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Whether you punted saves on Draft Day or are just looking to bolster your standing, the waiver wire is often where Fantasy owners go looking for relief pitcher help during the season. While we have our daily waiver wire piece at the Fantasy Baseball Today blog, we figure it makes sense to put extra focus on the relievers this season as well.
After all, though we often imbue them with mythical powers regarding their ability to overcome the pressure of the ninth inning, the reality is that closers are pretty fungible. Maybe you don't want your favorite team throwing a bunch of scrubs who can't find the strike zone out there in the ninth, but even those types of pitchers can be valuable for Fantasy purposes.
Every Thursday starting today, we'll be here with a reliever stock report to see whose stock is moving up or down throughout the season. While the focus will be on closers who are trending up or down, you'll also find elite setup men who could be a blown save from a job, as well as the Wade Davis and Dellin Betances-types who don't pick up saves but still find Fantasy relevance otherwise.
Heading into the season, you could point to 10 teams that had shaky ninth-inning situations for various reasons, and that was before the Braves moved all-universe closer Craig Kimbrel to the Padres. We'll start the stock watch next week, but this week let's take a look at those closer situations we'll want to keep an eye on to start the season.
The 'Why not?' Incumbents
When your team just kind shrugs their shoulders, points at you and says, "Sure, we know your name," chances are your hold on the job isn't very strong.
Jason Grilli, Braves
Twelve hours before the first pitch
of the season, Grilli probably wasn't on any Fantasy radars as he was
all set to enter the season as an anonymous, unreliable setup man to
Kimbrel. However, with the surprise trade of Kimbrel to San Diego,
Grilli was thrust in the role, and he could thrive there. He posted an
ugly 4.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP last season, but that was mostly the result
of early-season struggles with control in Pittsburgh. He posted a 3.48
ERA and 1.158 WHIP after a trade to Los Angeles, and had a 2.74 ERA and
36 saves in 41 opportunies from 2011 through 2013. Of the pitchers in
this category, he has the most upside.
LaTroy Hawkins, Rockies
Defying age and logic, Hawkins
has actually been a pretty solid reliever over the past few seasons. He
has posted a better-than-league-average ERA in each of the last four
seasons, including a 3.31 mark a year ago that featured little in the
way of apparent flukiness, as his 3.39 FIP attests. And yet, he struck
out just 32 batters in 54 1/3 innings, and somehow managed to surrender
just three home runs despite pitching at Coors and watching his flyball
rate rise for the fifth straight season. The wheels are coming off at
some point, it's just a question of when.
Joe Nathan, Tigers
Nathan was already about as shaky as
closers come this season after what was a fairly disastrous 2014. And
that was before he suffered the flexor tendon strain that landed him on
the DL on Wednesday. Joakim Soria will take over the closer's job, and
he should do a fine job, but manager Brad Ausmus told reporters he
expects Nathan to retain the job when he gets healthy. Of course, Nathan
was so bad last season, and so bad in the spring, it seems like it will
only be a matter of time before he loses the job anyway. Soria should be
worth starting for the next few weeks, and will be worth stashing in
plenty of leagues even when Nathan gets back.
Francisco Rodriguez, Brewers
It isn't Rodriguez's track
record that makes him somewhat questionable, as much as the strange
offseason he had. Rodriguez racked up 44 saves last season, his most
since 2008, and had a solid 3.04 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 68 innings of
work. However, he didn't find work until the middle of March, and ended
up with a truncated spring training as a result. Hopefully that won't
matter for a pitcher with Rodriguez's experience and track record, but
it could potentially be something to keep an eye on for at least the
first few weeks, if he comes out rusty.
Jenrry Mejia, Mets
Coming into the season, there weren't
many Fantasy owners who were all-in on Mejia. In fact, though he went 30
for 33 in save opportunities with a 2.72 ERA as a reliever a year ago,
Mejia went completely undrafted in more than half of CBSSports.com
leagues. Of course, Mejia was just placed on the DL with an elbow
injury, so those owners who did pass on him are feeling pretty
vindicated right now.
'Hey, I earned this!'
Despite some uncertainty in the spring, these guys came away with the job. At least, some of them did.
Dellin Betances/Andrew Miller,
Yankees
Sitting on two potentially dominant arms, Joe Girardi is
content to drive Fantasy players insane, refusing to name a closer
between his two choices. Both Miller and Betances could be elite options
if they got the job, but the lack of clarity should scare you off a bit.
