Circling the Bases is our Fantasy Baseball expert column, full of insider information, advice and in-depth analysis. Every Wednesday year-round, Tristan H. Cockcroft provides an array of preseason draft strategy, regular-season coverage and offseason player analysis.
The 2003 Fantasy Baseball season might be over, but our analysis and coverage will continue right up until Draft Day 2004. Check back every Wednesday throughout the offseason for the latest Fantasy Baseball news and views.
For those of you eagerly awaiting the announcement of the winners of those tight MVP, Cy Young and rookie of the year races, you'll have to wait until November. In order to appease the masses, however, let's crown those 2003 Fantasy Baseball award winners now and avoid the six weeks of frustrating anticipation.
Remember, in our game, getting the best value for your Draft Day dollar is what makes a Fantasy champion. For instance, Barry Bonds might win the National League's MVP once again, but he wasn't the most valuable Fantasy player, merely because he didn't really perform any better than his price tag back in March. Conversely, Mike Maroth might have posted one of the worst stat lines around, but no one bid more than a couple bucks on him at the draft table if any, so he didn't hurt Fantasy owners.
For that reason, the awards listed below take not only the player's performance this year into account, but also his preseason price tag. Listed under each award is one winner each from the National League and American League, as well as the mixed league winner. Statistics for hitters are AVG-HR-RBI-SB-R, while pitchers are W-SV-ERA-WHIP-K.
Best impact hitter: NL, Albert Pujols (.359-43-124-5-137). The Cardinals slugger certainly cost a high premium on Draft Day, but what made his season so dominant was that in traditional Rotisserie leagues, he qualified at three positions -- first base, third base and the outfield. That's an unbelievable advantage for a player who posted the major leagues' best average and runs scored total, and fifth-best homer and RBI totals. Pujols won't qualify at third in 2004, but there's no reason to believe he won't contend for this title again. ...
AL, Carlos Delgado (.302-42-145-0-115). While many point to Alex Rodriguez as the AL's best Fantasy player, Delgado's performance was just as good and came at a cheaper price. Delgado's AL-leading 145 RBI were 27 more than A-Rod's second-best total, and the Blue Jays first baseman finished with just five fewer homers than A-Rod. Delgado is an interesting player to consider for 2004. He'll be among the most expensive players available at next year's draft, and while that might suggest an inevitable disappointment, remember that he'll be in his contract year. ... Mixed, Pujols.
Best impact pitcher: NL, Eric Gagne (2-55-1.20-0.692-137). Even if the Dodgers closer doesn't win the Cy Young -- and he really should after posting the greatest all-time season by a closer -- he became a rare reliever to earn the Fantasy honor. Gagne finished with 10 more saves than any other major-leaguer, and his 37 hits allowed in 82 1/3 innings were simply unreal. Barring an injury, Gagne should be the best closer in Fantasy Baseball once again next year. ...
AL, Roy Halladay (22-0-3.25-1.071-204). This will likely represent the first of two disappointments for Esteban Loaiza, who will probably place second in the Cy Young race as well. While the two pitchers had extremely close seasons from a statistical perspective, Loaiza loses out because he posted a 5.30 ERA in six September starts, when his Fantasy owners needed him most. Halladay carried his Fantasy teams to the end, with a 5-1 record and 1.41 ERA in his six September turns. A look ahead at 2004 shows why Halladay's the better choice -- do you really think Loaiza is the more likely of the two to repeat? ... Mixed, Gagne.
Best sleeper: NL, Marcus Giles (.316-21-69-14-101). The National League didn't feature nearly as many obvious sleeper choices as the American League, but Giles fit the mold better than anyone in the Senior Circuit. He carried a price tag in the single digits in most leagues, yet was one of the best at a weak position. Giles finished first in average, fourth in runs scored fifth in homers, seventh in RBI in the majors among second basemen. He's on his way to a fine career and should only get better next season. ...
