The 2024 Major League Baseball regular season is drawing to a close. For the high-performing teams and sort-of-high-performing teams, the focus is on the playoffs to come. For the remainder of MLB's clubs, they're thinking about the offseason. For some of those teams, the first step is to make changes in the dugout.
Already this season we've seen three managers lose their jobs because of varying levels of under-performance -- Pedro Grifol of the White Sox, Scott Servais of the Mariners, and, mere days ago, David Bell of the Reds. Likely, the dugout blood-letting is not over, which means we must tend to the grim business of name-checking a few managers who might soon be escorted off the premises with a box of belongings in hand.
Before we jump in, let's talk about a conspicuous absence from the list to come: Skip Schumaker of the Marlins. Schumaker will almost certainly not be back with the team in 2025, which raises the matter of why he's not included here. He's not because his situation is quite different from the traditional hot-seater. Back in early April, the Marlins under their new-ish leadership of lead exec Peter Bendix removed the 2025 club option from Schumaker's contract. Coming off a surprise playoff berth under Schumaker in 2024, this decision of course did not reflect any dissatisfaction with the manager's work. Rather, it was to allow Schumaker to control his own future following the surprise departure of former general manager Kim Ng. All of that means the 44-year-old Schumaker -- the reigning National League Manager of the Year -- will become a free agent at season's end. Very likely, he'll fill one of the managerial vacancies to come, perhaps the one of his choosing.
Now let's move on to the managers who may be in peril as the regular season draws to a close.
Bud Black, Rockies
It seems like Black has been pulling the levers in Colorado since antediluvian times. He's wrapping up his eighth season on the job, and his tenure has been notable for its lack of success. He's about to complete his sixth straight losing season and is at risk of a second straight 100-loss campaign. Oh, Black is also 536-652 as Rockies manager, and he hasn't guided them to the postseason since 2018. No, he's not working with ample talent, and that's not Black's fault. Still, it's hard to think of another manager with another team who would be allowed a leash of such length. Sure, the Rockies run on vibes, or at least their perception of vibes, but this is a bit puzzling even by their standards.
John Schneider, Blue Jays
The wheels came off in Toronto this season. On the heels of four straight winning seasons and consecutive playoff berths, Toronto right now is in last place in the AL East. The Jays came into 2024 with World Series aspirations, but they wound up as deadline sellers. That, of course, is not all Schneider's fault, but he wasn't on entirely sure footing even before 2024 went awry thanks to his tactically dubious work in the postseason. General manager Ross Atkins may be feeling some level of heat himself, and the playbook for a lead exec in danger says the best way to buy time is to fire the manager. That's probably an oversimplification of how these things work, but it's a dynamic worth noting when it comes to Schneider's future in Toronto.
Oliver Marmol, Cardinals
The Cardinals have a bit of a soft stretch of schedule to end the season, which means they may be able to notch a winning campaign coming off the 91-loss disaster of 2023. However, their stated goal for 2024 was to return to the postseason, and that didn't happen. Marmol in the spring inked a surprise contract extension through 2026, which helps his job security. That said, if president of baseball operations John Mozeliak steps down a year ahead of schedule -- a possibility -- then Marmol may be imperiled under the next lead decision-maker. If he's not, then he'll still go into the 2025 season on the short-list of hot-seaters.
The interims
Here we class together two managers who are skippering out the string on an interim basis: Grady Sizemore with the White Sox and Freddie Benavides in Cincy. Sizemore is 8-31 as White Sox manager, but, well, it's hard to judge anyone tasked with wrenching wins from one of the worst rosters in modern MLB history. With the Reds, Benavides has just five games to leave an impression on lead decision-maker Nick Krall, and it will of course be difficult to do that. The guess here is that the clubs move on from each interim before next season, but the situation is of course fluid. Early scuttle has it that Krall has eyes for the aforementioned Schumaker.
The possible playoff floppers
Might some otherwise successful managers be at risk if their respective teams don't enjoy a deep playoff run next month? We speak of Dave Roberts of the Dodgers, Aaron Boone of the Yankees, and Brandon Hyde of the Orioles. Given the trio's success this season and to varying extents in recent seasons, the default assumption should be that all three are safe no matter how the playoffs unfold (let's note that Hyde's Orioles have yet to clinch a berth). But what if one of these managers oversees an early exit? The Dodgers, with all their winter maneuverings and star-laden roster, are heavily committed to winning the World Series in a full season for the first time since 1988. The Yankees want to make good on Juan Soto's walk year and end what qualifies as a title drought by their standards. The O's and their deeply impressive young core flopped last postseason, and fans and front office are no doubt pining for a pennant. Maybe there's more heat on these skippers than you might think.
