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Thursday's late slate is not the easiest to get excited about. There's one sure thing at pitcher (Madison Bumgarner) and he's $12,000. My second favorite pitcher currently owns a 4.73 ERA. My favorite stack is facing a pitcher who has given up two runs in his last 11.2 innings pitched. But that doesn't mean there's not upside.
There's no upside like Cardinals upside on Thursday against the generous Chris Young, but I cover them plenty below. Here are a few more upside plays that are nowhere close to safe.
Carlos Carrasco and Steven Matz both have awful matchups and both have struggled to live up to the hype they had coming into the year. Still, they also both have double-digit strikeout potential, and Matz is only $9,400 on both sites.
As for stacks, I think the Mariners and Indians possess the most upside outside of those I've listed below. The Indians in particular feel like a boom-or-bust play. They face R.A. Dickey, who gave up four home runs in his last start. Dickey had only allowed seven runs in his four previous starts.
Starting Pitchers
Madison Bumgarner ($12,000, $13,000)
As if it wasn't cool enough that the Giants were going to let Bumgarner hit in an AL park, he also happens to be by far the best pitching option. The A's have actually been decent against LHP but Bumgarner is still the second-biggest favorite on the slate with the lowest implied runs against. It also looks like a slate with plenty of value plays, so his $12,000 cost isn't too prohibitive.
Gio Gonzalez ($8,500, $7,400)
Gonzalez is the biggest favorite of the day against Brandon Finnegan and the Reds. He's implied to give up more runs (3.8) than I'd generally like from a starter, but it's a short slate and I think at least some of that is because of the bad luck Gonzalez has had over the last year and a half. The Reds are below average against LHP and rank 28th in road wOBA. Gonzalez is a great value on DraftKings.
John Lackey ($9,500, $10,600)
I'm not a huge fan of Lackey, especially at this price. That being said, this Mets offense provides a spectacular matchup. In fairness to Lackey, he has a much higher K rate than he has ever had in his career and he is a favorite against the Mets. If you're going to play three pitchers today, Lackey should be your third.
Stack Attack
Marlins @ Braves
I wanted to stack the Marlins earlier this week but it was hard because they were so expensive. Those prices have dropped a little just in time for their matchup with Mike Foltynewicz. The Braves righty has given up a .419 wOBA to lefties this year, which is very close to his career .412 mark. Derek Dietrich and Justin Bour are my favorite plays with Christian Yelich right behind them.
Cardinals vs. Royals
Despite their performance against Edinson Volquez on Wednesday, the Cardinals are one of the best offenses in baseball against RHP. Chris Young has thrown 21.1 innings outside of Kauffman Stadium this season and has allowed 13 home runs and a 1.209 OPS. He has faced 113 LHH. They've hit 14 home runs and have a .529 wOBA. Any lefty Cardinal you can fit in the lineup deserves consideration.
Nationals vs. Reds
I don't fully understand how the Nationals have been as good as they have vs. LHP, but I have little doubt it should continue against Brandon Finnegan. Finnegan has actually been worse vs. LHH than righties, but he hasn't been consistently good against anyone.
Lineups
I'm going to offer my early take on a cash game lineup, but of course you should always check out our Sportsline projections for lineup changes right up to lock. Also, check out our podcast on iTunes for extended thoughts on each slate from Chris Towers, Mike McClure and myself.
FanDuel
P Madison Bumgarner $12,000
C Yadier Molina $2,600
1B Brandon Moss $3,900
2B Derek Dietrich $2,900
3B Jhonny Peralta $2,700
SS Ruben Tejada $2,000
OF Kolten Wong $2,800
OF Christian Yelich $3,700
OF Jarrod Dyson $2,200
DraftKings
P Madison Bumgarner $13,000
P Gio Gonzalez $7,400
C Yadier Molina $3,000
1B Justin Bour $4,500
2B Kolten Wong $3,100
3B Kyle Seager $3,600
SS Javier Baez $3,500
OF Brandon Moss $4,800
OF Christian Yelich $4,300
OF Steven Moya $2,600
