Where there's smoke, there's fire, and that appears to be the case with Brandon Aiyuk. After months of public and private back-and-forth with the San Francisco 49ers, the disgruntled wide receiver has received permission to negotiate a contract with other teams, as NBC Sports Bay Area reported, and the 49ers have already agreed to the framework of trades with both the Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots.
A deal may not be imminent, according to ESPN, as Aiyuk has "balked so far at multiple offers" from potential acquiring teams. The 49ers' willingness to field offers and allow Aiyuk to talk with other clubs, however, signals the All-Pro pass catcher is closer to leaving town than he's ever been.
What happens if he comes to terms with the Browns or Patriots, and a blockbuster swap comes to fruition?
SportsLine's Stephen Oh projects the following impacts, using updated 2024 season simulations:
The Patriots would gain the most by acquiring Aiyuk, with a nearly 14% increase in projected win total (5.1 to 5.8) and a doubling of their playoff chances (2.5% to 5.1%). Which makes sense considering New England is in rebuild mode with a new coach and quarterback. The downside: The Patriots have "such a low starting point ... nowhere near contention," per Oh, that even Aiyuk's addition doesn't significantly move the needle for postseason hopes. That could factor into the wideout's own thinking here.
The Browns' playoff hopes look significantly better if they acquire Aiyuk, per SportsLine's projections, as their chances of making the postseason rise 7.1%, while their AFC championship chances go from 1.7% to 2.6%, though they'd still be major long shots to win it all; even Aiyuk's addition would only give them a 1.3% chance of claiming the Super Bowl in 2024, per the simulations.
The 49ers would see clear decreases across the board in terms of win-total and playoff chances, but their drop-off isn't as drastic as the forecast increase to other teams due to San Francisco's already-vaunted roster, which added first-round wide receiver Ricky Pearsall this spring. Their projected win total of 11.5 drops to just 11.2, while their conference title chances take the biggest hit, declining 4.6%.
