The road to Super Bowl LIX in the AFC takes us to Arrowhead Stadium where the Buffalo Bills will visit their familiar foe in the Kansas City Chiefs. Two teams will step into this manic environment, but only one will emerge as AFC champions and have its ticket punched for New Orleans to play for the Lombardi Trophy.
This is the latest chapter in what has been one of the more compelling rivalries that the NFL has to offer. While Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are both knotted with four wins in their eight career head-to-head matchups, it's been one-sided when this rivalry pivots to the postseason. In those three prior playoff contests, Mahomes is 3-0, so Allen will be looking to get the monkey off of his back with a win on Sunday to advance to his first-ever Super Bowl.
As for Kansas City, it is attempting to become the NFL's first-ever three-peat Super Bowl champion, so the stakes for this conference title game are at a fever pitch.
Of course, these quarterbacks are going to be a key story to focus on in this playoff showdown, but there will also be other factors at play. Below, we'll highlight three key factors that will help determine who'll be crowned champions of the AFC.
1. Will Travis Kelce stay hot?
As Kelce has entered the twilight of his NFL career, he's picked his spots for when to flex his future Hall of Fame ability. Given that you never quite know when a player's star will fade, there's been the question if Kelce could continue to flip the switch. Well, he's answered that question emphatically over the last couple of appearances. In his final regular-season game (Week 17), he caught eight balls for 84 yards and a touchdown against Pittsburgh. Then, he tallied a season-high 117 yards and a touchdown on seven catches against the Texans in the divisional round.
While Kelce has come on, the Bills did a strong job silencing him back in Week 11 where he was held to two catches for 8 yards. On the flip side, Buffalo did just allow Ravens tight ends Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely to combine for nine catches, 134 yards and a touchdown last week. If that's the defensive effort they give on Sunday and Kelce stays hot, he has the capability to wreck the game.
2. Third-down defense
Because the Baltimore Ravens committed three turnovers in the divisional round, Buffalo's poor third-down defense didn't become much of a storyline. That said, Baltimore was able to convert seven of their 10 third-down opportunities in that playoff matchup. The inability to get off the field on this key down has plagued Buffalo throughout the season. Overall, it has allowed opponents to convert on third down 44.09% of the time this season (including playoffs), which ranks 28th in the NFL.
However, the Chiefs are equally as weak on third down, ranking 29th in the NFL with opponents covering 44.4% of their opportunities. Kansas City is also coming off a playoff win that masked Houston being able to convert 10 of its 17 third-down situations in the divisional round.
Whichever defense can buck their recent trend could help flip the game in their direction.
3. Can James Cook find success on the ground?
Kansas City did a solid job containing James Cook back in their regular season matchup, holding him to just 20 yards rushing on nine carries and 7 yards receiving on five catches. Cook was still able to make his presence felt with two goal-line touchdowns in that win for Buffalo, but he'll need to be more efficient with his touches in the AFC Championship to help keep the Bills' chances of advancing alive. He does face a tough task in the Chiefs, who've held opponents to 4.2 yards per carry this season, which is tied for the fourth fewest in the league. However, Joe Mixon was able to post 88 yards rushing on 18 carries last week, so it's possible to run on this unit. Meanwhile, if K.C. shuts down Cook, that puts even more on the plate of Josh Allen, possibly stretching him out too thin.
