Player Outlook
Mitch Keller earned his first career All-Star nod in 2023 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 19 starts during the first half, but he fell apart after the break with a 5.59 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 13 outings. The good news is that the right-hander stayed mostly healthy and set a career high with 194.1 innings, and he also improved his strikeout rate to 25.5 percent and walk rate to 6.7 percent. Keller also may have received some unfortunate results, as indicated by a 3.83 SIERA and 3.70 xFIP compared to a 4.21 ERA. Despite the struggles down the stretch in 2023, it's a season to build on as he enters his age-28 campaign. Keller certainly shouldn't be the ace of a staff but is a strong option to round out a rotation for fantasy managers in 2024, especially if he can maintain the decent strikeout and win (13) totals.

Fantasy Stats

Year fpts
Fantasy Points
fpts/g
Fantasy Points per Game
ip
Innings Pitched
w
Wins
l
Losses
sv
Saves
so
Strikeouts
bb
Base on Balls (Walk)
era
Earned Run Average
whip
Walks and Hits Allowed Per Inning
2024 0.00 0.00
2023 44313.8 194.3 13 9 210 55 4.21 1.25
2022 2578.3 159.0 5 12 138 60 3.91 1.40
3y Avg. 260.59 151.3 8 11 147 55 4.52 1.42
Projections Powered by
Fantasy Performance by Week
92%
Roster
83%
Start
#40
SP Rank

Fantasy News

  • Pirates' Mitch Keller: Not worried about decreased velo

    Keller sat between 90-92 mph for much of his spring training outing Wednesday against the Orioles, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports. The decreased velocity is a red flag not only for his potential level of performance but also as a potential indication of injury. However, he completed four innings -- his longest outing of the spring -- and told reporters after the game that he wasn't worried and that his velocity would ramp back up as the intensity of games increased. Though his results were inconsistent, Keller is coming off a breakout season during which he struck out 210 batters across 194.1 innings, and he'll take the mound on Opening Day against the Marlins.
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  • Pirates' Mitch Keller: Draws Opening Day nod

    Pirates manager Derek Shelton said Thursday that Keller will serve as the club's Opening Day starter March 28 in Miami, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. Shelton's announcement was seemingly a foregone conclusion after Keller signed a five-year, $77 million contract extension -- the largest for a pitcher in franchise history -- just hours earlier. Though Keller is the Pirates' No. 1 starter, he likely profiles as more of a depth arm for most fantasy pitching staffs after he went 13-9 with a 4.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 210:55 K:BB in 194.1 innings over his 32 starts a season ago.
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  • Pirates' Mitch Keller: Nabs five-year contract extension

    Keller agreed to a five-year contract extension with the Pirates on Thursday, Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com report. Keller avoided arbitration for 2024 with a one-year, $5.44 million contract last month, but the new deal cancels out that agreement and will take effect beginning this season, per Alex Stumpf of MLB.com. The deal is worth $77 million in total and will buy out what would have been the first two years of Keller's free agency. Keller, who turns 28 in April, is coming off a 2023 campaign in which he won 13 games while posting a 4.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 210:55 K:BB across 194.1 innings covering 32 starts.
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  • Pirates' Mitch Keller: Avoids arbitration

    Keller signed a one-year, $5.4425 million contract with the Pirates on Thursday to avoid arbitration, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports. Keller got off to a hot start last season, but he posted a 5.59 ERA in 77.1 innings after the All-Star break. Despite his late struggles, Keller remains a viable fantasy option after racking up 210 strikeouts in 194.1 frames and 13 wins in 2023.
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  • Pirates' Mitch Keller: Gets early shutdown

    Keller will not start Sunday's season finale against the Marlins, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. Keller would have been on normal rest for the matchup in Miami, but he's already thrown a career-high 194.1 innings this season and the Pirates will go ahead and shut him down a bit early. The 27-year-old right-hander showed promising flashes at times in 2023 while delivering an overall 13-9 record, 4.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 210:55 K:BB across those 194.1 frames.
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  • Pirates' Mitch Keller: Punches out six in no-decision

    Keller did not factor into the decision Tuesday against the Phillies, allowing two runs on three hits and two walks over six innings. He struck out six. September has been an inconsistent and bumpy ride for Keller so far. In five starts, he has two outings where he's allowed seven or more runs and three where he's conceded two runs or fewer. Overall this month, the 27-year-old pitcher sports a 5.28 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 31:7 K:BB over 30.2 innings. Keller is currently scheduled to start the last Pirates game of the season in Miami on Sunday.
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  • Pirates' Mitch Keller: Hurls eight shutout innings