AL, Loaiza (21-0-2.90-1.113-207). Finally, Loaiza gets some recognition for his efforts. The Chicago right-hander was an almost-guaranteed $1 pick in any league in which he was drafted, yet he performed like a $40 pitcher. Loaiza finished second in the majors in wins, fifth in strikeouts and ninth in ERA and WHIP. He might have dashed a few of his owners' dreams at a title in September, but he was probably the reason he got them into contention in the first place. As for next year, don't count on a repeat. Loaiza has refined his pitch selection enough that he should be a solid starter, but expect him to decline by as many as eight wins and one full point in ERA. ... Mixed, Loaiza.
Biggest breakout: NL, Mark Prior (18-0-2.43-1.103-245). Although the Cubs right-hander spent some time on the disabled list after a collision with Giles before the All-Star break, Prior still managed to emerge as one of Fantasy Baseball's best pitchers. You might say he "broke out" in 2002, but this was the year he made a name for himself, perhaps even earning a Cy Young in a few weeks. Look at Prior's 10-1 record, 1.52 ERA and 1.004 WHIP in 11 second-half starts and it's clear that he's ready to take the baton as Fantasy Baseball's new most dominant ace. ...
AL, Vernon Wells (.317-33-117-4-118). Not many people expected MVP-caliber numbers from Wells, who was overshadowed by Delgado's great year in Toronto. But Wells was a major reason why the Blue Jays got off to such a good start, and he made a name for himself as an elite Fantasy slugger. In only his second full season, Wells finished seventh in the majors in runs scored, eighth in RBI, 10th in batting average and 21st in homers. Even better, he'll probably still be a fair price at next year's draft because of a lack of exposure. ... Mixed, Prior.
Best rookie: NL, Scott Podsednik (.314-9-58-43-100). With all apologies to Brandon Webb and Dontrelle Willis, Podsednik gets this honor because he finished fourth in the majors in steals, a category that has seen marked decline in recent years. He even batted over .300. In case you missed it, Podsednik became only the fourth rookie since 1900 to top a .300 average, 40 steals and 100 runs scored (Ichiro Suzuki, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Jimmy Barrett were the others) -- isn't that a stat us Fantasy owners just eat up? ...
AL, Angel Berroa (.287-17-73-21-92). Hideki Matsui is everyone's obvious choice for AL rookie of the year, but the fact remains it's a much closer race than anyone would believe. Berroa gets the nod over Matsui, Rocco Baldelli and Mark Teixeira because he was the one no one seemed to want on Draft Day. Criticized as a light hitter, Berroa finished fourth among all big-league shortstops in steals, seventh in batting average, homers and runs scored and eighth in RBI. He still needs to refine his plate discipline somewhat, but should come close to these totals again next year. ... Mixed, Podsednik.
Biggest bust: NL, Tom Glavine (9-0-4.52-1.478-82). As it turns out, Glavine's decision to leave Atlanta and noted pitching guru Leo Mazzone was a big mistake. The Mets left-hander endured a miserable first year away from the Braves, posting his worst season since 1988, his first full year in the majors. What's more, Glavine barely missed any time, meaning he was always there to trick his Fantasy owners into activating him and enduring his bad stats. He'll rebound with a year of New York experience under his belt, but at age 37, Glavine can't be expected to ever reclaim his Atlanta glory days. ...
AL, Eric Hinske (.243-12-63-12-74). Injuries plagued the 2002 AL rookie of the year, including hand surgery that sent him to the disabled list for a month. Hinske's 12 steals were nice, but his poor performance in all the other categories made him too risky to use even when he was stealing bases. He batted over .250 just once (September) and recorded seven of those steals in the season's final month, after his Fantasy teams were probably out of the race. With a winter to heal, Hinske should be a major rebound candidate for next year, especially since he didn't take much of a step back in plate discipline this season. ... Mixed, Glavine.
