Learning Rotisserie History 101
In order to get a good grasp on how many homers or how many steals you might need to win a Rotisserie category, it's important to take a look back over the past few years. David Gonos breaks down the numbers this week.
Important numbers I have to know: my wedding anniversary (8/14), my weekly salary after taxes (126.32), the weight in pounds I must always answer when my wife asks me to guess how much she weighs (98) and how many total stolen bases I probably need to win the category (191) -- not necessarily in that order.
In Fantasy Baseball, it's always good to talk numbers. Especially when you compare this year's numbers to previous years in order to get a grasp on trends or opportunities to exploit. And in baseball, more than any other sport, the numbers on a whole are almost always consistent with history.
But instead of reviewing the numbers of players versus their previous years, I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at Rotisserie numbers from a year ago, to figure out if you are on pace for a win or in which categories you can make up the most ground.
For this study, I'm going to take a look at the final season numbers from our 2005 Fantasy Baseball Magazine league, which consisted of 12 teams in a standard 5x5 setup. I'll compare those numbers to what many leagues likely look like this season -- the 2006 version of said league. With each stat category, I'll offer a name or two of some players that might be able to help out, allowing you to look for the same players in your leagues. We'll take a look at hitters this week and pitchers next week.
Hitting Categories: Batting average
| 2005 Roto numbers | ||
| Winning batting average | 12 pts | .2859 |
| Median batting average | 6.5 pts | .2753 |
| Worst batting average | 1 pt | .2646 |
Category: Home runs
| 2005 Roto numbers | ||
| Winning home runs | 12 pts | 349 |
| Median home runs | 6.5 pts | 282 |
| Worst home runs | 1 pt | 214 |
Category: RBI
| 2005 Roto numbers | ||
| Winning RBI | 12 pts | 1,169 |
| Median RBI | 6.5 pts | 961 |
| Worst RBI | 1 pt | 752 |
Category: Runs scored
| 2005 Roto numbers | ||
| Winning runs scored | 12 pts | 1,192 |
| Median runs scored | 6.5 pts | 1,017 |
| Worst runs scored | 1 pt | 841 |
Category: Stolen bases
| 2005 Roto numbers | ||
| Winning steals | 12 pts | 191 |
| Median steals | 6.5 pts | 129 |
| Worst steals | 1 pt | 67 |
In the Tout Wars, I recently traded a player that's on pace for 27 homers and 88 RBI for a player on pace to hit .255, but steal 33 more bases from here on out. That's going to be a big hit in my power and average numbers, but the boost from my last-place SB squad should make up the difference. Is there a Ken Griffey Jr.-for-Scott Podsednik trade out there for you? We'll see how it pays off for me later, but for now, I could spare the power. Make sure you can do the same before offering a similar deal.
In a another league, my fellow writer Eric Mack is currently contemplating trading Andruw Jones, since his team is ahead in the power categories, for speedster Jose Reyes. With an infield already consisting of Derek Jeter, Jeff Kent and Rickie Weeks, he's going to end up starting Reyes at DH. That should show you how important speed is at this point of the season.
Help! I need somebody! Help!
Who are some hitters that can help you bring your overall numbers up? For all cases in this piece, I'm going to only use players that are owned in less than 25 percent of all CBS SportsLine leagues, which means there is a good shot that he is available in your league.
David Ross, C, Cincinnati (Owned in seven percent of SportsLine leagues): Ross has taken over the backstop duties from Jason LaRue and is hitting .347. That average will certainly drop over the next few months, but you can bet that hitting at Great American Ballpark, in that lineup, he'll produce better than many mixed-league No. 2 catchers.
Mike Napoli, C, L.A. Angels (19 percent): Napoli is also seeing a ton of starts for the Angels, a team desperate for offense, and has four homers in his past seven games. Jose Molina is still probably better for the pitching staff and Jeff Mathis is still the team's future behind the plate, but Napoli is only owned in 19 percent of our leagues -- which is just wrong.
Kendry Morales, 1B, L.A. Angels (25 percent): Another recent call-up in Anaheim, Morales is now hitting fifth in the lineup, which is a prime RBI-harvesting spot. The Cuban defector has power from both sides and can be slotted at first or DH if the Angels need to move players around.