    Keller (12-9) earned the win Thursday, allowing two hits and one walk over eight scoreless innings against Washington while striking out seven. Keller was spectacular, allowing only two singles all night -- and one of those came in the first at-bat of the game. It was a great bounce-back performance after the right-hander had matched his season high with eight runs allowed in his previous outing, and Thursday's start marked the third time this season he's gone at least eight innings. Keller has won three of his last four decisions (spanning five starts), posting a 37:6 K:BB over that stretch.
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  • Pirates' Mitch Keller: Crushed in Atlanta

    Keller (11-9) yielded eight runs on 12 hits over five innings Friday, striking out four and taking a loss against Atlanta. Keller didn't allow a lot of hard contact, but things began to unravel when Atlanta strung together six singles in the third inning. He also gave up eight runs against the Brewers on Aug. 3 but had allowed just eight total runs in his following five starts. His ERA rose to 4.23 with a 191:51 K:BB through 174.2 frames. Keller is projected to face the Nationals at home next week.
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  • Pirates' Mitch Keller: Continues hot stretch on mound

    Keller did not factor into the decision Friday, allowing one run on five hits and three walks over six innings while striking out eight batters in the Pirates' 4-2 extra-inning win over the Cardinals. Keller tossed five scoreless frames before Willson Contreras took him deep for a solo shot to open the bottom of the sixth inning, providing the only blemish on the right-hander's line. The 27-year-old has now recorded four straight quality starts, producing a 1.38 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with 33 strikeouts over 26 inning during that stretch. Keller's season-long ERA now sits at 3.93 over 169.2 frames in 28 outings.
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  • Pirates' Mitch Keller: Dominates with eight scoreless

    Keller (11-8) earned the win Friday, allowing four hits and one walk over eight scoreless innings against the Cubs. He struck out six. Keller needed only 93 pitches to complete eight innings, which marked his second longest outing of the season in stifling the Cubs to earn his 11th win, and he might have been allowed to go for the complete-game shutout if he hadn't taken a comebacker off the leg in the eighth. Keller did finish the frame, however. The first-time All-Star had struggled in his first five starts following the break with a 9.11 ERA over 26.2 innings. However, in his past three starts he's regained his form, allowing only three earned runs with 25 strikeouts in 20 innings for a 1.35 ERA. Keller will look to continue rolling in his next start, currently scheduled to take place next Wednesday in Kansas City.
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  • Pirates' Mitch Keller: Strikes out 12 in winning effort

    Keller improved to 10-8 after striking out 12 and allowing two earned runs on seven hits and a walk across six innings in Saturday's 7-4 win over the Twins. Keller had a rough three-start stretch coming out of the All-Star break but seems to have emerged out of the slump. He dominated the Twins to rack up his highest strikeout total in a game since May 14 and backed the effort with 18 swinging strikes. Keller has gotten back on track across his last three outings, maintaining a 3.18 ERA with a 23:4 K:BB across 17 frames.
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  • Pirates' Mitch Keller: Fans seven in no-decision

    Keller allowed two runs (one earned) on five hits and three walks over six innings in a Game 1 victory during Sunday's doubleheader against the Reds. He struck out seven and did not factor in the decision. Keller gave up one run in the fourth and fifth innings during his first quality start since July 8. He coughed up eight homers in his five previous outings since July 8, resulting in a brutal 9.11 ERA. Keller lowered his season ERA to 4.27 with a 161:46 K:BB across 149.2 innings. His next start is lined up to be in Minnesota.
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  • Pirates' Mitch Keller: Strikes out eight in loss

    Keller (9-7) took the loss Friday, allowing two runs on six hits and three walks over 5.2 innings against the Phillies. He struck out eight. Keller recorded at least eight strikeouts for the ninth time across 22 starts this season, but he finished one out away from a quality start and suffered his seventh loss. The right-hander came into the contest having allowed 14 runs over his past two starts, so Friday's outing was certainly a bounce-back performance, though still not good enough to pull out a win against Zack Wheeler and the Phillies. At one point, Keller was in the midst of a breakout campaign and the Pirates were contending for a division title, but his recent struggles have marred some of the excellent work he did earlier in the campaign. Either way, with 145 strikeouts he's already eclipsed the career-high mark he set last year (138) and is poised to continue adding to that total despite Pittsburgh falling completely out of the playoff picture.
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  • Pirates' Mitch Keller: Roughed up in loss

