So you think you've learned all there is to know about Fantasy Baseball. Perhaps you're entering your fifth, 10th or 15th year of playing. Maybe you even won your league last season.
Rest assured, you never stop learning new things about the game. It might seem like you're an old pro, but there are always helpful hints or useful strategies to be obtained even if you consider yourself an expert. Remember, your counterparts are most likely making similar improvements each year, so it's important to maintain your competitive edge.
Here are some new tricks to keep in mind as you look to stay a step ahead in 2004:
Be careful how you value rookies and sophomores. Inexperienced Fantasy owners often place too much stock in rookies, placing inflated bids or high draft picks on the next big thing. First-year players are among the most unpredictable commodities in our game, and the Rookie of the Year favorite each year is rarely the player who actually wins the award. Few people picked Angel Berroa or Dontrelle Willis as the 2003 winners, and many were burned by investing heavily in Lyle Overbay or Franklyn German. It's difficult to tell which rookie might struggle with his initial adjustment to the major leagues, meaning the higher the bid for Khalil Greene or Doug Waechter, the higher the risk.
On the other hand, many Fantasy owners tend to forget sophomores who disappoint in their first big-league seasons. Hank Blalock wasn't considered a top pick heading into his second year in 2003, but he exploded offensively and was among the best at his position. Very often, a hot rookie who struggles initially improves as a sophomore because there's less pressure, which puts these types in the sleeper category. Marlon Byrd, Hee Seop Choi, Travis Hafner, Rich Harden, Victor Martinez, Miguel Olivo and Overbay didn't overwhelm anyone as rookies, but fit the bill as bargain picks with breakout ability in 2004.
Don't assume young hitters will remain stuck in career lulls. Along similar lines, most baseball players take a few years to reach their career peak. It's widely assumed that hitters generally post their best years sometime between the ages of 25 and 30, with many Fantasy experts suggesting age 27 as the year a batter reaches his power peak. However, labeling a specific age is hardly a scientific method for predicting breakout potential. Instead, try to identify players between the ages of 25 and 28 (as of opening day) with three-plus years of big-league service, who were once hailed as future superstars but have since slipped into a career lull.
Players who fit the bill in 2004: Michael Barrett, 27; Ron Belliard, 28; Lance Berkman, 28; Pat Burrell, 27; Joe Crede, 25; Ben Davis, 27; J.D. Drew, 28; Juan Encarnacion, 28; Pedro Feliz, 28; Karim Garcia, 28; Jay Gibbons, 27; Troy Glaus, 27; Ben Grieve, 27; Carlos Guillen, 28; Cristian Guzman, 26; Jerry Hairston Jr., 27; Toby Hall, 28; Torii Hunter, 28; D'Angelo Jimenez, 26; Adam Kennedy, 28; Paul Konerko, 28; Mark Kotsay, 28; Travis Lee, 28; Carlos Pena, 25; Josh Phelps, 25; A.J. Pierzynski, 27; Jimmy Rollins, 25; Brad Wilkerson, 26; and Craig Wilson, 27.
Know your contract-year players. The 2003 season might have been the greatest example of this theory in recent memory, with Keith Foulke, Jose Guillen, Javy Lopez, Andy Pettitte, Sidney Ponson, Gary Sheffield and Tim Worrell posting career-year totals as they played out the final years of their contracts. A potential winter payout via free agency can often motivate a player, which is reason enough to throw an extra dollar or two their way. Of course, if your league doesn't allow stats to be retained if players are dealt across leagues, pending free agents can be risky selections. Some of the names listed below could switch leagues before the July 31 trade deadline if their teams fall out of the playoff race.
Among the top prospective free agents following the 2004 season: Garret Anderson, Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre, Orlando Cabrera, Eric Chavez, Matt Clement, Carlos Delgado, Nomar Garciaparra, Glaus, Corey Koskie, Derek Lowe, Pedro Martinez, Matt Morris, Trot Nixon, Magglio Ordonez, Russ Ortiz, Troy Percival, Mariano Rivera, Richie Sexson, Jason Varitek, Jose Vidro and Kerry Wood.
Delve deeper into the statistics. Year-to-date stats are among the most abundant resources on the Internet, but they're not necessarily the most accurate representation of a player's current value. There's a reason the stat breakdowns (found by looking under Stats, Sortable Stats, Select Dates) are there, and they're a resource you should use on a regular basis. Remember that injuries, interleague play, streaks and slumps can have a huge impact on a player's overall stats, and sometimes a player with a .270-25-90 full-year line is in a cold spell and isn't necessarily the best starter for you at a given time.