Mark DeRosa, 2B/OF, Texas (23 percent): There aren't many hitters hotter right now than DeRosa, who is hitting .360 with 15 RBI and 12 runs scored since May 22. He has taken over in right field, shoving Kevin Mench to DH and Jason Botts to the bench. He's not going to be hot forever -- and he'll likely return to reserve status at some point -- but if you have a player that just landed on the DL, grab him for a two-week tryout.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego (24 percent): How does a former No. 1 overall draft pick, who is coming off a 17-game hitting streak, stay unowned in over three-quarters of our leagues? Well, he still hasn't shown that he can bring in runs (only five RBI in that span and a .239 batting average with RISP overall), but he's certainly getting the chances in San Diego and with experience and confidence, rising Fantasy value usually follows.
Aaron Hill, 2B/SS/3B, Toronto (21 percent): Owners probably have a bad taste in their mouths from Hill's performance toward the second half of last season and the first six weeks of this year. But since May 14, the middle infielder has hit .394 (with a 0.958 OPS), to bring up his season average from .186 to .278.
Alex Gordon, 3B, Kansas City (11 percent): He has overtaken Billy Butler as the Royals' top prospect. While Gordon is trying to get over a foot injury, caused by stepping on a broken bottle, he should be fine and ready for a post-All Star break call-up. He currently has nine homers, 17 doubles, 27 RBI and 14 stolen bases at Double-A Wichita. His ownership peaked at 16 a few weeks ago, but impatient owners have moved on. Grab him if you have a reserve spot open.
Speaking of trades, I want to know about where the weirdest trade you've ever been involved in was. For instance, did you make a big trade at your wedding? At your granddad's funeral? At the hospital while your opponent was under anesthesia after an operation? Go up to the top of this page and click on the link next to my name that says, "Tell David your opinion," and fill out the form with your story. But please, make sure it's an interesting story and BRIEF! I'll post a couple good ones in next week's column.
Players about to heat up
Last week, I asked you to send me some players you believe are about to get red hot. Many sent in players that were already hot, but many sent in some of the same names. More specifically, Andy Pettitte.
Jamie Schachter: Keep an eye on Triple-A prospects Jason Hirsh and Dustin Nippert for pitchers about to take a big jump in Fantasy value. Both are big K guys (both in statistics and in their sheer height) having dominating years in the minors in organizations that need help in the starting rotations. Nippert for a Diamondbacks team that's still starting Russ Ortiz and Claudio Vargas despite terrible results and Hirsh for an Astros squad that might have Roger Clemens coming back, but also has Roy Oswalt hurt. They also continue to suffer through Taylor Buchholz and Fernando Nieve.
Tony Williams: I believe that Ervin Santana is about to improve his Fantasy value. His K-to-BB ratio is almost 3:1 and his Ks per inning have crept up to almost 1.00. He has great stuff and is on a team that can put runs on the board in support. Hard to believe he's only owned in 79 percent and started in a measly 49 percent of SportsLine leagues.
Tom "Hackman" Burdette: Zack Greinke appears to have dealt with his "personal issues" and is pitching well in the minors. He will be back to the majors soon and has the stuff to be a good pitcher on a bad team.
Ken Carlson: Looking for pitchers about to improve? I suggest Pettitte now that Clemens is rejoining the Astros. Pettitte's been remarkably inconsistent this year, and not having seen anything suggesting it's a physical problem, I just wonder if maybe his head hasn't been in the game 100 percent. Getting Rocket back on the roster with him might help him regain his focus. Of course, I might just be hoping, as he's currently riding the pine in my Head-to-Head league.
Ryan Campbell: David, you're going to see a lot of pitchers turn things around as well as many pitchers heading south. One of the pitchers that I feel will have a big spike in Fantasy value is Dave Bush. If you delve into his numbers, you will see that his Ks (69 in 85 IP) and WHIP (1.140) are very good for a not-so-known pitcher that is probably sitting on the waiver wire in many leagues. I base a lot of my projections on how well a pitcher can strike out hitters, limit hits and limit walks. Bush is excelling (or doing very well) in all three of these categories. His ERA should come down and while he might not have 17 wins by the end of the year, 14 or 15 is not out of the question.