    Keller (9-6) allowed six runs on nine hits and a walk over five innings Sunday, striking out seven and taking a loss against the Angels. Keller turned in another poor performance, this time highlighted by a season-high three home runs allowed. His ERA has jumped from 3.31 to 4.01 with him giving up 14 runs over his last two starts. The 27-year-old righty has posted a 5.51 ERA over his last 11 outings. Keller will look to turn things around in his next start, which is currently projected to be at home against the Phillies.
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  • Pirates' Mitch Keller: Tagged for eight Tuesday

    Keller (9-5) took the loss Tuesday, allowing eight runs on 10 hits and two walks over six innings against the Guardians. He struck out one. Cleveland did most of its damage against Keller early, putting up a five-spot on the right-hander in the first inning. It's a tough start to the second half for Keller, who posted a 2.16 ERA in his final four starts before the break. Overall, his ERA is up to 3.73 with a 1.16 WHIP and 130:36 K:BB through 20 starts (123 innings) this season. Keller will look to bounce back in his next outing, currently scheduled for next week in San Diego.
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  • Pirates' Mitch Keller: Tosses seven scoreless frames

    Keller did not factor in the decision against Arizona on Saturday, tossing seven scoreless innings during which he allowed one hit and five walks while striking out four batters. Keller was a bit wild in the contest, throwing just 57 of 99 pitches for a strike and walking a season-high five hitters. However, the free passes didn't hurt him since he didn't allow more than one in any frame and yielded just one hit (a sixth-inning single by Ketel Marte). Following a rough patch in late May and early June, Keller has notched four quality starts over his past six outings, a span during which he's posted a 2.68 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The right-hander heads into the All-Star break in the midst of a career-best campaign in which he's recorded a 3.31 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 129:34 K:BB over 117 innings to go along with a 9-4 record.
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  • Pirates' Mitch Keller: Takes fourth loss

    Keller (9-4) took the loss Monday versus the Dodgers, allowing five runs (four earned) on eight hits and a walk while striking out seven over five innings. The Dodgers did their damage early in the game, as they managed just one hit over three innings versus two Pirates relievers. Keller had a couple of stumbles in June -- he's allowed exactly one run in three of his last six starts, but he's also given up at least four runs in the other three outings in that span. The right-hander is now at a 3.52 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 125:29 K:BB through 110 innings over 18 starts. Keller is projected for a road start this weekend against the Diamondbacks.
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  • Pirates' Mitch Keller: Picks up ninth win

    Keller (9-3) allowed one earned run on four hits and two walks while striking out five across six innings to earn the win Wednesday against the Padres. Keller allowed a pair of hitters to reach base in each oh his first two innings but settled in to quiet the Padres thereafter. Despite generating fewer swings-and-misses of late -- he had only three swinging strikes across 104 total pitches Wednesday -- he has allowed only one earned run in three of his last four starts. Keller is also tied for fourth in the majors with nine wins, and he's picked up four positive decisions in his last seven outings.
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  • Pirates' Mitch Keller: Excellent in no-decision

    Keller allowed one run on five hits and no walks while striking out five batters over seven innings in Thursday's no-decision against Miami. Miami starter Braxton Garrett made more noise with 13 strikeouts, but Keller matched him on the scoreboard with just one earned run over seven frames. The Pittsburgh hurler allowed only extra-base hit (a double) and notched his 10th quality start of the campaign, tied for ninth-most in the league. While Keller has had some bumps of late -- he came into Thursday with a 6.14 ERA and 1.50 WHIP across his past five starts -- he's still putting up a career-best campaign overall. Through 16 starts, he's already notched a career-best eight wins while posting a 3.45 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 113:26 K:BB over 99 innings.
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  • Pirates' Mitch Keller: Taken down by Brewers

    Keller (8-3) took the loss against Milwaukee on Saturday, allowing four runs on five hits and three walks while striking out seven batters over five innings. Keller yielded a pair of two-run innings, which was enough to send him to defeat in a game during which Pittsburgh couldn't push any runs across the plate. The right-hander has given up four or more runs in four of his past five starts after doing so only once through his initial 10 outings. The rough stretch has pushed his season ERA to 3.62 after it sat at 2.44 less than a month ago. Keller is still racking up strikeouts -- he's fanned at least seven all but once during the recent downturn -- so it's likely wise to stick with him in most fantasy formats to see if he's able to turn things around. He's tentatively lined up for a road start in Miami his next time out.
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