Draft Day Dilemmas: Paul Goldschmidt's case for No. 1

Pass on Bryce Harper and Mike Trout? It's not as crazy as it sounds, Chris Towers says.

If you're picking fourth in your upcoming Fantasy baseball draft, you've probably got one of the easiest picks to make in the entire draft. Based on the consensus Average Draft Positions at FantasyPros.com, there is only one real choice for the No. 4 pick: Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, who goes fourth on average at each of their sources.

Of course, just because it is an easy pick doesn't mean it is a satisfying one. That's because, for as good as Kershaw is, there is a clear top tier for Fantasy in 2016, and it only includes three players: Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt. No matter where you pick in the top three, it feels like you got the N0. 1 pick, and whichever one you prefer is almost certainly based on which trait you are looking for.

If you side with Harper, you are obviously going for upside above all. Harper put together one of the finest seasons of all time, and at just 23, could conceivably have his best days ahead of him. Trout doesn't quite have as much upside as Harper or as much youth, but he is just 24 and coming off a 41-homer, .299-average season, so he isn't exactly far off in either category.

In that context, Goldschmidt almost seems unexciting. Goldschmidt has never hit 40 homers, and at 28, could conceivably be on the downside of his career. On the other hand, he could be the safest of the trio, and might be the best choice among them.

The case against Harper is the easiest to make: Regardless of how dominant he was a year ago, one year still isn't enough of a track record to go on. He put together one of the 20 or so best season's in MLB history, so it wouldn't be crazy if that was the best we ever saw of him -- only a handful of players ever reach that level. Add in the the long list of injury issues Harper has battled, and it's clear he is the riskiest of this trio.

Trout's track record is nearly flawless, of course. He has developed into one of the best power hitters in baseball, and still manages to hit near .300 every year despite a recent spike in his strikeout rate. He makes hard contact about as consistently as anyone in baseball, and puts the ball in the air a ton, allowing his natural raw power to play up in games. Power is one place he definitely has Goldschmidt beat.

However, it isn't crazy to suggest Goldschmidt might have him bested everywhere else. Goldschmidt strikes out a bit less often than Trout over the last few seasons, and took his walk rate to the next level in 2015, drawing a free pass 17 percent of the time he went to the plate. But it's not just that he makes a lot of contact, of course; Ben Revere makes a lot of contact. What sets Goldschmidt apart is how consistently he generates hard contact.

Goldschmidt has a 41.0 percent hard-hit rate for his career, better than the career-best 40.8 percent mark Trout posted a year ago; that is a mark he has topped in three straight seasons. When you combine that consistent hard contact with a lower strikeout rate, Goldschmidt seems like a better bet to top Trout in batting average.

Even if Trout is likely to finish with a handful more homers than Goldschmidt, that might actually be his only edge in the traditional five categories. As Trout continues to run less -- a product of hitting for more power, among other things -- Goldschmit has only increased his stolen base output, to a career-best 21 in 2015. If he can manage to double Trout's steal total again, that can go a long way toward bridging the gap.

The tiebreaker might come down to something outside of either players' control: their respective lineups. Goldschmidt plays half of his games in a better park than Trout, so the question comes down to whose lineup you think is better. The Diamondbacks ranked eighth in the majors in runs scored last season, while the Angels came in 20th, so it isn't crazy to give Goldschmidt the edge here as well.

The default position in Fantasy is to give Trout the No. 1 spot and move on from there. And, based on his track record of all-around dominance, this makes sense. When you are comparing these top-tier players, the difference between No. 1 and No. 3 is microscopic. Take a look at out Sportsline Projections for Trout, Harper and Goldschmidt for a great example of this:

Name	BA	R	HR	RBI	SB
Bryce Harper	.319	109	40	91	6
Mike Trout	.296	101	38	91	14
Paul Goldschmidt	.305	99	31	103	17

Ultimately, Goldschmidt probably isn't going to go No. 1 overall in your league or nearly any other one. Trout's track record is too long to ignore, and Harper's upside is too high to pass on if you are going the contrarian route. Like I said earlier, if you end up with any of that trio, you're going to be thrilled.

If Goldschmidt is the consolation prize, it's hard to be upset. He just might be the best of the bunch come October.