The collapse has been hideous. On June 18, the Seattle Mariners were 44-31 and 10 games up in the AL West. In the two months since, the Mariners are 21-33 and have gone from 10 games up in the division to 5.5 games back. Seattle just concluded a 1-8 road trip and that, apparently, was the final straw. Longtime manager Scott Servais was fired during the team's off-day Thursday. Dan Wilson, a catcher who played 12 years for the Mariners from 1994-2005, was named the new manager.
"We believe that we need a new voice in the clubhouse," GM Jerry Dipoto said in a statement. "Dan knows our team and has been a key member of our organization working with players at every level over the past 11 years. He is well respected within and outside of our clubhouse and we are confident he will do a great job in leading our group over the final six weeks of the season and moving forward. I do want to thank Scott for all his efforts here in Seattle over the past nine seasons. He has poured his passion into the team and our community and I know I speak for the entire Mariners organization in thanking him for his hard work."
Wilson is the new full-time manager. He is not an interim. It's his job moving forward. Wilson was inducted into the Mariners Hall of Fame in 2012 and, in addition to some broadcasting work, he's spent more than a decade holding a variety of on-field roles within the organization. Most recently, he was a special assistant for player development. The Mariners are replacing Servais, a longtime catcher himself, with a grizzled baseball man already familiar with the team and its players.
According to FanGraphs, the Mariners have seen their postseason odds slip from a season-best 91.7% on June 18 to 13.0% entering play Friday. Seattle is 7.5 games behind the third wild-card spot. It is very likely the AL West will send only one team to the postseason this year. To get there, the Mariners will have to overcome the Houston Astros and win the division. Here are five reasons to think Seattle can get their season back on the rails and return to the postseason.
1. The new manager honeymoon
In recent years, we've seen several teams improve their play immediately following a managerial change. The best example is the Philadelphia Phillies, who started 22-29 under Joe Girardi in 2022, changed managers in early June, then went 65-46 under Rob Thomson and won the National League pennant. That same season, the Toronto Blue Jays started 46-42 under Charlie Montoyo, then went 46-28 under John Schneider following a midseason managerial change.
Not every managerial change comes with a sudden improvement -- the 2022 Los Angeles Angels went 27-29 under Joe Maddon, then 46-60 under Phil Nevin -- but it does happen sometimes, sure. The possible reasons are endless. The managerial change hits the players hard and is a wake up call, a new voice better motivates the players, the new manager has better ways to deploy guys on the roster, so on and so forth. The new manager honeymoon is a thing that sometimes happens, and the Mariners need one.
2. Their rotation is so, so good
I imagine it is incredibly frustrating for the Mariners and their fans to know there's no truly elite team in either league (no team is on pace to win more than 96 games) and that if they could just find a way to sneak into the postseason, the Mariners would be as dangerous as anyone. Their rotation, specifically the front four of Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Bryce Miller, is so good. Seattle would have the pitching advantage over almost any team in a short postseason series.
Here are the numbers on the club's starting pitchers coming out of Thursday's off-day:
| Mariners SP | MLB SP average | |
|---|---|---|
IP per G | 5.82 (1st in MLB) | 5.26 |
ERA | 3.32 (1st in MLB) | 4.18 |
FIP | 3.52 (1st in MLB) | 4.17 |
WHIP | 1.04 (1st in MLB) | 1.27 |
K% | 23.1% (8th in MLB) | 21.8% |
BB% | 5.0% (1st in MLB) | 7.6% |
HR/9 | 1.05 (5th in MLB) | 1.22 |
WAR | 13.6 (3rd in MLB) | 8.6 |
That's the entire rotation, too. No. 5 starters, spot starters, everyone. Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby, and Miller are averaging 5.96 innings per start and have combined for 11.8 of that 13.6 WAR. Those four would be Seattle's postseason rotation in whatever order. Get those four guys to October and the Mariners would be really, really dangerous.
With starting pitching like that, you have a chance to win just about every night. The Mariners lost five games by three or fewer runs during that 1-8 road trip. They were in most games. The offense gives them little margin of error -- the Mariners are 27th in runs scored per game -- but the pitching is so good that the Mariners will be in the game most nights. It's arguably the best rotation in baseball, and if Seattle makes a run to the postseason, the starting pitchers figure to be the single biggest reason.
3. Crawford is on his way back
Shortstop J.P. Crawford, the Mariners' unofficial captain, has been out since an errant pitch broke his right hand on July 22. Crawford was having a down year -- .204/.299/.347 with nine home runs in 77 games -- but compared to the guys who've replaced him, he looks like Cal Ripken Jr. Fill-in shortstops Dylan Moore and Leo Rivas are hitting .195 with a ghastly .588 OPS since Crawford last played, plus they've been downgrades defensively.
Good news, though: Crawford has resumed swinging a bat and could begin a minor-league rehab assignment as soon as this weekend, according to My Northwest. He's inching closer to a return. The Mariners start a six-game homestand Friday. Could Crawford join them and then be activated when they head out on their next road trip next Thursday? That's probably the best-case scenario. Point is, Crawford is making progress, and he brings a lot on the field and in the clubhouse. The Mariners need him.
4. The short-term schedule is favorable
On paper, the Mariners have a tougher remaining schedule than the Astros, though the difference is not enormous. FanGraphs says Seattle's remaining opponents have a .504 combined winning percentage. Houston is at .495. That's the difference between an 80-win pace and an 82-win pace, so yeah, not enormous. That's the outlook for the entire rest of the season, though. In the short term, the schedule is advantage Mariners. No wins are guaranteed, of course, but the schedule lines up nicely for Seattle.
The Astros opened a four-game series in Baltimore with the Orioles on Thursday (HOU 6, BAL 0). They'll go to Philadelphia for three games with the Phillies next week, then they'll play four games against Kansas City Royals. The O's and Phillies might be the two best teams in baseball, and the Royals are a hungry team trying to secure a wild-card spot, if not overtake the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central. Also, no off-days. The Astros haven't had an off-day since last Thursday and they won't have another off-day until Sept. 3. That's a lot of games against a lot of good teams with no rest built into the schedule.
The Mariners, meanwhile, are home for three games with the San Francisco Giants and three games with the Tampa Bay Rays starting Friday. They then go out on the road for three with the Angels and four with the Oakland Athletics. Seattle had an off-day Thursday and has another one coming up next Thursday, too. The Giants and Rays aren't pushovers, but compared to what the Astros having coming up, the Mariners have a more favorable schedule. Stack some wins here these next two weeks, and then you can begin to see a path to October.
5. They still have a series left with Houston
From Sept. 23-25 at Minute Maid Park, specifically. That is the second-to-last series of the regular season. The Mariners won two of three in Houston back in May and they are 6-4 against the Astros this season. With one more win head-to-head, the Mariners will hold the tiebreaker, meaning they won't have to finish ahead of the Astros. They would only need to tie them to win the division. The Astros won the AL West last year through the tiebreaker. This isn't some far-fetched possibility.
The Mariners have 34 games remaining. It's not a lot of games in the grand scheme of things, but they have enough time to halt this two-month stretch of wretched play, pile up some wins, and put themselves in a position to take control of the AL West during that penultimate series at Minute Maid Park. That's the goal. Get to within three games of the Astros heading into that series. Do that and the Mariners will control their own destiny in the AL West, mathematically. Going from 10 games up to 5.5 games back is rough. That deficit is not insurmountable though.