A good way to get a sense of a player's current value is to check out his performance the past three weeks. Most streaks last about that span of time, and players who generally extend their hot play beyond that point are likely to keep up their level of performance the entire year. This is most evident in players who start off the year strong (also known as "three-week wonders"). If Aaron Rowand is blazing hot through April 25 this year, check his three-week performance totals from April 26-May 16 to get a more accurate representation of his full-season ability. If he's still hitting well, it's likely his breakout year will continue. If he has slowed, he'll be a top candidate to trade while his value is still high.
Familiarize yourself with 2003 second-half stats. Similar to the last strategy, many players often display varied trends between split halves of the season. A player's 2003 stat line could appear strong on the surface, but maybe his abilities eroded after the All-Star break as he was exposed as a mediocre performer or began to enter the waning stages of his career. Perhaps a young, budding star finally began to put it all together after the break, displaying skills that should carry into 2004.
Among the players who seemed to decline the second half of 2003: Tony Batista batted just .219 with 10 home runs; Rocky Biddle had 12 saves but a 5.81 ERA; Craig Biggio's bat went silent to the tune of a .251 average and six homers; Eric Byrnes' average slipped to .168; John Olerud hit only .260; Troy Percival was 0-3 with a 4.87 ERA and just 13 saves; Ty Wigginton hit just .236 with five homers and Woody Williams slipped to 6-6 with a 5.23 ERA.
Among the players whose strong finish bodes well for 2004: Larry Bigbie surged to a .323 average and eight homers; Marlon Byrd improved to a .313 average; Alex Cintron batted .331 with six homers; Carl Crawford hit .297 and stole 33 bases; Mike Hampton went 9-3 with a 2.91 ERA; Dan Kolb posted a 1.27 ERA and 21 saves; Mark Prior was a downright dominant 10-1 with a 1.52 ERA and Johan Santana was 8-1 with a 3.13 ERA.
Don't be fooled by spring training numbers. Fresh, recent statistics are a constant tease to Fantasy owners. We're always craving new information on players that pique our interest, but the most pertinent numbers we have heading into Draft Day are the previous year's statistics. Sometimes, that simply isn't good enough for some owners. A player will often be hot or cold during the exhibition season, and less-experienced Fantasy owners often put too much stock in his spring numbers. Ken Griffey Jr. was a prime example from a year ago. He was one of the spring's best hitters, convincing many people he was 100 percent healthy and worth a high bid or draft pick. By May, however, he was back on the disabled list and a huge disappointment.
Resist the temptation to drastically change your cheat sheet based on a player's spring performance, especially in the case of veteran players. Most players only consider the exhibition season a tune-up for the regular season, so they often don't play at peak form. Others annihilate the Class A ball pitchers who grace the mound most of the first few weeks of March, racking up artificially inflated totals. About the only emphasis you should place on exhibition season statistics is seeing which players in the hunt for jobs improve their stock with good play, which players coming off injuries have proven themselves fully healthy, and which players have demonstrated improved ability in their plate discipline (hitters) or control (pitchers), specifically in their walk or strikeout totals.
Know how to properly analyze pitching talent. Wins, saves and ERA are largely affected by a pitcher's team situation. It can be said that pitching for Detroit, Milwaukee or Pittsburgh means little run support and fewer wins for a starter or saves for a closer, while pitching for Cincinnati, Cleveland or the Mets means little defensive support and therefore more outs to get and more batters to face, adversely affecting an ERA. In fact, it has been said that the closest measure of a pitcher's true ability is his WHIP ratio. Pitchers have the most control over how many baserunners they allow, so placing more stock in the WHIP category is often a good way to identify overrated or underrated arms. To a lesser extent, per-nine-inning ratios in walks, strikeouts and home runs allowed, as well as strikeouts-to-walks, are useful indicators.
Among the pitchers whose 2003 totals in the major Fantasy categories weren't exactly in line with their performance in these peripheral departments: Jeremy Affeldt, Danys Baez, Miguel Batista, Ted Lilly, Morris, Odalis Perez, Brad Penny, Ben Sheets, Justin Speier and Javier Vazquez.