Betances seemed like the favorite to take the job, though he posted a
6.14 ERA with five walks and only six strikeouts in the spring, which
likely contributed to Girardi's hemming and hawing. If you're the
panicky type, Wednesday's game might have been enough to scare you off
Betances, who came into the game in the eighth inning with the Yankees
down 2-1 and proceeded to walk two batters and allow one hit, while
throwing just 15 of 32 pitches for strikes. Miller came in and shut the
door in the ninth after a Yankees rally, picking up the first save
between the two, and has to be considered the leader for now. This is
going to be a nightmare for Fantasy owners for the next few weeks,
unless and until Girardi settles on one or the other.
Brett Cecil, Blue Jays
The Blue Jays needed a few weeks
to figure out the closer's situation in the spring, but Cecil ultimately
won out. Given how well he has thrown out of the bullpen (2.76 ERA, 1.23
WHIP in 114 innings over the last two seasons), Cecil was a fairly
obvious choice. Of course, he was also helped by the fact that one of
his main competitors, Aaron Sanchez,
had to move to the rotation. If Cecil's control problems (27 walks in 53
1/3 innings last season) crop up, he might face pressure for the role,
and he didn't get off to a resounding start in his season debut
Wednesday. Cecil was brought into the game with the bases loaded and no
out, and was unable to get out of the jam, taking the first blown save
to his record. More troubling than the result is the fact that Cecil's
fastball topped out at 89 miles per hour; he averaged 92.7 last April.
If high-80's is the most Cecil can muster, Wednesday's outing might be
more the norm.
Luke Gregerson, Astros
Gregerson has been an ace out of
the bullpen throughout his entire career and he peaked last season with
a 2.12 ERA and 1.00 WHIP for the A's in 72 1/3 innings. However, he
doesn't have the usual elite strikeout numbers you usually see from
flamethrowers in the late innings, which leaves some questioning whether
he can fit long term in the ninth. As good as he has been, the Astros
also have Pat Neshek in the bullpen, who
was arguably even better than Gregerson last season, so if his stuff
fails to play up in the ninth, they have a natural replacement. The
chances of that happening are pretty slim, of course, with Gregerson
posting an ERA at least 26 percent better than league average in each of
the last four years.
The placeholders
Savor this moment while you can.
Tyler Clippard, Athletics
With his ability to work
multiple innings and multiple consecutive days without issue, Clippard
might be the rare elite bullpen arm who is a bit wasted in the closer's
role. He should do fine in the role until Sean Doolittle's shoulder issues pass (targeting May), and Clippard
might end up worth a roster spot in Rotisserie leagues even after he
returns to his role as a setup fireman; he has at least 82 strikeouts in
four of the last five seasons, while averaging a 2.63 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and
91 strikeouts over the last five seasons.
Chris Hatcher, Dodgers
Hatcher is a former catcher with
a limited track record of success in the majors, so he probably doesn't
have a very long leash with Kenley Jansen
recovering from a foot injury. In fact, he might have been given enough
rope to hang himself already, as was tagged for four runs -- two earned
-- without recording an out in his second appearance of the season. He
took the Tuesday, and it wouldn't be a surprise at all if Joel Peralta or J.P. Howell got the call for his next chance.
Brad Boxberger/Grant Balfour/Ernesto Frieri/Kevin Jepsen, Rays
Like
the Dodgers, the Rays haven't given us much clarity when it comes to
their fill-in for Jake McGee. The Rays
are the kind of forward-thinking organization that might be willing to
throw out any old middle reliever in the ninth if the situation calls
for it, but Brad Boxberger has long
been considered the favorite for the role. He is probably the guy to own
here, but there is no guarantee he'll get the call if the Rays have a
lead in the ninth coming up.
Jeurys Familia, Mets
When Mejia's elbow started barking
on opening day, it was Familia who surprisingly got the call to close
out the Nationals in a 3-1 win. He struck out two batters to shut the
door, and received the vote of confidence after the game from manager
Terry Collins after the game. At least until Bobby Parnell's elbow is healthy enough to allow him to pitch in the
majors. Familia has posted a solid 2.84 ERA over 101 1/3 major-league
innings, but he has also walked 50 batters en route to a 1.29 WHIP, so
he has been anything but dominant. Maybe he runs away with the job over
the next few weeks, but it wouldn't be at all surprising if either
Parnell or Mejia took the job by the end of the month, assuming their
joints cooperate. Familia is worth an add right now, but he may not be a
long-term answer for the Mets.
