avoided such matchups and sat Roberts on most days when the team faced a southpaw. Roberts might struggle to get on base if the team decides to start him against both right-handers and lefties. If the Dodgers decide to sit him against lefties, Roberts might not be able to remain focused through inactivity and could struggle at the plate. Don't hesitate to add Roberts, but try not to spend more than $10 for him.
Another player that might not be as successful on the bases is Seattle outfielder Randy Winn. He batted .298 for Tampa Bay last season and stole a career-high 27 bases. However, he might have a difficult time hitting at his new home park, now that he is a member of the Mariners. Hold off on selecting Winn until the later rounds of a draft and try not to spend more than $8 for him in an auction league.
Aging shortstop Tony Womack is also a bit of a risk in the steals category. Womack has failed to surpass 30 steals in each of the past two seasons after stealing 45 bases in 2000. The 33-year old should steal at least 25 bases this season, but don't be surprised if his total decreases again. Nevertheless, the lack of depth at shortstop makes Womack valuable, even if he isn't the steals threat he once was. Prepare to spend between $15-20 for him in an NL-only league. His cost should be slightly less in mixed leagues.
Veteran Kenny Lofton stole 29 bases last season, but the fact that he is still a free agent makes him a major risk. At age 35, Lofton appears to be in the final stage of his career. Depending on his situation, Lofton is still capable of stealing 20 bases. Don't attempt to add him to your roster until he finds a new team.