Most devastating injury: NL, Randy Johnson (6-0-4.26-1.333-125). When the first pick overall (in many leagues) misses nearly three months of the season with a knee problem, one that then plagues him even while he's active, it can kill a Fantasy team. When that pick is a pitcher, the results can be catastrophic. To put Johnson's year in perspective, Mike Maroth, a 21-game loser, had more wins. It was difficult to predict Johnson was in for an injury-plagued campaign, but at 40, you had to be aware it was possible. It could happen again next year, although Johnson remains committed to returning to close to his old form. ...
AL, Mark Mulder (15-0-3.13-1.179-128). Nothing hurts more than having a pitcher take you all the way to mid-August, then suffer a season-ending injury just in time to miss the critical final weeks of the Fantasy season. At the time Mulder suffered a stress fracture in his hip in an Aug. 19 start, he was well on pace to 20 wins and perhaps his first Cy Young award. AL-only owners know how difficult it is to find quality pitching on the waiver wire that late into the season, making Mulder's injury sting that much more. He should be fully healthy in time for spring training, fortunately, and should again be an elite Fantasy pitcher. ... Mixed, Johnson.
Best rebound: NL, Javy Lopez (.328-43-109-0-89). He's an obvious choice after breaking Todd Hundley's record for homers by a catcher in one season. Playing for a contract, Lopez posted new career highs in batting average, homers, RBI and runs scored, even finishing fifth in the majors in homers. That said, it's highly unlikely Lopez will repeat this performance. With a new contract in hand, likely on another team, he might endure an adjustment period or not be pressed so hard to excel. In addition, those 1,106 career games behind the plate might take their toll, as they appeared to do in 2001-02. ...
AL, Frank Thomas (.267-42-105-0-87). Perhaps Jerry Manuel's criticism of Thomas' plan to swing for the fences more often was the manager's ultimate downfall. The Thomas go-for-the-longball approach helped him post the second-highest homer total of his career, 10 more than he hit the previous two years combined. At 35, Thomas is no longer the well-rounded offensive force he was back in his early-1990s MVP days, and he'll certainly be an injury risk the rest of his career. But he should still post solid stats next year, even if he falls back a step. ... Mixed, Lopez.
LABR's new champion: My sincerest congratulations go out to "regular guy" Mark Allen, whose 2003 performance in the League of Alternative Baseball Reality was hardly ordinary. With a five-point margin, he dethrones Team SportsLine to claim his first LABR title. Allen had as much as a 13-point lead at one point earlier in September, but I tried to give him a run with strong finishes by Marlins Jeff Conine and Ugueth Urbina. Ultimately, finishing one steal and 0.03 in ERA behind Allen, as well as finishing one save behind Baseball HQ, was my ultimate undoing. It was a close race to the end, and I tip my hat to Allen's fine full-year performance, which was certainly helped by having Kevin Brown, Prior and Javier Vazquez leading his staff. Like they say, pitching wins titles.
Speaking of titles, I'd also like to congratulate SportsLine.com's very own Scott Engel, who claimed the SportsLine.com/Krause Publications championship with a four-point margin of victory over Fantasy Baseball Weekly TV (Brady Tinker). Engel's title represents his second in three years (he also won the 2001 FSTA Head-to-Head Experts League). Scott, rest assured, the fabled Yoo-hoo shower awaits you. ...
Last, but certainly not least, many congratulations go out to Baseball HQ's Jeff Howard, the winner of the first annual SportsLine.com Experts League. Jeff's squad, led by fine performances by Loaiza, Renteria, Vazquez and Bill Mueller, dominated the 15-team league the entire year, finishing with a 21-point margin of victory. Congrats, Jeff!
Want to give your opinion or ask a question? E-mail your Fantasy Baseball comments and questions to Tristan H. Cockcroft at bleacher@commissioner.com. Be sure to put Attn: Tristan in the subject field, and include your full name and hometown. Please be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee responses to all questions.
